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PART 1
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Yes, that Theme Picture is a real un-doctored Gold Chart that I captured 'live' one night at midnight as I was writing my report. In this report I wanted to show you some things that You may find quite interesting about that time period...
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You may not even remember June 3, 2016 or June 23, 2016, when they actually should be very hard to forget. I want to tell you the story, so that you at least you know what possibilities do exist 🙂 I write my reports later at night, and Gold was slowly rising from $1250 one night when I started writing it. Well, it started ramping up and just kept going, rising up almost $90 to $1241.90, as captured by me in the Theme pic live late that night. It did NOT stop there. It actually jumped $109 points that day. Let me tell you a story ...
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In May 2016, Gold sold off into an ICL. Interestingly, it dropped from $1310 to $1200, and you could say that from May 17th to the end of May it was all red, red, red, day after day. THAT KIND OF SELLING GETS TIRING 🙂 I say that because we just sold off from $1314 to $1204 too, almost the exact same amount (but we took 2 months to do so, VERY TIRING). Back to 2016, we had our ICL in place at the end of May, but it just went sideways for 2 days. On day 3, or 4 days after the lows were in place, Gold went Boom! It took off, rising up almost $40 in 1 day, and kept on going for 2 weeks. After a brief pull back, BOOOOOOOM! That Pop of $110 followed.
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THIS IS GOLD NOW, and we also just sold off from $1313 to $1204, it has just taken longer. When the contract changed to December, this chart was altered a bit, so I will show the Spot Gold chart too, for accuracy. It shows the NEW low that Gold traded at when it hit $1204.
SPOT PRICE - 2016 took 1 month from 1300-1200, but this has taken 1.5 months
We will cover the General Markets, Oil, The USD, etc. next, but then I will have PART 2 of this discussion at the conclusion of this report. At that time, we'll discuss the current set up in the Precious Metals sector. It is an important conclusion to this very interesting story. Enjoy 🙂
Read MoreThat theme picture seemed funny, because it seems like day after day the deterioration has been relentless in that sector. Actually, many Miners do not really look that bad, and I will point out a couple of Miners that are setting up rather nicely too. We'll be discussing the General Markets , Oil, The USD , and Precious Metals for the final trading day of the week.
SPX - So the SPX is near the highs of January and we have resistance up here. We are coming due for a drop into a DCL, but this became a right translated daily cycle, so we can expect a drop and then a return to these levels. The channel has been a good guide for DCLs so far.
SPX - Stepping back, we see a bearish rising wedge. The Apex is actually about a week or two away, so this could go higher, but with the purple & blue line as resistance, it may get rather choppy and then drop.
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WTIC - Almost 1 month ago I pointed out that I was expecting a Bounce from here, but that it would stall and drop as drawn (possibly to the 200sma).
WTIC - Oil bounced & dropped as expected. I now expect this drop to take out the lows of the DCL ( The blue arrow) and form a failed daily cycle, eventually seeking out an ICL. I wouldn't be surprised now if Oil breaks below the 200sma in a shake out too.
THAT SAID, For those that are interested...
Read More That was what we wanted to see in Miners, so we'll discuss that in detail shortly, right now let's start with a market review...
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SPX - The SPX actually made a new daily cycle high on Monday. That is a peak on day 26 so far, and that leans toward being R.T. , but this also looks like it wants to continue higher. Prior highs and the upper trend line is a bit higher than current price. SPX looks like it wants to run to the circle.
Read More In the weekend reports, we take a step back and try to look at the big picture. It looks like we are VERY CLOSE to some changes. Let's take a look...
SPX WEEKLY #1 - I have been discussing this divergence. It is not a sign of strength at the highs, though the big picture is obviously a bull run. Bull runs can & do pause and falter as the consolidate recent gains, see 2015 into 2016. This can take months. Read the chart.
SPX WEEKLY #2 - Again, Bull runs can go choppy and difficult for weeks, months, even years, as seen here. Read the chart.
Read MoreI don't expect any big surprises with the July Employment report , scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. It shouldn't really affect things, but since that is the next event on deck, we'll just have to wait and see if it does or doesn't affect our markets. Let's take a look at Thursdays action, shall we? We have A LOT to discuss...
IWM From July 24 - I have been looking for a dip into a dcl, and so we would expect a top of some sort to form. The IWM started us off looking weak . Notice how the Weak MACD & High volume drop makes the IWM, a former leader, look weak That 50sma did NOT look like it would act as support and it didn't. Price broke below the 50sma...
IWM COPY/PASTE FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT - I thought that the 'pattern was bullish, but indicators remained weak". It looked like it could bounce though, as the markets have become oversold. You can read my thoughts from yesterday.
IWM CURRENTLY- The 50sma did not hold, but the bounce did come Thursday and Price did regain the 50 sma. The bounce actually looks bullish, but indicators still do not. That makes this "Iffy". Any reversal like this ( regaining support) can be bought with a tight stop, just in case these markets break out higher.
So timing-wise, We are coming due for a dcl, but that could be a 1/2 cycle low, as mentioned on the NASDAQ yesterday, and we may go a bit higher. These markets are surprising both to the upside & downside lately during earnings season, and that makes it a bit trickier as things become choppy. It is a stock pickers market when things get choppy like this. Lets continue...
Read MoreIt is time for my favorite lesson again, and I call it ...
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SPX - I am still expecting the General Markets to begin rolling over.
Even with great earnings beats that GOOG and AMZN had, the NASDAQ fell for a couple of days. AAPL beat too, but I still think that the markets are going to have a hard time resisting a drop from here.
Read More In anticipation of a change in the way a market sector is moving, we sometimes start looking for a possible catalyst or a trigger that will cause that change in direction.
NASDAQ - The NASDAQ was strong and moved to new highs. Everyone was really bullish, but I was expecting a drop. The Trigger seems to have been 'earnings'. We saw FB, NFLX, TWTR among others disappoint, and even though AMZN and GOOG blew away their forecast estimate, it was not enough to prevent the drop that we are now seeing. Friday and Monday took back 3 weeks of gains. We could get a 1/2 cycle low bounce here, but we may not.
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