NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP….BUT!!
June 20, 2014 Well, I have been mentioning in MAY that I was expecting a “MEANINGFUL LOW” (an ICL in cycle terms) in GOLD SILVER & the MINERS. As expected, what an explosive move since I last wrote! GDXJ has been amazing and some of the MIners stocks have been extremely strong and profitable. I have been using Twitter to tweet thoughts daily while this website was being worked on a little ( Does it look a little cleaner, faster, stronger? The guys have done well 
) I just want to show a few things that I am looking at briefly- and then I will do a full report this weekend.
First, As posted in my last Gold reports, I always look at many things as we move forward to gauge where we MAY be going. I was watching this behind the scenes to give me an Idea of what MIGHT happen as GOLD attempted a “Test” of June 2013 & DEC 2013 lows. I thought to myself…“THIS could be a “Double Bottom” June & Dec 2013 – OR – are we about to see a “Triple Bottom Low” Test? What might I watch for?” I found this and compared as we dipped down.
Those Meaningful Lows are IN. Gold played it cool, but the MINERS were screaming , “GET READY” since they usually lead. My weekend report will cover a few ideas moving forward, but for now there are a few quick things to observe.
A quick review for educational purposes. With the GDX / GDXJ ETF’s acting VERY Bullish, I mentioned that GOLD looked ready to move up (Chart below June 5) , but we should watch for 1 of two paths. Updated June 9 ( the Chart below that chart) Good news, The measured move in Gold may be complete AND GOLD was more oversold than in Dec’s Lows.
June 9, GDXJ was breaking out and the move could be big- That was a good entry point, your stop could be underneath IF THE MOVE was a fake out. Some Miners already showed LEADERSHIP, indicating that Lows could be in. In my last report (Please read it if you havent) I listed some interesting Miners (They have had great %-Gains since then)
I Tweeted that THIS was great follow (and many were missing it) through by JUNE 10
I heard so many saying they couldnt wait to short this baby, and I pointed out my target –
THAT Being the case, a Stealth move in Miners, we got our GOLD ‘bounce’ , but I expected that GOLD was building steam for a SURGE HIGHER Also , as noted on the chart (It certainly came yesterday!)
MANY MINERS are now too overheated to jump in. Look at MVG, SAND , FSM for example. They look like they have just formed the infamous CUP of a “CUP & HANDLE” move. They are overbought, but a nice HANDLE ‘TEST’ of their break outs could offer your next entry. I will post those buy set ups here. ( For now, Some laggers may play “Catch up” and still show reasonable low risk entries). Picture this if you will… It may prevent you from CHASING and BUYING HIGH
I trade out of overheated ones, and often put some of that money to work in Laggers. For example, SILVER has just broken its down trend line. SILVER is supposed to be at its all time highs for being “SHORTED”. SO look at FSM and MVG again (silver stocks) , then I bought GPL because it was set up correctly. It has BASED for a year
AND SVLC had a higher price target
The other day I added AXU , as a LAGGER and Tweeted this yesterday
SO for now , I use a trailing stop & lock in some profits too. These WILL CORRECT. As for the statement… “These cannot go higher, I am shorting here!!” I am still hearing that. And then I hear , “I am adding shorts all the way up”. That makes me nervous. The signs are that this is a very strong move and I am reminded to “let the markets tell you what THEY want to do”.
Please be VERY CAREFUL with these impulsive moves up of OVERHATED Commodities (and allow the charts of JO & UNG to remind you of that).
Thanks for reading! Please check back for a wkend report sometime before Mondays open , there is so much more to say 
( and please Tweet this to any that you think may enjoy reading ).
~ALEX
UPDATE Just a quick thought, the way I am seeing things before the close FRIDAY. I got a few emails asking if I am buying DUST or shorting this down day. Some think it is the start of a ROLLOVER. I do not see it that way , rallys get extended and pause, bull flag, pullback to consolidate gains. At times, they encourage Bears to return & short trying to catch the top. It COULD BE ready to drop… However Since GOLD/SILVER JUST BROKE OUT, I believe they will continue to rise and MINERS are not done either (My opinion, I will point out expectations in the weekend report) For Right Now…I will show you what I see and you must do as you see fit.
Following my Tweets this week , you saw me examining things in smaller time frames. I watch 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute , 2hr, 4 hr etc etc etc . I Had re-entered JNUG and posted these 2 charts showing another chance or two to Re-Enter JNUG / Go Long — Fairly low risk because your stops were right below the trend line. (Please click charts to enlarge, hit Esc to return)
Well….This is that same GDXJ chart after this “Huge ” drop. Most “break outs” get tested and Gaps fill, but sometimes that is all you get. On a Daily it could build a bull flag? Move price back under the B.B.’s? Set up for Higher prices? With GOLD / SILVER just now breaking out, I would still be cautious heading into the weekend “SHORT”.
Finally, look at GDX daily. On the last RUN UP in Dec, we did have a steep GAP GAP period. It reversed the next day too…was it Time to short? It was not.
Each must trade the way He / She sees things unfolding. I will have a weekend report that explains why I am still very bullish, despite over bought conditions. (Likely Sunday night or Monday, I have family stuff this weekend ) 
Enjoy your weekend !
