UNDER PRESSURE
Quick update for readers here on Gold & Silver.
I have to write quickly to release this. When I woke up, I was saddened to see GOLD down so much. Yesterday we had a slam, and it didnt break the lows that we thought were the DCL. A break of THOSE newer assumed DCL can mean 2 or more things .
1. A Failure very early and that would leave MUCH downside.
2. A similar thing that happened in Nov-Dec, and I have been warning about this the whole time, so it is a valid point.
I favor the idea that we are seeing a “Shake out” type move like Nov-Dec (I’ll explain)
Either way, you may want to stop out for safety sake and see how it plays out. This is what I am seeing.
GOLD CLOSE UP – this is the cycle count. We thought we had a DCL on DAY 27. THEY CAN COME on day 33 or so too. Yesterdays slam did not break the $1174.10 lows, but we did just now pre-market.
IS this a failure ? Or is the DCL still ahead?
GOLD bigger picture.
This happened in NOV-DEC. We had a daily cycle low set for day 30 , but It was a stop run and extended that daily cycle to day 36 (See the left side of this chart, blue numbers are cycle count). We could be in a stop run now .
It seems to be a stop run for many reasons, but it may be best to stop out & watch for clarity.
It seems like a stop run because the Miners look good. NEM is at recent highs and the GDX is closer to recent highs, so it would seems that the Metals are pulling a fake out . We cant just take chances and hold on if it drops too much though, because GOLD $1000 could come in a failed daily cycle , because it could mean a failed Investor Cycle and the lows of the ICL would be taken out too.
It could get as ugly as this. It would even ‘back test’ our trend line break (I dont favor this idea, but it is on the table).
SILVER- this is not a true H&S, but you will hear it called that. The recent lows on SILVER are $15.55.
SILVER recent assumed DCL is $15.55 for SILVER . SILVER didnt even hit $15.90 this a.m.
.
ARE SILVER & MINERS holding up & leading, as GOLD pulls a fake out ? Are we getting a new DCL as of today? Or is this a major set back & a failure? We have to wait & See. I am in MIners only at this oint ( Not GLL or SLV USLV, etc) . I will trade my Miners according to their own set ups. Even with yesterdays slam some held up ( MY BAA WAS GREEN) And most were down 3-4%. Usually they are down 7% when Gold starts selling, so I am watching things and you may want to sell until things clear up , or use stops.
I hope this helps, Since I will be watching my positions and the markets at the open, I may not be in the comments section. Make your mind up now what you want to do , and stick to your plan. The reason I favor a “Shake out” move is that Miners are leading , Silver is holding up, and commodities as a whole are acting bullishly.
.
~ALEX
I’m just going to release this without a proof read, please excuse typos …I will go back & read it now & fix things as needed
I’m in agreement with you, Alex. Seems like playing the miners on their own technical merits is the thing to do, but keep it light because they’re not liable to have great gains until gold is on its feet.
GDX is set to open at yesterdays lows ( And that is the 10sma). I wrote todays report to point out the strength in Miners and SIlver, the weakness is Gold….but also the similarity of the DCL last DEC . It was a stop run and it really shook people up. It then went straight up!
Also- A failure would lead to big downside over time, so that has to be entered into the equation
I had some green Miners yesterday, so I am just watching closely to see how this plays out. Right now SILVER is saying that its a fake out. $SILVER 16.06, but I dont want anyone to not follow their plan if they had one with a tight stop.
Yeah, not a bad reaction in miners, so far. If indeed gold is putting in a long term bottom it’s doing an epic job of keeping people off balance, which is what we’d expect, of course.
Many miners on my screen are green so far this AM. Including Royal, Franco, and SIlver Wheaton. And all the positions I opened over the last 3 or 4 days are still green. This doesn’t seem like they’re setting up to crash. I will watch and honor my stops.
I am seeing the same, thats why I threw the update up there. I got 3emails from friends (Not my readers here ) this morning saying they were sick of this, hate miners , and we were getting an ICL crash. That is exactly what I like to see.
I have been watching the NOV-DEC lows all the way and felt we could see this shake out type action.
