Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

 When it comes to cycle timing, every step does get us closer to our goal.

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SPX DAILY  - WEAK. We will be on day 23 Thursday, and the markets moved slightly higher after Wednesdays FOMC Decision, and then sold off into the close. This still looks weak, I remain cautious.

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 I have been expecting this to be an active week, so as we approach FED Wednesday, lets review how Monday traded...

SPX - So far, the move out of the April lows has been weak and appears to be struggling at the 50sma.  With the daily cycle count ticking away, this needs to break above that 50sma soon, or it will get caught up in a sell off when the 'time' is up.

And don't forget this...

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SPX - We have a swing low at what looks to be a 1/2 cycle low on day 18. The follow through will tell us the strength of the daily cycle.  The 200sma acted as support, and volume increased off of the low. I willbe watching for a break of the down trend line & a new high above day 12.

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 It is earnings season this week and suddenly we are seeing the Markets sell down, even when reports do not seem that bad.  Let's do a quick review...

SPX APRIL 20-  Last week I looked at the move out of the Feb lows and noticed a pretty drastic sell off on day 13 & 14 below the 50sma, so I drew the SPX chart with a similar drop into day 14, a bounce, and then possibly another drop.

SPX APRIL 23 - Monday I thought that by day 15 we would get our 1/2 cycle low, and then a bounce higher.  The markets were so strong in Oct, Nov, Dec, and Jan that I would expect them to at least make a double top, eventually running to the former highs.  On Tuesday...

SPX - We are REALLY seeing a struggle here to gain some traction.  2553.80  IS CRITICAL in my opinion. If those lows break, this would appear to be  a failed daily cycle.

And in addition to that, I posted this chart in the comments section yesterday.

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SPX DAILY - This is where the SPX  stands with its cycle count. We experienced a bit of weakness at the end of last week, and you all know my Big Picture outlook.  This could be playing out the way it was presented in the weekend report 3 weeks and also 2 weeks ago. On the chart I wrote  week, and meant 'weak'.

SPX WEEKLY - Nothing is wrong with the weekly chart at this point, but it was rejected temporarily at the down trend line, and I want to discuss the big picture further in this report.

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