Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

On Feb 17th, after the recent run up in Gold, I mentioned that it could Pause and form a Bull Flag.  These are often just a pause along the way  (although they can fail).  So lets discuss the last few days and discuss Golds Bull Flag and other important implications that I am seeing.

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Feb 17 - I discussed a possible Bull Flag forming after a strong run higher. 

Feb 24,  We have the Flag and it is often  just a pause before continuing to run higher.

Then I started seeing similar bullish formations in various Miners, like TGD. This is an ascending wedge or ascending triangle, and usually plays out in a bullish break higher too. Hmmm.

Lets discuss chart patterns and look at some more Miners...

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I've been expecting a multi week rally in the markets since Feb 11, and so far it is pretty lack luster.  I noticed weakness in the SPX on Monday and mentioned that I thought this would cause the 'rally' to stall.

  I posted this chart, read the writing.

The SPX was rejected at the 50 sma.

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Well, I had a weekend report with 32 charts and not much has changed in one trading day,  so lets do a little review and then look at some trade set ups.

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Last week we saw a healthy set up for a move higher

This week...

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Precious metals and especially individual miners keep climbing higher. Wave after wave, the dust buyers and shorts are getting hammered.  This wasn't entirely unexpected, that is why I mentioned taking some profits and letting partial positions ride.  This runaway , melting upward type of move can be rewarding, but cycle wise, it is will  pause or pull back soon.  We'll discuss that. The markets were moving up off of their lows too, but they stalled on Thursday.  Oil turned back down too.  To the charts...

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  It's Friday, so there isnt much to say with only 1 trading day left, but lets take a look and see what we can learn.

This was 1 of my 2 Gold charts from Thursday mornings report. Gold actually hit $1240 as the day went on, so it looks like that flag pattern could form.  While it does look like that Flag pattern could form, I actually think we may see something else too.

Let me show you what I think is happening now...

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Even in the toughest of environments, we see seedlings take root and blossoms shoot up. We also see the same thing happen in the toughest environment in the markets.   At the time it may seem quite contrary, but this is also how bear markets can turn into Bulls.  Are we seeing that now?  lets look at some charts...

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Starting with the SPX. We have expected this rally , but will it lead to new highs, or will it roll over?

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I think that this move is just starting and it can last for a couple of weeks.   Notice how the Rally in October didn't lead to new highs and broke down to lower lows. We have lower highs and lower lows in the markets now. I have drawn in several resistance points and we will see how the markets react as time goes on. This is NOT near a point that I would short it.  I would remain long,  maybe lighten up in a week or so. The BLUE BOX is an idea of what we may see.

We will obviously discuss what's unfolding as time goes on, but take a look at this...

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