ENERGY!

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OCTOBER 16,2014    I saw so many reversals in the markets yesterday that I had to do a double take! I think the selling has exhausted and the moves upward from here can be an explosive mix of short covering and also buyers jumping back in to make some fast % gains. I want to focus mainly on ENERGY, since it was beaten down relentlessly, it may recover equally well.  We all need ENERGY, right? It got ridiculously overdone... In PRE-MKT the markets are again down a lot.  They are set for another GAP DOWN, but its worth  watching intraday.  Yesterday we gapped down and and reversed strongly, will we do that again?  Is it a buying opportunity?  To The Charts!   (I apologize if you're short on time, This is a long report recording, you may just want to review the charts quickly on your own) http://www.screencast.com/t/3xozpTzUwo  - Right click link  , then open in a new tab - look for 'download' and click it, then click "OPEN" and it should play automatically   XLE XLE   That Extreme type of parabolic drop and sudden sharp reversal should be seen throughout the sector, lets examine several  more charts ...   Read More

Quick Market Update

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Oct 15, 2014     In the comments section of this mornings post , Michael-K just asked me about the markets. His friend is invested heavily and has taken the recent ride down...what to do? I thought I'd try to post a quick comment or two.   Right Click here / click 'down load' and  click 'OPEN' to  play   SPX WKLY   SPX   Read More

We’ve Been ‘Conditioned’

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OCT 15, 2014   I wanted to try something this morning , and that was to record the session and see if you could all follow along that way.  I had my reservations, because I have a Boston accent, but hopefully you'll be able to understand me despite that.  I have taken extra time to also write out the notes, for those unable to hear this recording.  When I listened back to it, there was a bit of a click sound at times, I apologize, but for the sake of time, I cannot re-record it this morning. I DO NOT know what it was, I was sitting still, but it sounded like I was tappping or scratching at the microphone  (I wasnt )  This morning when I started recording  (7:30 A.M. Eastern) GOLD was down almost $10 and $Silver was down over 30 cents ...they have since recovered after 8:30.  Whether that holds or maybe we sell off later, this report is likely still valid, so I am posting it even though they recovered.  Below is the original report . (  For the recording link below  ...It is best to 1. right click over the link and open in a new tab.  2.  In that nw tab, you'll see "Download", click that  3. your options to 'save' or 'open'...just click open and it will play automatically go back to this website and follow along.   IF You arent good with computers, you can just read what I have written. Right Click here for the    AUDIO CLIP    GOLD    - Gold was down $10 in Pre-Mkt and I visited message boards . I kept hearing all over Yahoo, Kitco, etc  " Here we go, another slam down", but We are not even at the 10 or 20 sma, and we could be testing out magenta trend-line. So selling today would not be bad...look back at MAY and DEC. During those runs, we often dropped to the 10 & 20sma on the way up.     GOLD OCT 14     Read More

BOTTOM HUNTING PART 2

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OCT 14, 2014   Since pointing out a few of the things that I look for to "Indicate" a possible trade-able bottom is near, we have had some improvement and I wanted to point those things out. I also have received concerns (Interesting) that some feel they may be missing the move if they havent taken a position, others who have are feeling anxious a bit too ,that  'it's not working' . That seems to lead to questions like , 1. "Are things O.K., feels like we are just going sideways?" 2. Doesnt this look like a possible bear flag?                And 3. "Do you think it's too late?"   4. "Should I just jump in now?"   Read More

BOTTOM HUNTING

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October 13  2014      Often you will hear the expression  "Dont try to catch a falling knife" when a sector or stock is relentlessly selling off. In the past few years , we have seen it repeatedly happen in the Precious Metals sector, and most of you are ware that we had some significant lows in place on June 2013, Dec 2013, May 2014.   I have been saying that I think we are at another significant low  (If you follow Cycles, you know it as an ICL) .   Is it possible that we could go lower, instead of trading off the current lows put in after last weeks FED MINUTES?   Of course, but are there ways to look at  - actually  look INTO -  the markets,  and try to gain some insights as to what may be currently happening.  I want to show you what I look at in times like these...it is by no means guess work. Starting with SILVER   Starting with SILVERS break down, most see it as a "Continuation" pattern  (And it may be).   SILVER continuation   Sometimes a move like that can just "Run the stops" set at those levels to "Shake out" weak hands. If THAT was the case, you would expect SILVER to do more than just "Back test" that broken floor. Look at my next chart of Silver Below...   Read More

