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Weeks ago I mentioned that sometimes when the markets are breaking to new highs on weakness, it can cause volatility and lack of direction. Do you feel that we are seeing that now? This chart from DEC 23 showed what I was referring to as we broke to new highs with weakness. I was afraid that we might be heading there again.
Its can be hard to make good Money when the volatility has markets ( say the Dow for example ) moving up & down 100's of points daily. Down 300 , up 200, down 300, up 320, down 250, etc etc etc . Yesterday the Markets re-gained the 50sma and today they are giving it up again. Volume is a tad heavyish so far today and I am again watching the close to see if we get an idea what to expect going forward...
Read MoreWell I was hoping I could use this picture again , what a Fast moving beauty! : ) Actually , speaking of fast moves , this is an update to this mornings post. As we watch things unfold here , and I mentioned what I was looking for, I hope you are seeing what I am seeing.
Read MoreYou could basically read my last few reports and get the same results. Even though the numbers have changed and the moves are taking place, my outlook hasnt changed.
Here is yesterdays wkly chart of SPX - we expected a move higher, but a bounce or a buy the dip recovery?
I thought that the markets looked a little 'different' this time, so I mentioned that it could 'fail' . Yesterday we did have a reversal
And CNBC had a lot of people on saying, "You just have to Buy the Dips. Its been working for years now! " Is THAT what I mean when I say nothing has changed?...
Read MoreMarkets dont go straight up or down
( yes I've seen the $USD and Oil Lately 
) Well actually, they haven't been 100% straight up or down either. We expect Pullbacks , consolidations, dips, etc . Even the straight up dollar move wasn't straight up , as you can see here in my Jan 2 chart, there were dips ...
Pullbacks happen all the time, and the key is to examine them separately and look for opportunity. Lets discuss pullbacks ...
Read MoreMany still cant see it , lets zoom in for a minute
If you're worried that the public will see this , dont. I have posted for 8 weeks my thoughts on a particular sector in extreme detail, and I still cant convince everybody of what I have been seeing, this Picture wont change anything for the public. So Lets discuss Various Markets ...
Read MoreFriday was a Mini victory if you ask me, and I'll tell you why after a brief update of the markets. So far The SPX, Q's and Dow acted just as I thought they would, they have dropped after making new highs (QQQ was likely not going to make new highs, and it didnt ). DEC 30 - I posted this that I'd be watching the QQQ's at the 10sma, it looked weak.
Well, it broke right through the 10sma by the end of Dec 31, so what now? All doom & gloom from here?
Read More During times of low liquidity, it's easy to rock these boats back & forth , but it's not always easy to get them sailing smoothly in the intended direction. When the tide rises , or the flow of liquidity returns, however, they can begin a journey of smoother sailing . During weeks of holiday trading, its similar in the markets. low liquidity can cause volatility and rock things back and forth, but it's not always clear which direction things really want to flow.
Today is January 2, and it's the first trading day of 2015, but I'm not so sure that the liquidity will return until next week. Until then ,we may have more volatility and things may not look very clear, but there are some interesting developments to look at. As I write (Pre-Mkt) Futures are up nicely for the DOW, SPX, and NASDAQ, while GOLD shot down to $1169 , Silver is down .10 , and OIL has dropped to new lows. The $USD is again strong, up to $90.85! I still think next week will clarify the true direction of these markets, but notice this...
The dollar is at new highs in Pre-Mkt at almost $91., yet Even with the continued Dollar strength...
Read MoreJust a quick run through since we have just 1 trading day left in 2014 and it 'Should Be' a light volume day , since many will be leaving early to prepare for any evening activities. I'll start with QQQ. I posted his chart yesterday and said it looked like we could are stalling and could begin to pullback...
This is what happened Tuesday ...
Read MoreWhen I think about the markets right now, it is Dec 30and we have 2 full days left for the markets to trade in 2014. I'm thinking that we are seeing a little hot air balloon action, where things just keep floating higher on light volume. Maybe people dont want to sell now and have to pay taxes this year on their recent gains, but what will they do in January when they can take some profits and not have to pay taxes on their gains until 2016? Will they lock in some gains?
Lets take a look at the SPX
Notice how we hit that upper trend line this summer in JUNE and just rode it higher for a couple of months, will we do that here? ...
Read MoreUsing cycles for 'timing' various sectors of the markets helps us to anticipate when we can expect a possible turn to take place. True, you get a little leeway of maybe plus or minus a few days, but sooner or later, we reach the end of that time period. It seems that we are rapidly approaching the point where it is Do Or Die time. Each day that passes this late in Cycle timing brings us closer to the point where we begin to see clearly how things are going to unfold. As usual, I have about 20+ charts , and at this point I'd like to start with-
GOLD - With the $USD at new highs, GOLD hasn't been hammered down to new lows as one may expect.
I posted the above chart in my public report, but it still leaves questions. Was that a bear flag that would just break down?...
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