Low Liquidity

  During times of low liquidity,  it's  easy to rock these boats back & forth , but it's not always easy  to get them sailing smoothly in the  intended direction.  When the tide rises , or the flow of liquidity returns, however, they can begin a journey of smoother sailing .  During weeks of holiday trading, its similar in  the markets.    low liquidity can cause volatility and rock things back and forth, but it's not always clear which direction things really want to flow.

  Today is January 2, and it's the first trading day of 2015, but I'm not so sure that the liquidity will return until next week.  Until then ,we may have more volatility and things may not look very clear, but there are some interesting developments to look at.  As I write  (Pre-Mkt) Futures are up nicely for the DOW, SPX, and NASDAQ,  while GOLD shot down to $1169 , Silver is down .10 , and OIL has dropped to new lows.  The $USD is again strong, up to $90.85!  I still think next week will clarify the true direction of these markets, but notice this...

$USD Jan  

The dollar is at new highs in Pre-Mkt  at almost $91., yet Even with the continued Dollar strength...

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Just a quick run through since we have just 1 trading day left in 2014 and it 'Should Be'  a light volume day ,  since many will be leaving early to prepare for any evening activities.   I'll start with QQQ.  I posted his chart yesterday and said it looked like we could are stalling and could begin to pullback...

  QQQ Dec 30

This is what happened Tuesday  ...

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Hot Air

When I think about the markets right now,  it is Dec 30and we have 2 full days left for the markets to trade in 2014.  I'm thinking that we are seeing a little hot air balloon action, where things just keep floating higher on light volume.  Maybe people dont want to sell now and have to pay taxes this year on their recent gains, but what will they do in January when they can take some profits and not have to pay taxes on their gains until 2016?  Will they lock in some gains? 

Lets take a look at the SPX


Notice how we hit that upper trend line this summer in JUNE and just rode it higher for a couple of months, will we do that here?  ...

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Time Is Just About Up

Using cycles for 'timing' various sectors of the markets helps us to anticipate when we can expect a possible turn to take place.  True, you get a little leeway of  maybe plus or minus a few days, but sooner or later, we reach the end of that time period.   It seems that we are rapidly approaching the  point where it is Do Or Die time.   Each day that passes this late in Cycle timing brings us  closer to the point where we begin to see clearly how things are going to unfold.  As usual, I have about 20+ charts ,  and at this point I'd like to start with-


GOLD - With the $USD at new highs, GOLD hasn't been hammered down to new lows as one may expect.

$GOLD vs USD  

I posted the above chart in my public report, but it still leaves questions.  Was that a bear flag that would just break down?...

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ENERGY (And A Touch Of miners Update)

Just a quick post today to show you what I will be watching at the close on this 1/2 day of trading, and also what to look at Friday morning when the markets resume trading.   It is noteworthy that OIL sold off again today and OIL is heading back to its lows. Bear Flag?


It's certainly possible that OIL undercuts recent lows. It almost did that today, but notice this ...

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Oh That Light Volume Trading

We had a little bit of selling & volume in The miners today , so instead of a morning report Tuesday, I wanted to post some thoughts tonight. I started getting some questions about things as the day went forward. Nothing wrong with that, it is expected.  I had mentioned possibly seeing light volume holiday trading and by noon, we had some selling in Miners.  I posted this chart Mid-Day  before the selling really started to escalate, to point out some similarities to a prior sell off .


  Selling increased from that point on, so what Now?

  GDX DEC 22  

Lets take a closer look at all things cycles and technical analysis ...

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I just wanted to post this before the close

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Not Much Has Changed

This week is usually a lighter volume  / traders going on vacation - holiday week of trading. Not much has changed from Fridays report.  Things really have to play out further to confirm our expectations or to change them. In other words...not much has changed.  We experienced another peoriod of selling similar to what we had in Oct. Many twondered if the Sell off would end the year ugly and then suddenly ,  right on time ...


QQQ wkly


Its a strong reversal on a weekly basis and take a look at the next chart...

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Its Triple Witching Friday

Today is triple witching and that can increase volatility and volumes.  The first hour tends to see the volatility, and by  the last hour the total day volume increases become evident.  If you are long the markets , you'll be happy to know that  usually there is a bullish bias to Decembers triple witching activity.  Nothing is guaranteed, so We'll have to wait and see.


SPX hit that lower target and reversed as seen here


As shown yesterday  on the charts that I had drawn up for QQQ, IWC, IWM, RUT and so on, these markets are being bought at targets  as that BUY THE DIPS mantra continues

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Survived Another Fed Wednesday Storm

Just as I mentioned in the Wednesday morning report, The Fed Wednesday Storm was enough to more than Rock The Boat.  If you watched the action from 2 P.M. to market close , the name of the game was Volatility. Remember though, sometimes the storms wash the landscape clean and we see the light of a new day, and today lets discuss the beauty of what might be...

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