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I'm going to start this report with a quick view of the Markets in general, and then I have PART 2 of "What am I watching for during this correction".
SPX - Our daily cycle count is either day 35 and one more drop to come, or the low is in place and Tuesday was day 1. Another drop would be expected, it can give us the normal 'shake out' at the 200sma and shake off the early buy the dips people again. 2638.30 is the upside number to put a swing in place, but let me show you a few other charts backing up the thought that we are at least near the lows ...
Read MoreThis is going to be a relatively short report, with some market coverage and some charts of individual stocks too. The reason is that honestly, our expectations from the very long weekend report and last week have not changed with Mondays action. Let's take a look...
SPX - We now have a day 34 Low. Our cycle count for this daily cycle is maturing, we will be looking for the next DCL or an ICL to arrive soon. The Feeb Lows were not taken out at this point. Reminder: If we are to drop into an ICL, that drop can cascade sharply, so I have been admonishing the readers here that we wait patiently wait with Cash for a DCL. A recovery here could become a 'shake out" in the 200sma.
Read MoreWe usually do a Big Picture view on the weekend report, but we leave more of the short term details to the daily reports. In this weekend report, the Big Picture may take on a bit more importance. Why? Because as March ended, along with the daily details of the Mid week reports, we now have the end of the Week, the end of The Month of March, and The End of the 1st Quarter of the year.
So let's take a BIG PICTURE view along with a few close up daily charts and see if anything stands out...
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SPX FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT - This looked like a likely area to get a reversal, and after Monday we do have one in place. Question is, is it a Solid new low, or Just a bounce?
It may just be a good bounce, but it also may be a good bounce that is just another temporary bounce into the final low. Let me show you a few things
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SPX - The SPX is near the 200sma, and this was where I said that I would begin to look for clues of a bottoming process ( long term or short term will be determined later). Will this do a quick shake out? Maybe, we are on day 29 of this daily cycle, but lets take a look at a few of my indicators.
So this is what I also found...
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DJIA - The DOW was down 724, and THAT is scaring a lot of people. We have been expecting this and so far, it is what it is. At this point I am looking at us on day 27, markets can fall further, watch for support at the 200sma. It CAN BE BROKEN in a shake out, we wont be buying without a swing low in place. I will discuss my experience in later reports.
Read More At times, subtle changes can lead to bigger changes. Yesterday some of the 'subtle' changes that I had mentioned in recent reports suddenly look a lot more important. Let's discuss some FED DAY changes that may have taken place...
Read MoreWell, its our first Fed Decision with the new chairman Jerome Powell. One has to wonder if the Markets are going to be jittery, the way they did the first 2 times that he spoke, or will they rally on the news? He was sworn in on Monday Feb 5th, and the week leading up to his being sworn in, the markets crashed. On Feb 27, when he testified before congress, maybe it was just a coincidence, but the Markets did not seem to like it at all and dropped too. Let's take a look...
You can see on the chart that on the week leading up to Feb 5th, the markets crashed down. Then, as shown in this headline, when he testified before Congress on Feb 27th, Markets sold off then too.
DJIA - On the week leading up to Powell being sworn in, The markets crashed. Then FEB 27th started a 4 day sell off after he gave what that headline called ' A cheery note on the economy' 🙂
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