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For the weekend report, I often feel the need to review the Bigger Picture to gain perspective. I am going to do that this weekend too. To open this report, I'm going to start with a scare tactic. Yes, that's odd, but I see it all the time in the markets, and I believe that there is no better way to face your fears than to, well... Face Your Fears.
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This Chart is an actual Real Bull Market that I have clipped for us to look at. I am calling it Gold ( though it wasn't) and it has a similar movement to what we just saw when the Miners ran higher in 2016 and peaked in July/ August, and then sold off. The Fear tactic is that we always hear "Gold is in a bear market and must drop below $1000 to re-set." Well, now I have heard that this was just a bounce and is an A-B-C-D down to $1000 in Gold & will put the Miners into single digits. Please read the chart.
Compare it to GDX currently - We see the big run up in 2016, The peak in July/ August, followed by a strong sell off. All very similar to the above chart. Are we in for a massive sell off? That is what I'm starting to hear again. "GDX has hit resistance and is just too weak to push through."
Now that I've got your attention - lets look at the bigger picture in all sectors of the market, and answer that nagging question that is being raised above.
Read MoreThere are times when I feel like I can't even find a solid trade set up, and then there are other times when I feel like there are plenty to choose from. Right now, I feel like I'm seeing a lot of trade set ups. This Friday edition is going to feature some trade set ups after a quick review of the USD, NATGAS, and Precious Metals.
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Read MoreSometimes building bridges by means of consolidation pave the way to higher ground. I will discuss that later in the report, after a quick market review.
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SPX - Again, this is like a melt up phase, and if I were long I would use trailing stops and let it ride. That long bridge of consolidation has built up some energy.
This was eye opening...
Read MoreTuesday had Janet Yellen speaking before congress, and the USD and Gold both actually acted as expected. That's a relief. Let's review the markets and then of course we have to discuss the day that Nak got Whacked. What can we expect next after that big reversal?
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SPX - The markets are on their way higher after a long consolidation. That consolidation gives energy to the move and even though the vix is low, I would just use a trailing stop and follow this higher. It is turning into a nice steady move higher at this point, and these can just melt upward.
Read MoreI believe that Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is meeting with congress on Tuesday to discuss monetary policy. This could affect the USD and Precious metals if she mentions inflation and interest rate hike expectations, so let's take a look at what the charts are telling us.
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The SPX continued higher, and this makes this likely a right translated daily cycle. The bullishness of the general markets is holding on.
Read MoreALONG WITH THE WEEKEND REPORT, I WANTED TO ADD A REPORT SIMPLY DISCUSSING SOME RECENT TRADE SET UPS. A PULLBACK TODAY COULD OFFER OPPORTUNITIES IF THE DIP IS NOT SEVERE.
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NAK was a buy all last week, and I pointed it out as a consolidation in an uptrend.
WRN - I also pointed out WRN as a nice weekly and daily set up earlier last week. It has popped to $1.62 since I posted this weekly chart, so what can we expect if you took this trade? The following charts can help...
Read MoreThe weekend is upon us, let's review what the last week brought our way and what we should expect going forward.
The NASDAQ continues to climb upward and it is hard to tell if this is forming a wedge or is it rallying into a blow off top? I want to look at the SPX and discuss a thing or two there .
SPX - I had drawn this wedge inside of a long term channel for last weekends report. I said that the markets do have the potetnial to keep climbing, but eventually they would reach the top at what looks like $2400 ish. Here it was at 2280.85.
Read MoreFriday is the last day of the week, and I usually just do a brief report with a few bullish chart set ups. On Thursday, we did see a variety of action however, so Fridays report will be a bit longer than normal. Keep in mind that I usually cover things with a bit more detail in the weekend report.
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SPX - Many think that the market is breaking out and going to rally a lot higher. I do not think that for reasons mentioned in prior reports, including the VIX situation.
Last weekends chart
Read MoreTime has certainly been on our side and our trades have been making gains for several weeks now. That said, Nothing lasts forever, so as we move forward we do begin to think about where we are in the stream of time. We are basically racing against time, but I am not concerned yet. I will discuss this briefly now and a bit more in the weekend report. Lets review the markets.
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Read MoreI find that I'm still not making any changes to my thinking since the weekend report. Let's review the markets.
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SPX - I'm watching the green trend line, and that will let me know when the general markets are ready to drop into a dcl. Even though we do have a break out, the SPX has basically moved sideways since early December.
SPX WKLY from my weekend report. I'm not expecting a strong continuation higher before we roll over.
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