Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

Break Down Again or Shake Out?

July 16, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

July 16, 2014      ARE WE SEEING A POSSIBLE SHAKE OUT FORMING & NOT THE START OF ANOTHER DEEP SELL OFF?  I am not a perma bull, so when market conditions change, one definitely needs to be able to react quickly, honor stops, and make the necessary adjustments  to save capital.  One thing that I do NOT advocate however, is flip long, then short , then long, then short whenever the markets change directions.  Some may do that successfully but most do not.  I have done that in the past  and have found that making money that way (Esp in whip-saw type conditions) is not easy.  Fear of "Missing the Move" can cause one to jump in & out like that, but In fact, It actually can rob you of good money in "whippy" markets - ESPECIALLY LEVERAGED POSITIONS. One doesnt ALWAYS need to be "In" and I have found that the best thing (For me) to do is examine possibilities and then watch for a trade-able trend to develop. With that in mind, lets examine the whippy Metals & Miners here-

THIS is GOLD

 

GOLD july 15 bullhorn

A bounce would be nice, because there are technical reasons to not like what we see if we are Bullish...

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THIS IS IT

July 10, 2014 /6 Comments/in , /by

JULY 10  I have been discussing & waiting for the next leg up in Metals & MIners.  Most who follow me on Twitter know that,  just like in late MAY when I was expecting the "Meaningfiul Lows" to be followed by a Great Rally,  I have been looking for 'Low Risk Entries' or  'BUY POINTS'   during the recent consolidation - to get positioned for the next leg up.   Yes, It is starting now.   If you didnt take your position during the long consolidation  (Well, it felt like a year, but I think it only lasted about 12 trading days) and wish that you had, I am going to show some charts for "shopping".    To start though, lets review where we are....

 

I TWEETED this on JULY 7, the well know BULLISH CUP & HANDLE

 

CUP and HANDLE

These usually break out if conditions are right. Conditions definitely looked right.  In Fact ,  Bullish conditions have been pointed out here since the End of MAY. By looking at some successful bullish  charts,  we can also get some clues as to which Miners might be "set up" properly right now...

 

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Eventually it’ll get tired, but for now…

July 1, 2014 /34 Comments/in , /by

JULY 3 ....    Part 2  Some of the set ups from Part one (Open this report & scroll down for Part 1 July 1) I still see as valid like GOGO, TEAR, and a few others. Others, like the 3D stocks, burst higher & now one can watch for an entry as they 'test' break outs. NOTE:  If Markets head into a "Correction" - these Tests can fail.  If the Markets remain healthy- Could be buying opportunity.

To start:  A few more charts of possible Trade Ideas & a quick  "lesson".   As I write & Chart (7:00 A.M. EST) Silver & GOLD are dropping fast. I see Silver like this...no worries yet-

 

SILVER CORRECTION 3

 

This next chart shows that a correction is healthy & GOLD is still fine too...

 

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UPDATE

June 30, 2014 in , /by

June 30,2014   These are just a couple of charts to update how I am watching things unfold in the MINERS. We had our first run up, which I believe is just the first leg up. A consolidation has begun, as did in the DEC run up.  Is it finished?    Maybe, Maybe not, but if I'm going to establish a position in your favorite Miners (As a core) or trade , I don't want to wait until I have to chase.... you want to try to find low risk entries using charts.  Risk / reward is better at Support areas, certain Moving averages,  and even a break out of a consolidation one can enter a low risk entry....and then keep our eyes on it to exit if it turns against us.

 

 

With that in mind...I was watching GDX, GDXJ  for clues , and JNUG for an entry . GDX does have lightish volume today, but is that uncommon before it approaches a break out area? Notice the 1 hr chart. (Click charts to enlarge)

 

GDX 1 hr

 

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It’s Better Than It Appears

June 26, 2014 /24 Comments/in , /by

June 26, 2014     As I start writing this at 8 a.m. EST, Gold has dropped to $1305  - This is what I'm hearing now ,  "Horrible GDP numbers and Gold dropped? Man that's weak!"  or   "War in Iraq, unrest in the Ukraine, Why is Gold Dropping? Time to go short people!!"   I'm just here to say that, like that picture above, everything you see isn't what it appears to be unless viewed in the right light. This GOLD DIP was expected. The lows in June 2013, Dec 2013, and May 2014 were expected.  So WHAT is expected with this current dip? Time to short? Or buy the dip?   -Charts-

 

Gold on June 20 - I pointed out 2 possible targets of support (this WAS in my last report, the pullback WAS expected)

 

GOLD DAILY

But again, Go short or buy the dips? ...

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Ripples In The Pool

June 23, 2014 /4 Comments/in , /by

June 23, 2014    When you look at various movements in Nature, it is amazing (and educational) to see how things move. Fibonacci still intrigues me to no end and the Ebb and Flow of liquids can be powerful and yet graceful  at the same time.  Its the same with the Stockmarket when certain areas surge forward. Sometimes what looks like Big Splashes can be just Ripples in the Pool , one of many repeating waves of movement.

