Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

 MAY 7  (Intraday thoughts)

Lets not find out the hard way. When Gold / Miners are acting correctly , Trading can be profitable. Have you ever traded them when they get caught up in a sell off though? I mean a REAL SELL OFF? They pick up speed and start defying support levels , Moving avergaes, over sold markers, and so on. We may be starting one of those now, so I wanted to point out a few reasons why I think that that may be.

GDX DAILY -  we just lost support of the 10 & 20 sma this morning. That was my line in the sand, especially with the Stochastics overbought and the R.S.I. rejecting 50 again  (REMEMBER- THIS WAS JUST AFTER THE DOLLAR WAS GETTING CRUSHED YESTERDAY).

I was holding JNUG, but flipped to JDST this a.m.--I believe we may see Metals / Miners accelerate in their selling - lets discuss why and look at a few POSSIBLE targets along the way.

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APRIL 26 (Saturday Update added here)

In Trending markets, investing with a bias can be profitable.  At other times, however, like possible turning points or periods of volatility, you have to be willing to change direction FAST and Leave out any BIAS  until direction is established.  That said, lets quickly review the recent action in GDX. 

After a nice Dec to March Bull run in GDX , we got a false break out and an Impulsive drop. A tag of the 50sma & rejection (while Gold was up & $USD was down) alerted us to go short. THIS CHART shows that I thought we were in for another impulsive wave down.

THAT was April 14th, the Short was profitable.  Since then, my April 25th report (which can be read following this one) showed that GDX is possibly morphing into a long position?    I went long and here is my update of GDX from Fridays close---

Is is smooth sailing yet???.....

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APRIL 15    Some  see a BULL, but look closely , some see 2 men arguing whether its really a Bull.  Well ,if you follow me  on Twitter  you know that for a short while now I have posted charts calling for a drop in GOLD & especially the Miners GDX/GDXJ.   I still think the GOLD Bull is alive, but even strong Bull markets experience healthy corrections to lower sentiment and kick out the weaker hands.

In calling for a drop here, I have had a few Gold Bulls say that we recently had a 'double bottom', so another drop here and the Bull could be over. I was also told we'll crash thru last Junes lows , because "There is no such thing as a double bottom"!

Well, I found something that blew my mind and I wanted to share it with you. PLEASE STUDY & MEMORIZE THE SHAPE OF THE GOLD (GLD) WEEKLY CHART BELOW.  FOLLOW 1-5 on the right hand side, before moving on ...(Click chart to enlarge)

The RUN UP, the TRIANGLE, the false break upward, the drop thru support, the double bottom...

-if we drop again,  MUST WE CRASH THRU JUNE 2013 LOWS?

-Is there really  "NO SUCH THING AS A TRIPLE BOTTOM"??

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Well, to be honest, I got 2 requests on the Markets in general, but they are just as important to me

The Question was , "Did you see a pullback in the Markets approaching and is that why you moved to the Energy Sector?  If so, what did you see?"  

The answer is ,

"I did think the markets were toppy and in need of a pullback, and I expect a bounce soon, but It does not look like the downside is complete so far. (Recall my chart 2 posts back saying "Sell in May, Go away?").

The second part is , "No, I just entered the Energy sector because using tech Analysis, it was still 'set up properly'.  It also did withstand the heat recently."

Here is what I was looking at on March 21 . There was weakness in BOTH the weekly and daily charts ($1800 target?)

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I dont want to overload anyone, but I look at so many charts and when I see what I think are  "Good probability set ups" or other "Interesting Ideas" & things to take note of, I'd rather give a variety of info and let the reader take what they want from it.

Let me start with simply something to take Note of...and then cover some  trade ideas past & possibly future.

$NDX Weekly-  Is this a sign of "Sell in May and go away"?   With each "higher High" (Colored arrows) the MACD momentum matched it.   Recently,however,  we see Momentum waning. Since this is a weekly chart , we could rise for a few more weeks (into May) , but THIS CHART causes me to take note and keep an eye on the strength of the next rise.

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