Entries by Alex - Chart Freak

8-9-18 Looking For Confirmation

August 9, 2018 in /by

 

WTIC - Almost 1 month ago I pointed out that I was expecting a Bounce from here, but that it would stall and drop as drawn (possibly to the 200sma).

 

WTIC - Oil bounced & dropped as expected.  I now expect this drop to take out the lows of the DCL  ( The blue arrow) and form a failed daily cycle, eventually seeking out an ICL. I wouldn't be surprised now if Oil breaks below the 200sma in a shake out too.

 

THAT SAID,   For those that are interested...

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Tuesday August 7th

August 7, 2018 in /by

 

 

SPX - The SPX actually made a new daily cycle high on Monday.  That is a peak on day 26 so far, and that leans toward being R.T. ,  but this also looks like it wants to continue higher.   Prior highs and the upper trend line is a bit higher than current price.  SPX looks like it wants to run to the circle.

 

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AUGUST 4th Weekend Report – It Looks Very Close

August 4, 2018 in /by

In the weekend reports, we take a step back and try to look at the big picture.  It looks like we are VERY CLOSE to some changes.    Let's take a look...

 

 

SPX WEEKLY #1  -  I have been discussing this divergence. It is not a sign of strength at the highs, though the big picture is obviously a bull run.  Bull runs can & do pause and falter as the consolidate recent gains, see 2015 into 2016.  This can take months.  Read the chart.

 

SPX WEEKLY #2 - Again, Bull runs can go choppy and difficult for weeks, months, even years, as seen here.  Read the chart.

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Friday August 3rd – The Employment Report

August 3, 2018 in /by

I don't expect any big surprises with the July Employment report , scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.  It shouldn't really affect things, but since that is the next event on deck,  we'll just have to wait and see if it does or doesn't affect our markets. Let's take a look at Thursdays action, shall we?  We have  A LOT to discuss...

 

IWM From July 24 -  I have been looking for a dip into a dcl, and so we would expect a top of some sort to form.  The IWM started us off looking weak .   Notice how the Weak  MACD & High volume drop makes the IWM, a former leader, look weak  That 50sma did NOT look like it would act as support and it didn't.  Price broke below the 50sma...

 

IWM COPY/PASTE FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT -   I thought that the 'pattern was bullish, but indicators remained weak".  It looked like it could bounce though, as the markets have become oversold.   You can read my thoughts from yesterday.

 

IWM  CURRENTLY- The 50sma did not hold, but the bounce did come Thursday and Price did regain the 50 sma. The bounce actually looks bullish, but indicators still do not. That makes this "Iffy".  Any reversal like this ( regaining support) can be bought with a tight stop,  just in case these markets break out higher.

 

  So timing-wise, We are coming due for a dcl, but that could be a 1/2 cycle low, as mentioned on the NASDAQ yesterday, and we may go a bit higher.  These markets are surprising both to the upside & downside lately during earnings season,  and that makes it a bit trickier as things become choppy.  It is a stock pickers market when things get choppy like this.   Lets continue...

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August 1st – Fed Day – Fed Up

August 1, 2018 in /by

 

 

SPX -  I am still expecting the General Markets to begin rolling over.

 

Even with great earnings beats that GOOG and AMZN had, the NASDAQ fell for a couple of days.  AAPL beat too, but I still think that the markets are going to have a hard time resisting a drop from here.

 

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Tuesday July 31st – The Triggerfish

July 31, 2018 in /by

In anticipation of a change in the way a market sector is moving, we sometimes start looking for a possible catalyst or a trigger that will cause that change in direction.

 

NASDAQ - The NASDAQ  was strong and moved to new highs.  Everyone was really bullish, but I was expecting a drop.  The Trigger seems to have been 'earnings'.  We saw FB, NFLX, TWTR among others disappoint, and even though AMZN and GOOG blew away their forecast estimate, it was not enough to prevent the drop that we are now seeing.  Friday and Monday took back 3 weeks of gains. We could get a 1/2 cycle low bounce here, but we may not.

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