Cycle Counts used all alone tend to cause panic
Agree. And thanks for the update this AM. It helped give me a little patience, which hopefully will play out in my favour!
I like what I am seeing right now , with GOLD down 2 days in a row (Down another $10 today) and MINERS green. Its a buy if you ask me now.
And nice to hear from you again SimonS- a friend from a long time ago : )
Agree, it feels like go time.
And hey, I read your reports every day Alex. You’re the best out there imo. I just never have much time to comment unfortunately.
Thank You – Hoping to be helpful at important opportunities. These mkts do not make it easy 🙂
Halleluja !!!!
Alex,
agree on a possible extension of the cycle. All along I was expecting the ICl in april it looks like it came in march and now a very long 1st dc all the way to the beginning of may. I think there is a need of this flushes for accumulating positions by the funds.
Thats my thinking ( for the funds ) too. Commodities as a whole have been bottoming
I added to NEM this morning. I think it is a safer play than GDX at this point, the extra strength is due to the blow out earnings.
Yes, they did well.
I’m just glad that it and ABX are there to hold GDX up, until we get a reversal higher in GG . The 3 biggest components of GDX.. I’m hoping for a GG move higher later. 🙂
Me Too !!!!! 🙂
S might have made a perfect backtest of prior resistance and the 20 dma yesterday; up strongly today.
next time I’m thinking about investing in miners…..someone please hit me over the head
I was just going to encourage you to buy SILVER MINERS. Instead, you may just want to hit yourself over the head? 🙂
Nooooooooooooo
Well I just dropped PXLW from my watchlist. Ooof
And coal companies seem to be sagging again. ACI, ANR, BTU It seems they’re still a short of any strength here until proven otherwise.
I gave up on coal last week. For my own portfolio I can’t see buying them without a major breakout that doesn’t seem likely to happen for a while, at least IMHO.
So, Alex, the question about NATGAS is now, will it give us a chance to get in here, or do we take a chance on entering on this ST overbought situation? I’m pondering a little position to get on board, hoping to add on a pull back or sideways consolidation to the 20 dma or so.
..
Did you meant to reply, Alex. Empty comment here.
lol
Sorry, I changed my mind , but the comment box wouldn’t go away. Basically I was just saying that my Buy for NATGAS was triggered lower & now its kind of like chasing until it pulls back
(But I have seen this run & run & run with tiny pullbacks under the right conditions …so its a personal risk call at this point if one wants to take position. I cant recommend anything but a smaller position here).
Yep, that’s my view as well. Thx
No Alex -we are not pulling back this time on NG:)) -i am tired of watching it pull back from 18 to 1.75 (ugaz) lets keep going untill 3 on NG 🙂
I hear ya
SILVER STOCKS are saying that this move down is fake.
AG, HL, PAAS, SSRI, EXK…no reaction or green.
BULLISH I.M.O.
I wonder if the other letter writers panicked like in the past?
many look like a BUY, like SSRI
right on CF…CDE as well…;o) locked&loaded….
Good reversal so far, just pushing back above the 50sma .
From past discussions, I’m sure you have an E.W. count on it : )
Sure is….I wanted to add to my SLW Calls but couldn’t get filled. 🙁
Maria, may I Ask what your EW count is in Silver ?
ken… im not really comfortable sharing.. i am literally just learning .. but if u PROMISE to understand that i could LITERALLY be making this all up, well .. thenn I would be happy to share and discuss ;o)
LOL …… ok no worries.
I will show you mine if you show me yours. 😉
I like your #3 : )
now THATs a game I enjoy playing……. giggle. will post as soon as im able. but… just for kicks here’s a little diddy i worked up for GDX/NUGT..i will actually Sh*t a Brick if it comes anywhere remotely close.. but for now, I sure am having fun watching……. https://www.tradingview.com/x/AZhRFsbm/
Your target $32.34 matches his ‘c’ from here
I should probably add – that my reasoning behind my ‘break upward’ was this pattern below – which I just happened to find when studying the NUGT chart on 4/14. [obviously it’s outdated now but just FYI for reference]. Both are images so i will post them in succession. Signed, Sherlock Holmes
[.. although .. IFF these even come close to fruition, I may change that to #NoSh*tSherlock ;o)
oh, and BTW …call me CRAY CRAY, but I also see this pattern in the GOLD weekly chart. Does anyone else?
i “think” it has just completed what “could be” D … if it goes for E..then it breaks up.. if it fails here after D – it goes down…
ken-here is what i posted on April 22 for silver…cant wait 2 c if THAT works out..lol. i drew one for USLV based on that.. tho i dont know if its correct becuz the waves work out differently.. so weird-not sure if that can actually happen, but ill post that next.
