Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak
Entries by Alex - Chart Freak
Friday August 10
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Thursday August 9
We saw some interesting moves in the markets on Wednesday, so let's take a look...
SPX - We see a reversal, but I do not expect a major run higher.
NASDAQ #1- I read head;lines saying " Even the threats of North Korea cannot hold down this bull market".
However...
Aug 9th – Not A Whole Lot Of Change Here
There was not a lot of change to report today, but there were some 'significant' changes that took place, so let's take a look at what has changed...
SPX - This weekend I mentioned that the SPX could go a little higher, but unless it breaks out strongly and runs, it looks to be at the top of a rising wedge.
SPX - Timing wise we are near the timing that we can expect a drop into a dcl, and Tuesday we saw a false or weak break out that turned into a reversal. In June, this happened and we slowly rolled over and dropped to the 50sma area.
What about the NASDAQ? ...
Tuesday August 8th- Stretching Out
In some areas of trading, we see stock picks and stock trades stretching out nicely, and in other areas we see 'cycles' also continuing to stretch out, so lets examine both today.
SPX - I do not think that day 19 was the peak and the daily cycle low of the daily cycle, so that would mean that we are on Day 26. This could pop and run a bit higher, but it is probably going to drop to the 50sma area for the next dcl.
NASDAQ - The NASDAQ got above the 10sma, and that it bullish, however I would imagine that it is only good for a short term trade.
And this is the reason why...
AUG 7th WEEKEND REPORT 2
In part 2 of our weekend report , I wanted to provide a few trade ideas for our traders. I am still seeing some very favorable looking set ups, with low risk entries forming. The big warning that goes with these is that we are in earnings season and we are seeing surprises both to the upside and down. Some of these companies have their earnings behind them already, but please be aware of when the others are to be released.
Weekend Report Part 1 – August 6th
Let's review the market action from last week, and see where that puts us.
DOW 22,000 was the big deal. The NASDAQ had its day in the light, and now it has been consolidating as the DOW & SPX have been moving higher.
DOW WEEKLY - However , is the DOW getting a little ahead of itself too?
Let's have a look at and discuss the SPX & NASDAQ too
Friday August 4th
If you were recently stopped out of TQQQ or UPRO, would you really want to start a new 'long' or 'short' position on a Friday going into the weekend, with the NASDAQ on day 25 of its daily cycle?" Probably not, today is the last trading day of the week. Let's take a look at the QQQ, for those already positioned however.
QQQ - Again the Q's closed under the 10 sma and as it gets later in the daily cycle, the more it may not have enough buyers to push it to new highs. Even if it did, it might be a short lived push higher.
Earlier in the week I pictured the QQQs just dropping and tagging the 50sma, and I wasn't encouraging jumping back in, for fear of getting stopped out again.
So far this is playing out, but I wanted to mention something else...
Thursday August 3
SPX - We see tails on the bottom of the last few day, so the selling is being met with buying. I would have expected more selling, maybe down to the 50sma, but this might have been a 1/2 cycle low.
NASDAQ - The NASDAQ is still under the 10sma, and is showing 'tails' over the last few days too. In June the NASDAQ only showed a small 4 days pop and then continued lower into a dcl.
AUGUST 2 – A Dull Gold Market?
There is an old saying that says, "Never short a dull market." Why? Professional traders know that under the right conditions, a quiet or dull markets can suddenly break out into a strong move higher. I am going to discuss this a little later in the report, but right now, let's visit a couple of sectors that have been a bit more active.
The DJIA is at new all time highs. The SPX is still near the recent highs, but let's look at the Nasdaq & Transports...
QQQ- So this could be a bear flag, and we see that the NASDAQ cannot rise & close above the 10sma yet, even though the DOW is at all time highs. I would remain 'cautious' or alert until it does. This looks like it may want to drop down to the 50sma. Would this dip just be a 1/2 cycle low? Possibly, but it will need monitoring if it does drop further. APPL Earnings were bullish and AAPL is set to open at new all time highs, and this may help the NASDAQ.
TRANSPORTS - I pointed out that we didn't really even get a bounce in the transports, so I wondered if this was a warning sign. We got a drop, multi day pause, drop, multi day pause so far. Looking at the IYT now, I see a possible 5 wave move to the 200sma, and it is approaching oversold.
The Transports obviously broke down here, but at least a bounce to back test that 50sma is likely.