For Any Who Followed This Trade

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OCT 10    Midday  Sold Partial position in APT,  liberal stop set on the rest .

 

APT SELL today

 

   I dont usually post my “Sells” , I leave it to the reader to trade at their own risk / reward formula.  I just wanted to point out that THIS  is now extended 150% above the 50sma, since it went up over 100% in just this week.   It is possible that It may just go sideways for a while and allow moving averages to catch up  ( like VIMC did when I sold that), but taking some money off of the table is usually wise here.

Yes – VIMC has dropped & moved sideways to the 13 & the 20sma in the past couple of weeks, holding up well.  It is actually there now, so it’s even  a tad  higher now than where I sold it! Holding may have been ok for that one , but who can tell?  locking in at least partial profits is prudent when they get this overdone.   Look at DGLY  , for example.

ATTENTION ALL TRADERS

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OCT 10    

—Have you ever been skating on ice and suddenly you notice a big crack?  How about a HUGE CRACK? 

We may want to keep that  PANIC  BUTTON  handy.  THIS just raised its ugly head.

 

                                                                         CAUTION WARRANTED!

No – Not Yet

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Oct 10,2014     As I start writing before 7 a.m.,  Futures are down quite a bit     I Got a funny email, it said,  "With this sell off- When will you know that you're wrong?"  - LOL  Now I assume that the writer just worded that wrong and was really trying to say, "When would you know if this sell off was more than the normal correction that you expected?"  OR   Was that just a  Freudian slip  and the writer is telling me I AM wrong - when are you going to know that ?     Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is "Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off? When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong.  The best way to follow it is....TO THE CHARTS!! QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)   QQQ Sell Off   Despite the cries of things getting scary - The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally   Read More

WELCOME BACK!

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Oct 9, 2014     WELL!!!   I thought that I should offer up an idea or two intraday since the color RED is the color of the day . I do NOT want to become a  'BUY & HOLD' or 'WISH & HOPE' kind of trader...I look to see if I can see whats happening and when a trade starts to act in a way that I didnt expect, I have to try my best to numb the "EMOTIONS" and just look at the facts. So I snapped this PIC of an intraday chart ,  the sell off of GDX today.   Its NOT meant to be grasping at straws or "HOPING" I'm right...its just what is happening , What I see right now.   GDX 50 percent      As you can see, GDX and GDXJ have pulled back to very 'RED' for the day - But they are only about 1/2 way into that move off of Lows yesterday, almost a "Test" of the top of a cup.   Read More

NOT AGAIN?

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OCT 9, 2014     WAIT! Is the train leaving the station again?  Should I jump on - or - Is this quick reversal just a Fed induced pipe dream , only to suck in longs and pull the rug out from under them?  Those are good questions and who can know for sure? No one, really.  HOWEVER  if we look for "Clues" - maybe it can shed light on the matter. I am going to continue on the theme that I started in the report  entitled " Its An Illusions"  (Click "illusions" to read it)   Illusions . In that report , I was discussing how it seems that while everyone is being encouraged to "Look at GOLD & SILVER" crashing, Some  Miners were holding up, apparently  being accumulated. I want to re-visit that idea here, since the selling has escalated since I wrote that on Sept 25th, 2 weeks ago. Have things changed much? Lets see....   GDX certainly has joined in the sell off type move. You can see it bleeding 5 weeks in a row here (This wkly chart was as of last week).   GDX WEEKLY   And look at this chart below!    Read More