Ken… here is my new found possible BULLISH path for SLV. I previously had a bear scenario with wave III down… but this morning this
pattern appeared to me… take it for what its worth. JUST FYI!! ;o)
lol… indeed .. im following along .. watching in awe… signed, DizzyWithDelight ;o)
Plenty of “miner” negativity over at BBT this AM.
Thats what I like to hear : )
I like it better when the crowd goes SHORT…and have to cover later. Really adds fuel to the move
Alex, OIH & EXK a strater position today? i know i asked you yesterday:) but…
Any silver stock I would say yes. EXK = Yes. Look at SSRI, AG, etc …all good.
OIH… The buy was last week. I cant recommend (for others) anything but low risk buys. The buy now would be closer to $38
hmm ok but does Gold & Silver got some sorta correlation? i never paid attention to silver plays in the past only read tweets saying watch silver for golds actions as well:) BTW great call on CHK @13-14.Thanks:)Alex !
Often SILVER & MINERS lead the move. SO if I see GDX & SIL & SILVER holding up or going green with Gold red near a time when I am expecting lows…I usually see that as a false mve by Gold, and MIners / Silver are leading the way higher.
Nothing is 100%, but I see it a LOT!
SZYM back at 20 DMA now. No telling what it will do.
This one has my attention. Its in one of its consolidations , I think. longer term I still love the set up, but the trader in me wants to deploy the money in another low risk set up & come back to it later. tough call.
There is a gap below
If it fills that gap that might take it to the 50DMA at 3.14. But this consolidation looks a lot like the last one that it recovered nicely from.
I agree with both ALAN AND CARL here. That gap is not damaging & I also have a partial position to what I added up to on the way up. I would likley re-add in that gap area .
See chart above
Maybe they are bringing it down prior to earnings particularly if earnings are going to be better than expected.
We do need a “Like” button on this comments section, but I cant put one in. 🙂
There’s an upvote/downvote function; the little “arrows” to the left of “Reply” under the comment.
Hey, I guess that counts as long as others know about it ( I was not aware that it worked that way ) lol
I appreciate everyone’s thoughts on SZYM. I sold about 39% of my holdings on Tuesday, will watch the gap like you guys and may add on what hopefully will be a bounce off $3.24 or the 50 day SMA.
I have about half of my original position left. Will watch it and add back later depending on chart action. I still really like it long term.
Take a look at NQ. It’s backtesting the down trendline of the triangle and it’s got a little reversal going again today. I think it’s a great risk/reward entry point.
RSX is consolidating nicely atop the 200 DMA and could be ready to launch off the 20 DMA. And of course it correlates well with oil.
NICE MOVE BY EGO & TC with GOLD DOWN
SZYM POSSIBILITY ( refresh for chart). AN A-B-C down goes right to the gap
u no im TOTALLY freaked out right now… this is what i “made up” literally… hahah… and have been following along watching… it stopped dead right where i had it mapped… sheeeeze https://www.tradingview.com/x/EES2gjnE/
obviously it got there quicker than the route i had… but still .. FAAAAREEEEKAYYY
Did you add? I know yesterday you said you wanted more.
SZYM and CLNE are two crazy stocks.
You just HAD TO mention CLNE . I was looking over past charts and I had a few on CLNE before the break out . Wow – who knew it would be that kind of a rocket!
Investment in that sector increased from 9$ billion to 50$ billion from same time last year. Maybe that’s a place to be.
Back test of the break out , I was hoping we could skip that for now -haha
The 14D RSI is in a spot (slightly under 50) that has provided support since this has started it’s uptrend in February. Volume is really tailing off now so maybe the majority of the selling is over, assuming the uptrend is intact.