~ALEX
Great stuff. It’s all here, documented in full and of course very relevant for those who also caught it, regardless of whether miners are down 90% from their highs!
Great stuff. It’s all here, documented in full and of course very relevant for those who also caught it, regardless of whether miners are down 90% from their highs!
Simonsays…thx for reading and it’s true…they may be down 90% off their highs, but the best time to invest is often times like that. I look at JO and UNG charts and those hated, beaten down commodities paid off very well. Thx again for stopping by :
Simonsays…thx for reading and it’s true…they may be down 90% off their highs, but the best time to invest is often times like that. I look at JO and UNG charts and those hated, beaten down commodities paid off very well. Thx again for stopping by :
Yes, absolutely. You have helped a lot of people with your postings by showing people exactly what to look for. Keep up the great work!
Yes, absolutely. You have helped a lot of people with your postings by showing people exactly what to look for. Keep up the great work!
Alex, You’ve made some fantastic call over the last month. Props to you, Brother!
I can’t wait for your weekend report.
Thx Rob – You comment on every article, I feel like you are here more than me : )
Thx for checking in & Thanks for sending me that ICHI chart, that was some great confirmation !
Alex, You’ve made some fantastic call over the last month. Props to you, Brother!
I can’t wait for your weekend report.
Thx Rob – You comment on every article, I feel like you are here more than me : )
Thx for checking in & Thanks for sending me that ICHI chart, that was some great confirmation !
Alex, What parameters do you use to design a trailing stop? That is, how do you keep from being stopped out when it turns out to be a pullback?
Jenny , Thats an excellent question, since Miners do tend to rise & fall steeply. Its also a tough one to answer because I tend to adjust it accordingly with various trades.
My trailing stop is loose & often a “Mental” stop if I am in front of my computer and in an uptrend. Sometimes it is trend-line support (if it closes below it) sometimes I use the moving averages, etc. It also depends on WHEN / Where I GET IN. ( Using cycle timing coming off of the lows , I also tighten up more as the timing gets too long [say 15- 20 days off of the bottom in a strong run] because a pullback ( or at least sideways chop) is more likely to occur for a week or so.
So when I enter a trade, its not a random entry & usually my stop is tighter & quite close below my entry, as it runs and more profit is added, its a loose / mental stop that I sell when I see something indicating that it may be losing steam.
These are just the shorter term trades. In a BULL MKT , say the BULL in Gold returns, I buy some CORE positions near the bottom, and I will just let them do as they will, as long as they do not go red. Break even . Hope that helped a bit?
Yes, That helps. I see the thought process changes depending where one is in the cycle. I’ll keep that more in focus.
Thats Exactly it Jenny. Especially at the bottom of an ICL (first cycle low) or even the 2nd Daily Cycle, I just try to ride it out, knowing there is more upside likely, but when you enter a 3rd DCycle or especially a 4th –they tend to be weaker & I collect gains after the 8th day or so and watch how it reacts from there.
Alex, What parameters do you use to design a trailing stop? That is, how do you keep from being stopped out when it turns out to be a pullback?
Jenny , Thats an excellent question, since Miners do tend to rise & fall steeply. Its also a tough one to answer because I tend to adjust it accordingly with various trades.
My trailing stop is loose & often a “Mental” stop if I am in front of my computer and in an uptrend. Sometimes it is trend-line support (if it closes below it) sometimes I use the moving averages, etc. It also depends on WHEN / Where I GET IN. ( Using cycle timing coming off of the lows , I also tighten up more as the timing gets too long [say 15- 20 days off of the bottom in a strong run] because a pullback ( or at least sideways chop) is more likely to occur for a week or so.
So when I enter a trade, its not a random entry & usually my stop is tighter & quite close below my entry, as it runs and more profit is added, its a loose / mental stop that I sell when I see something indicating that it may be losing steam.
These are just the shorter term trades. In a BULL MKT , say the BULL in Gold returns, I buy some CORE positions near the bottom, and I will just let them do as they will, as long as they do not go red. Break even . Hope that helped a bit?
Yes, That helps. I see the thought process changes depending where one is in the cycle. I’ll keep that more in focus.
Thats Exactly it Jenny. Especially at the bottom of an ICL (first cycle low) or even the 2nd Daily Cycle, I just try to ride it out, knowing there is more upside likely, but when you enter a 3rd DCycle or especially a 4th –they tend to be weaker & I collect gains after the 8th day or so and watch how it reacts from there.
Alex, great stuff. Convincing logic, thorough analysis. I consider this a “must read” for anyone trading in this sector.
-Cason
Cason, I really appreciate your taking the time to read it and then to give that kindly review. I really do hope it helps people to at least have another set of eyes looking at things and they can balance that with what they see.
Thx again for the kind words!
Alex, great stuff. Convincing logic, thorough analysis. I consider this a “must read” for anyone trading in this sector.
-Cason
Cason, I really appreciate your taking the time to read it and then to give that kindly review. I really do hope it helps people to at least have another set of eyes looking at things and they can balance that with what they see.
Thx again for the kind words!