POST FED GREEN LIGHT

If you were watching the markets yesterday, then you may have seen something quite interesting from about 2 P.M. onward as the  FED information was released.  It looked like this at a casual glance….

The $USD  completely wiped out  any gains from Jan 22 onward in very short order. Oh these fickle markets …

As the Dollar roared higher over the past couple of years,  Commodities have been experiencing a beat down . They enjoyed the hit that the Dollar took, as you can see on this mostly bright green chart. The Equity Markets also shot higher.

I was focused on METALS  and OIL  going into the fed.  You may recall that   I pointed out in Mondays Intra-day Alert  that ENERGY STOCKS were reversing as OIL hit new lows. That was a strong tell to me, so I posted to alert others to a possible bottoming process in Energy again.   I posted these chart Monday for example, and mentioned that many  Energy Stocks were acting bullishly, while OIL was making new lows.

ONE NOTE ABOUT STRONG BLASTS OFF THE LOWS:  They can sell off or pause for days after the initial blast.  Emotionally, THAT drives people crazy. Emotionally people want immediate follow through to tell them they saw a bottom, any pause makes them wonder , doubt , and even start going short. The charts say that a pause often happens , so we don’t get emotional, we just pay attention.

GOLD – surge off of  lows for 1 day  & pauses 4 or 5 days.

GOLD -June 2013 dropped $50 after popping from lows.  Emotional people went short.Its best to be patient.

 CRUDE THIS MORNING – Surge & dropping

If you go back to yesterdays report, one of my last notes was about after the FED. I said something to the idea that you get a SPIKE  after , and often reversals, but the following day …the various markets go in whatever direction they want.  I said that for a reason: That is what we see pre-market.  Yesterdays POP had many chasing it, and now they will be in the red & doubt, fear, and worry about whether they got sucked into a false move.  For others, it will be an opportunity to watch for set ups and buy.

Important Note for Newer Readers:      I have stated in the past , when I say a sector is “Bottoming” , I mean that it is in a ‘bottoming process’.   It can take some time with rallies and sell offs that form that bottom.  And I always mention that NOT ALL BOTTOMS LOOK THE SAME  ( as seen below) . So a bottom in OIL may not look like a bottom in Miners, and that may not look like a bottom in Uranium, etc.

I mention that because I am getting a strong feeling that Commodities as a whole may actually be bottoming.  Its a “process” and I’ll  likely discuss that further in the weekend report.  Temporary or lasting?  I cant tell yet, but things seem to be lining up nicely. From these lows, good money can be made when a sector has been beaten down and recovers.

Let me just show you some quick charts from Wed to back that statement about various commodities with nice set ups .

STEEL stocks-  ( See AKS, X, STLN, SCHN)  looks like a Trade-able bottom

AKS- Bottoming?

X – Bottoming?

STLD- Bottoming?

– COAL  –  Stocks like ANR, ACI, BTU, etc  popped yesterday and have new lows with strong divergence.  They look as though they want to run too.

– SOLARS–  I have already mentioned   TSL, JKS, CSIQ, SOL, YGE, as good set ups, and bottoming

– URANIUMS sold off and have been bottoming for yrs!  Look at URG for example

So lets discus ENERGY  – are these lows?

 Quick Review-  I saw way too many watch OIL start selling down and started calling for Low $30’s in OIL.   I posted this OIL 2008 bottoming process and said that we are in the “Timing’ for a low in OIL .

OIL 2008-2009 lows. Double bottom in 33 days

Mondays  count for OIL was day 31.  Wed was 33 .

MARCH 18-  looks like a reversal

 Also OIL in 2008   1. struggled with the 50sma  2. dropped to new lows   3. recovered.   EXACTLY what OIL did now.

THERE ARE  MANY BULLISH CHARTS FOR ENERGY! 

WITH OIL AT NEW LOWS….  Many didnt come close to new lows and look strong.  Some are already back above their 50sma with OIL hitting new lows? BULLISH!

SM

In Mondays mid-day alert & other past energy reports,  I have highlighted EXXI, GDP, BAS, REXX, DNR, SFY, etc , these look to be starting another leg higher.  You can now look for opportunities to accumulate them when you are comfortable.  You may wait until some  re-gain the 50sma and buy them there, placing a stop right below the 50sma. You may but these reversals, with Stops under recent lows.

I mentioned REXX specifically and added to that one on the way down, because I loved that Bollinger Band squeeze play.   I posted this and mentioned the tight B.B. leads to strong moves, but may initially be a false move.   It broke higher , then sold off in the past.   If it broke down, I would buy it  ( High risk trade) …

I believe it may have just had the false move down  ( This was Monday, drawn for a friend )

 WKLY I wanted REXX above $4.14  ( Drawn Monday for a friend) .  Yesterday it closed above the 50sma, and 10 WMA at $4.27 . Can it hold until Friday ?

SO I like the ENERGY STOCKS as reported in Mondays alert. Please re-read it if you have time.

GOLD/SILVER/MINERS  – Also Popped with the FED Wed Release.

GOLD MARCH 18  DCL  ( Daily Cycle Low?)

GDX already put lows in days ago ( I got that reliable BUY SIGNAL) . Pop, sideways, move higher

I have written extensively about this and all the possibilities.    I have been cautious in the 3rd or 4th daily cycles, because they tend to run up for a week or two, and then drop.   I will cover more in the weekend report .    COULD this be a Meaningful low (ICL) ?

I have to lean toward “No” at this point, but there is evidence that it “Could” be.   We have to watch things play out , and I will have that in the weekend report.  Right now , if GOLD just bottomed…we have 5-10 days to watch it play out.

As a warning, I will just add a couple chart from prior reports showing how this could just be a trap ,  so we trade cautiously for the next week or two as we watch it unfold.  I posted these possible paths if we are going to drop into an ICL after this move higher, based on past experience.

GOLD to $1200?

Watch for a triangle like OCT

GDX WKLY  2 weeks up and roll over? Both charts below.

 2 weeks up, see oct 2014 orange arrows bounce to Blue Arrows

SO I’ve covered it repeatedly. Its too early to know right now where we are, but we will watch it unfold. Please review prior reports charts , skim through and see what I said we could look for , and I will discuss more in the weekend report .    OIL & GOLD are selling off pre-Mkt, some will worry, doubt and fear  (maybe they’ll go short again) ,  others will look to see if it’s a buying opportunity.  Look for light volume pullbacks  in Energy and metals .

  It is likely a shopping opportunity, since we at Chartfreak saw the ENERGY stocks as BULLISH  MONDAY when OIL was dropping to new lows. Best wishes!

~ALEX

P.S.  No time to proof read, I just want to release this.  ALSO ,  I don’t always have a Friday report, but if some of these stocks pullback in Miners & Energy and look like low risk buying opportunities , I may post some charts.  I really liked what AKS, X, ANR, ACI and many Energy stocks looked like going into yesterday, as charted above.