Dont worry – There’ll Be Another One

JUNE 13 –  Update

If you had a chance to read my last 2 reports discussing Gold/Miners , then you know I was expecting a low almost immediately and possibly even what we call an ICL  (A Very Meaningful Low that produces a Nice invest-able rally).  Almost EVERY newsletter I read insisted that we remember that due to Golds “Seasonality” and that “Gold always bottoms in the Summer”, we should   ‘go short’ or wait.    ‘$Gold $1000.00  ‘ was and still is everywhere.   As someone who likes to be a contrarian, I posted this chart to show that anything is possible  ( Notice that $HUI Bottomed 2 yrs in a row in MAY)  and  I mentioned that I was seeing a bottom closing in rapidly.  Many Miners were forming Lows using various indicators that I use and Bases were forming also.  My last report advised that I was getting  ready for a rally, and you may want to think twice about shorting.


MINERS bottomed in MAY 2 yrs in a row-




Immediately after posting my report , we saw a rather striking Rally in Miners, especially Juniors.  Some say its “Only short covering”, is it?  Will it pullback soon?  Should I go short, or just buy a pullback? Was THIS the Train leaving the station & did I miss it??  Lets review…



In the past, I have seen this before and will show you a couple of possibilities to hopefully take advantage of future moves. As always , NO ONE knows for sure, so I dont get too rigid in any “Bias”, but I look for clues / look for ideas and have a game plan. Thats the best you can do sometimes.  I DO now think that meaningful low that I was looking for is ‘in’ for Miners – but this is just a quick update so I will get to that another time.   QUICK UPDATE…


JUNE 5 – I had my initial LONG position, and I Tweeted this. Notice the writing in the upper right inside the chart.


GDXJ June 5


The break above that line resulted in a large rally above $39!!

A combo of Short covering & technical buying is my opinion.


GDXJ June 13



Should you just JUMP IN NOW? Is the Train leaving the station??  Well, actually THAT was my price projection & I sold all my JNUG there. So here is what I’d be watching for a chance at re-entry  (If the pullback is slow & lighter volume , I may also add on the way down).  NOTE what happened in GDX  at the last ICL (meaningful low) in DEC 2013-  which I think we are likely seeing here. Price would rise, Drop to Tag the 13sma, and rise again , and then drop to tag the 13sma



TAG 10sma


But is there a way to gauge when the pullbacks will come??  There are clues or “Likely” places, but it still also depends on MANY MANY things that I look for & the strength of the move and the timing.  Notice here what happened anytime JNUG, for example, got ahead of itself in that DECEMBER rally.  It raced outside the Bollinger Bands for 2 days ….THEN… went to its BUY POINT 





Sometimes it moves in a steep drop, sometimes its a sideways move. In the past it has depended on several factors during the rally. Here is also the GDXJ (But I removed the Bollinger Bands for clarity) . I drew this on Wednesday, expected a $39, then a drop to possibly tag the 50 & 20sma coming together as support.



gdxj projection


Guaranteed to play out this way??   NO WAY!  This is me looking at past rallies and trying to get an idea of how GDX / GDXJ might “react” to being overbought short term.  This was a STRONG MOVE!!  GDXJ blew thru the 50 & 200SMA….200SMA may now be support. Maybe it goes sideways to the 10sma? Or maybe shorts think its done and re-enter pushing it right down to that 50sma ? There are also “Clues” on the way back down that indicate if it is safe to buy or not.  I will likely be posting or tweeting as time goes on.


  Lets also review ( just a couple) of charts that I posted in Monday nights report. These were from Friday June 6ths close.  They ran very well so far , and could be GREAT buying opportunities as they pullback too.  I posted NG, ANV, AUY among others. These arent my Favorites- but I had bought them so lets update the charts.  Possibly I will start posting many charts of set ups & buy points in the future… I cant tell what the readers here want?





NG Updated June 13



ANV update

ANV  updated June 13


AUY update


Those are just a few of this weeks moves  (Some 30 – 35%). There are / were many more and you can see from those charts, this only looks like the start of the bigger move if we have bottomed.  In other words,  the Train hasnt COMPLETELY left the station – there are always pullbacks along the way  (In fact, as I write, it seems to be backing up a little so more can step on ).


My usual words of caution :  ANYTHING can happen in the stock-market. There are ‘expectations’ and ‘likely possibilities’, but  we need to Stay Alert / Stay Frosty   and listen to the market when it speaks to you.  When it changes directions and tells you that it is serious, we seriously need to listen  (or risk losing profits) . I expect a “Pullback” after a nice rally, but if that pullback gets too serious….get out of the way.


I hope I’ve helped to see what I am looking for in this sector.   Thanks for reading along & I appreciate the feedback I have been getting on the site and in Messages elsewhere!!  Thumbs up  ~ Alex  



8 replies
  1. Bunker
    Bunker says:

    Thanks for these great charts and careful analysis. You may remember I had trouble accessing your report. The solution was to clear my history–all of it.

  2. deshy
    deshy says:

    “I cant tell what the readers here want?”…I think you’re doing a great job!!
    I like the way you’re presenting both the general overview of things to look for and some specific names. So from my perspective…that’s what I want. Maybe a bit more on your general sell signals like the above article. Thanks for the awesome work!

    • alex
      alex says:

      Deshy_ Thank you & really thank you for replying to my thinking out loud!
      I have various methods of Entry & Exit – price projections and more . They Also can change as the markets play out (For example, In the article I discuss GDX pullbacks , etc – but take a look at a few miners (Nova Gold NG or even NGD for example) . I am seeing many just in a little run away move (Short covering, Buyers piling in). They WILL pullback eventually, but now? Maybe, but also It would not surprise me if Maybe GDXJ begins a run away move too. (And SILVER is at record short positions – this could get explosive). THIS would leave people behind, because no one likes to chase after yrs of losses trying. SO I am always thinking of alternate possibilities.

      Your advice above will be in my mind next time I write. Thx!

    • alex
      alex says:

      Hi Salmon, Thx for reading!

      As a trader, it is tricky, because I may re-enter , and then exit if it doesnt play out as it appeared…some of my readers work full time & would possibly catch that I re-entered & follow me, and then miss the ‘sell’ while they’re at work. Maybe I need to think about laying out a game plan ahead of time in writing, so that my readers can understand the trade (And not just follow without an exit plan).

      I dont mean to go on & on, but for ex: After seeing Nova Gold and a few others coming out of their lows the way they are heading straight up, I noticed that GDXJ busted above BOTH 50 & 200SMA. GDX didnt (yet), so as a lagger with signs of strength, I did add a little NUGT on that pullback. SMALL position in case it shows GDXJ strength pushing above its 200sma. I didnt post because its higher risk for non-traders & just a small starter position.

      I will try to write, before the opening Monday, what my thoughts are in that regard – that will help readers to see when I’d enter, and when I’d exit (if it doesnt act correctly). In other words…let me work on that :-]

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