Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

June 21- Groundhog Day?

June 21, 2016 /116 Comments/in /by

Monday we awoke to a Gold and Silver slam down, and the futures for just about everything else was pointing to a higher open. As the day went on, Gold and silver went higher and the general markets sold off into the close. Tuesday, the futures show pretty much the same. Will today bring what we saw yesterday? Janet Yellen is testifying before congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Thursday is the Brexit vote, so it seems that many do not want to commit ahead of time, we may just get more of the same.

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DJIA- The Dow regained the 50sma intraday, but then sold off into the close.

DJIA 6-20

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WKEND REPORT – brEXIT STAGE LEFT

June 19, 2016 /25 Comments/in /by

The Fed Decision is behind us and just when we thought that maybe we could enjoy a week free from extreme volatility, we have BREXIT this week. The vote regarding the European Union is on Thursday, and that could give us another week of volatility.  That said, by using Cycle analysis and Technical analysis, we have been expecting a certain outcome and things do seem to be lining up as anticipated.  Lets do a review.

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SPX- We may have seen a 1/2 cycle low. This would lean more to the bullish side indicating that the current consolidation is building steam to attempt a break out. This looks like a 'W' pattern with a handle.

SPX WKLY 6-17

The W-Pattern is a bullish pattern mentioned in William O'Neil's Books. This one ran to $800, and is currently at $1800.

W pattern

 

That is not the only Bullish chart on our Brexit Week, there are more ...

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Public Report – The Uphill Climb

June 17, 2016 /4 Comments/in /by

The Uphill Climb

When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb is always easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness,  even drop back and pursue a different path to the top.  I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. (Long term they remain bullish in my opinion),

WTIC - This was June 14 and we were on day 50 of a Cycle, so it was already late in crude oil's daily cycle and I was expecting a low soon.

 

WTIC 4-14

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Not Always An Easy Climb

June 17, 2016 /69 Comments/in /by

When a climber begins his or her ascent, they are full of energy and the start of the climb may be easier than when they near the peak. As the climb continues, you may see him or her periodically rest, shake out the tightness,  even drop back and pursue a different path to the top.  I often see that same thing happen in the climb of various stock market sectors, and Precious Metals and the Oil sector is experiencing that now. They remains bullish long term in my opinion. We will discuss that briefly, but first...

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SPX - SPX put in a reversal on Thursday just as it started to lose the 50sma. We'll see if there is any follow through to its recovery today. 

SPX 6-16

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Our Hands Are Tied

June 16, 2016 /91 Comments/in /by
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That's what I heard from the Fed. 

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SPX - This needs to move higher soon. It is starting to show internal signs of weakness, even though it doesn't look like much of a pullback. The VIX looks like a bull flag may be forming.

SPX 6-15

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Pre-Fed Syndrome Again

June 14, 2016 /65 Comments/in /by

Monday we saw a little more selling in the general markets as we approach the Fed meeting Wednesday. I have been bullish for a possible break out to new highs,  but recent action is less bullish and it may be that we wont know for sure until after Fed Wednesday. Tuesday may also be a little bit boring ahead of the Fed.

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The SPX -  This looks a bit better than the DOW, NASDAQ, And BKX at a glance, but notice that it looks to be dipping into a daily cycle low. MAYBE the Fed Wed decision will hold it at the 50sma and set a new trend line, but right now, this warrants caution.

SPX 3-16

The NASDAQ  is a tad weaker

NAZ 6-13

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June 11th Weekend Report

June 12, 2016 /39 Comments/in /by

After we review the general markets, Oil, the CRB, etc, this weekend report will focus mainly on Gold, Silver, and Miners. To the charts...

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SPX - This is a Fed Week, so I am watching the markets very closely at this critical area. This is rather early in the daily cycle, and if this is "the Peak', it will likely be left translated. We saw a slight break to new highs and then it gave them up. On day 15, I'll we watching this closely going into the Fed mtg.

SPX 6-10

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Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase

June 10, 2016 /39 Comments/in /by

Precious Metals

You may have heard that you should not buy precious metals miners until after a ‘blood bath phase’. I mentioned within my (premium May 18) report that I have received emails telling me that warnings are out that the next Intermediate Term Cycle Low (ICL – A cycle low that occur every 5-6 months) will not come until we first see a huge sell off within precious metals. Many think that it will instead occur around the Brexit vote (June 23rd).

Today, I would like to share with you just a brief excerpt on what I’m looking at here within the precious metals sector. And within my coming weekend member report, I will be going into much more detail on what one should expect in the coming months.

Below is a chart that shows what happened coming out of the 2008 lows, when many were also looking for a an ICL and “blood bath” sell-off. As you can see, advances out of bear market lows do not follow the typical script. Simply put, there was no blood-bath to be found around six months after the Oct 2008 lows.

Precious Metals Primer – A peek into the next phase – chart freak