I cant believe that SZYM went to the prior highs in that gap ‘To- The – Penny’ & just reversed higher.
Chart attached . CRAZY
That may have been another buy
Nice test of the 10 DMA and prior resistance. Looks good!
Dear friends.
Did you look at RGL and FNV ????
Amazing, thanks ALEX.
Nice GEURT ( I’m sure you meant RGLD) . FNV has a nice break higher , and TC & EGO are ignoring the gold sell off too.
In Canada is it RGL, but you are right, RGLD in the states.
Oh yes, THX
FNV has been amazing during gold’s bear. A good one for any conservative traders/investors.
Of course it’s not a miner so not an apples to apples comp to miners (same with RGLD), but still.
And SLW is a similar play in silver.
Alex,
It looks to me like the key here is going to be the bounce/rally out of this drop….there was/is a cycle target for a low around May 6th for $gold….I could certainly see a retest of $1142 if $1174 cannot hold and then a sharp rally….question for me is the strength of that rally…thanks for your Charts Alex….Have a good weekend!!!
Thx Shermo
Some of these miners are totally ignoring whats going on in the metals. I dont see people buying , but I hear whispers of shorting in other blogs and fear of gold breaking supports. The rally could be HUGE if shorts are piling in now and thats the only reason we arent ripping to the upside, because when they cover, and buyers step in? Baboom.
We’ll see and thx for your input on MAY 6.
Amazing candle on the SZYM daily chart, candlestick style
Holding on is always the hardest part for me. At least I still have half a position. The bitter pill is that I had CLNE down at 5 and let it go before it broke out. Patience is needed!
I agree. I watched that move today and it was relentless, I cant believe that candle right now.
Wanted to sell in case it did a gap fill, now I wish I bought more. lol
See you asking about friends and family on twitter. He sent it already. Super condensed cliff notes version: Natural Gas your time has come!
I knew he did, thats why I actually said “When will you announce U did”- he usually says he sent it
oh ok – sometimes it goes into my spam folder and i miss it.
Yeah, I worded it funny, so I understand why it sounded like I didnt know that. I cant un-tweet or un _S.T.
: ) needs an edit button
I sold all of my CLNE (at a profit( near 5.58, oh the agony of seeing the move I missed. Ugh!
Sold NUGT, small gain. Looks like a bear flag forming. AB=CD pattern to continue to lower trend line? I don’t like holding leverage over the weekend. Chart attached of GDX
On a daily , that would take GDX to about the 50sma.
I could see that
very cool bill
Anyone Holding NG trades through weekend?
I have half of my original position that I’m holding
Nope….. I sold all mines for 2.44 (2000)
Have a good week all.
The close on Miners satisfied me. Closed above the $20.00 mark and bounced right off the 10sma today while got crushed yesterday and today. Not normal bear mkt activity.
We all remember when Gold was down $5 and miners were down 10- 15% ? It may be a nice change ahead.
Have a great weekend all, The wekend report will likely focus Mostly on Precious metals , and cover out Energy / Oil / Natgas Trades too.
Alex, thanks for the additional comments. I fear that I may have sold when it was actually time to buy. However, I had my plan with stops set and when it came time, I honored them. So, maybe this is shake out and I should have added. BUT if this was the beginning of something worse then I would have dodged. So, proud of the fact I had a plan and honored and removed risk when it was necessary. So at least I have learned somethibg here!
Good for you Cason,
That will work in your favor 100x more than it will work against you. And if something stops you out and then starts a leg higher, you can always re-entert or finds another stock in that sector to enter low risk too.
I stopped out of UWTI on the action this morning, but at +10%. Sold 1/2 KEG position, holding rest. May add 1/2 next week,of it presents itself, GL all.
Alex,
Miners/gold: wild volatility, some recovery, but in weekend report could you indicate the supports to the downside GDX hypothetically with gold going down all the way to 1000?
On the optimistic side volatility an accompaniment to a broad bottoming pattern, but just in case……………………… (at least we will have your, the above chart, with the parachute). Thanks in advance.
Hi Ruth,
You will see in my report a different idea on the answer to that question, but right now I will post the 2nd scenario ( It would have to be watched real time, this is just a trendline target guess).