While I had planned on writing about Gold/Silver stocks, I want to address the recent movement in the Miners , since I received a couple of private emails with people concerned that the move is only' short covering' and just too steep. It appears to be unsustainable and will it crash soon?  So readers wonder 'Should I enter?'  'Will it pullback?' and so on.   I'm not sure if anyone knows those answers, but  I ALWAYS look to the markets to find clues.   Lets start with SILVER/SLV.  First thing we see is...The DREADED GAPS! Wait to buy the gap fill?

 

SLV

 

Is it possible that the GAP wont fill now?  It is...

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NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP….BUT!!

June 20, 2014 /22 Comments/in , /by

June 20, 2014     Well,  I have been mentioning in MAY that I was expecting a "MEANINGFUL LOW"  (an ICL in cycle terms) in GOLD SILVER & the MINERS.   As expected, what an explosive move since I last wrote!  GDXJ has been amazing and some of the MIners stocks have been extremely strong and profitable.  I have been using Twitter to tweet thoughts daily while this website was being worked on a little  ( Does it look a little cleaner, faster, stronger?  The guys have done well   ) I just want to show a few things that I am looking at briefly- and then I will do a full report this weekend.

 

First, As posted in my last Gold reports, I always look at many things as we move forward to gauge where we MAY be going. I was watching this behind the scenes to give me an Idea of what MIGHT happen  as GOLD attempted a "Test" of June 2013 & DEC 2013 lows. I thought to myself..."THIS could be a "Double Bottom" June & Dec 2013 -  OR -  are we about to see a "Triple Bottom Low" Test? What might I watch for?"  I found this and compared as we dipped down.

 

3 yr chart then double bottom

 

Those Meaningful Lows are IN. Gold played it cool, but the MINERS were screaming , "GET READY" since they usually lead. My weekend report will cover a few ideas moving forward, but for now there are a few quick things to observe.

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Dont worry – There’ll Be Another One

June 13, 2014 /8 Comments/in , /by

JUNE 13 -  Update

If you had a chance to read my last 2 reports discussing Gold/Miners , then you know I was expecting a low almost immediately and possibly even what we call an ICL  (A Very Meaningful Low that produces a Nice invest-able rally).  Almost EVERY newsletter I read insisted that we remember that due to Golds "Seasonality" and that "Gold always bottoms in the Summer", we should   'go short' or wait.    '$Gold $1000.00  ' was and still is everywhere.   As someone who likes to be a contrarian, I posted this chart to show that anything is possible  ( Notice that $HUI Bottomed 2 yrs in a row in MAY)  and  I mentioned that I was seeing a bottom closing in rapidly.  Many Miners were forming Lows using various indicators that I use and Bases were forming also.  My last report advised that I was getting  ready for a rally, and you may want to think twice about shorting.

 

MINERS bottomed in MAY 2 yrs in a row-

 

DOUBLE BOTTOM

 

Immediately after posting my report , we saw a rather striking Rally in Miners, especially Juniors.  Some say its "Only short covering", is it?  Will it pullback soon?  Should I go short, or just buy a pullback? Was THIS the Train leaving the station & did I miss it??  Lets review...

 

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Lets Look At GOLD For A Minute

June 10, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

June 10 2014     Questions - Questions - Questions! There are many when it comes to the illusive Precious Metals Market!  Will it Bottom this summer? Has it bottomed yet? Is the Bear Sell off done or are we going to $1000.00?  Honestly, I dont think anyone can know the answers to those questions for certain , so instead of emphatically insisting that "Its this..."  or  "Its that...",  Lets just look at some charts and discuss a few things that we can look for (And maybe we should look out for) going forward.

 

First - Most know from prior reports (See the Learning Patience article) that I had been expecting a low here, and we are there now. I am uncertain, however, as to whether its THE MEANINGFUL LOW that I expect with a great rally to follow, or just a bounce & one more drop to that ICL (The meaningful Low) .   For starters we are still in this down trend, so even if if we bounce as far as $1290 , $Gold could still drop further.

 

$GOLD

If we start to drop here & now, even spike down, do you want to go short? You may want to consider this first...

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Caution: Sometimes It only looks comfortable

June 9, 2014 /11 Comments/in , /by

June 9,2014   ...  Continuation of the earlier report  The reason that I want to mention possible long set ups (Even though I expect a dip in the major indexes)  is that    1. Some do not like to short the markets , and they've been very difficult to short anyways.      2. if the Markets do correct, these set ups can be checked during the correction for possible strength - IF they just go sideways or pull back mildly AND  the Markets just put in  a normal correction, they may become buy candidates . I also expect MANY MORE set ups will develop as overextended rallies in individual equities correct.  I will cover those in the future.      At this point, please note Biotech...

 

BIOTECH - The "report" is written on the charts  (May pull back with the markets, though it did already Correct strongly) I would expect it to return to the break out around the 50sma

 

IBB

 

After that HUGE correction...Some Biotechs are recovering

 

LCI

 

So Are there others  setting up bases & breaking upwards too ??

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