Author Archive for: Alex - Chart Freak

We had some nice action after the FOMC Decision Wednesday.  A lot of the sectors played our as expected, so lets discuss what to expect going forward too.

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SPX - The General Markets broke higher with the Fed 'No Rate Hike" Decision.  I expect a little more upside.

UPRO - UPRO, SOXL, TQQQ, etc are good 3x etfs for 'Fast Gains",  since this daily cycle could peak after another run higher.

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When a trade is acting correctly, sometimes we just trade out of them after they hit an estimated target, and wait to see if they pull back and offer another entry point.  In some set ups, however, if the run looks really bullish,  I  may just encourage  selling a portion on the way up and trying to Hold On if you can. I will explain that a bit more later in the report, after a brief discussion of our markets...

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SPX -  Last week I mentioned that because of the rising wedge, Price may need to crawl sideways along the 50sma as shown  (XYZ) to form more of a channel.

SPX -  So far it has done just that.   It is day 21, and I feel that we could still run to the 200sma and then 'peak' and drop into the dcl. 

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When a Red Flag shows up on the beach, it means that for some reason, it is unsafe to swim in those waters. Well, after 3 nice weeks of gains  in the Oil & Energy sector, I am still seeing a Red Flag in those waters. As mentioned in yesterdays report, Oil itself still looks fine, but it seems that some of the Oil / Energy stocks may not like the waters that they find themselves swimming in. It looks like a Red Flag to me.

Let's take a look at our markets...

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SPX - I mentioned that the General Markets can pull back to a 1/2 cycle low, or just go sideways along the 50sma . So far they are going sideways along the 50sma. I expect higher price ...

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  The Big Picture Outlook is based on current information and the formation of current set ups and what they seem to indicate going forward, but they cannot be considered 'Etched In Stone'.    They give us a solid idea of what we may expect in the upcoming weeks or even months, and that helps us to move forward with our trade ideas.  We have currently taken some trades at Major bottoms  (ICLs)  in the Equity and Energy Sectors, and we have used the Big Picture set up to have confidence in those trades.

   So far,  everything is right on track for what that Big Picture outlook here at Chartfreak  has been for the past few months.  The current trades are playing out well, but as time goes on, we need to stay alert to those big Picture set ups too.  Things can gradually change over time, and adjustments are also made if necessary.   For example, some may raise stops, others may decide to cut leverage, or even add to current positions , depending on how things are playing out.      My admonition remains  that as time goes forward, we need to stay current, stay flexible or adaptable, and Stay Frosty!  Yes,  we want to continue to examine the markets as we watch and see how things unfold.

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That said, Let's examine our current Big Picture Market set ups. I am noting one change in the Precious Metals sector that needs to be mentioned and monitored going forward.

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I said this in Friday Mornings report: 

SPX –  After about only 4 days sideways, The SPX , DJIA , NASDAQ , etc are slowly pushing above the 50sma.  It does look like the SPX held the 8 ema, and wants higher price, so that may become the lower trend line.   The 200 sma is the next likely target.

SPX Daily 1 -  I also noted a rising wedge that might cause a  pull back  at the 50sma, but here we see here that on Friday it  did break above the 50sma,  and a run to the 200sma is possible ...

SPX Daily 2 -  Since Friday saw the markets push higher, that wedge  may become a channel higher.  Read the chart.

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