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SPX WEEKLY - So far this looks quite similar to the Early 2018 Choppiness, but I did explain one big difference in Fridays report ...
Read More After dropping 800 points on Tuesday, if I told you that the DOW JONES rallied more than 700 Points on Thursday, would you believe me?
Well, it actually did, but that was only after it dropped over another 800 points first! These markets have been fast, choppy, and Crazy at times. Within just 1 week we saw 2 Bullish bursts after Powell and the G20 Mtg, followed by 2 days of crashing that actually erased weeks of trading.
Well, today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. Let's look at some of the market action, and this weekend I will cover more detail in the Big Picture Weekend Update. ...
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SPX #1- Day 26 of this daily cycle saw a big crash & a big reversal too. What Might be next in the short term ?
Read MoreWell, it has only been 1 trading day since my last Tuesday morning report, what has changed since then? The Theme Picture of this report is a hint. Wow!
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Review for those that need it: The markets have been very volatile lately. Since the Sell off in the month of October to a trade-able Low, the trading has been very choppy ( as expected). As of last week, we had a 'Powell Pop' 5 trading days ago, and then price moved to the 50 & 200 sma as we approached the 'G20 Weekend Meeting'. The daily cycle was getting old at day 23, and that 50 & 200 could be strong resistance, so what would happen after that G20 Meeting? Well, Monday had another Gap open higher, right above both the 50 & 200 sma, but it closed in a doji candle with a gap under it. That looked very strong & convincing for this daily cycle, but I did note that the Doji could indicate a dip down to close that gap. A stop under the 10sma was advised. Well, from there, we can discuss Tuesdays trading, a day that actually saw the Dow lose 800 Points!
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Read MoreAs a reminder: The stock market is closed on Wednesday. Most were buying or adding to positions Minday, based on previous reports and the discussion in the comments section. Let's take a look at what happened during Mondays trading...
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Read MoreIs it a Trade War that will continue as time moves forward, or will there be an agreement of terms that both sides can live with? All eyes seem to be on the G20 meeting this weekend for the answer to that question, since it already seems to be having implications on how these markets trade going forward. Just like any war, trade wars often have casualties along the way, and these markets have been very choppy lately.
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EDIT: This just in... (Bloomberg) -- Stock markets will close Wednesday for a national day of mourning to honor former President George H.W. Bush.
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Let's review the various Market Sectors to look at The Big Picture and see how they traded this past week...
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SPX - This is what I was watching for, and then a break to a lower low to the ICL, or if the ICL is in place from October, a higher low may happen on the next drop.
#1 - Nov 27 I drew this - A run to the 50sma/ 200 sma, and a possible drop to a lower low.
#2 Or was an OCT ICL is in place? A break higher after the G20 meeting results, and then a drop to a higher low. EITHER WAY, these markets can remain choppy & difficult.
We are here now
SPX - I expected the bounce to this area, and then we need to watch price action at the resistance. It just happens to fall at the timing for the G20 meeting.
Lets continue...
Read MoreWith a strong knee jerk reaction on Wednesday, we got to see what a little friendly talk about interest rate hikes could do to the markets. Next on the table is the G20 meeting, and center stage is this...
Read MoreMost of my reports have included the words 'Choppy', 'Volatile', and 'difficult', because of the whip saw type directionless action that we have been seeing. Well, The Fed Chairman gave a little speech Wednesday, and the ride continues on. Let's discuss the current Market set ups...
Read MoreNot a lot has changed from the weekend report, so let's take a look at Mondays action...
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SPX - After breaking above the 10 sma, SPX was turned down at the 50 sma and revisited the lows. The SPX is oversold and the MACD does have divergence so we are at least getting a bounce on day 19.
From my weekend report, the ICL could be ahead, and if so, any long trade will be capped.
I discussed my thoughts on the General Markets in greater detail last week and in the weekend report, but let's take another look at the NASDAQ.
Read MoreLet's take a look at our Big Picture layout with the Markets...
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SPX- The markets dropped toward their ICL, and I mentioned that similar to what we saw in Feb & March, this could now become a choppy market, instead of the 'Buy he dips' that everyone got used to. The ICL could still be ahead, and I will explain why, but if that was the ICL in October, this could just remain choppy putting in a higher low like last April. See the chart.
TRAN - The TRAN actually broke to a new low, below the Feb lows. As mentioned in prior reports, this could become a double top down the road.
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