Pass The Draghi Juice Please

Did you see the $USD? Did you see the QQQ’s?  Did you see $Gold?  Looks like “Happy days are here again” ?  Well the markets certainly did react strongly after the ECB announcement, but will it last? Can it last?  It really raised more questions than it answered, so lets look at some charts.

 

SPY –  Which was struggling below the 50 sma got a bit of a boost yesterday

 

In some ways , the 3 Q’s looked even a bit better…

 

 

AUDIO  – Right click & open in new tab, click ‘download’  , then just click open or play & return here to follow along. 

    http://www.screencast.com/t/JvWxQw8liGp

QQQ – I was looking at this in yesterdays report  . Blue line and 50s,ma,  and I noted a more bullish improvement.

QQQ –  MACD crossed higher yesterday

 

So the markets responded in a positive way, and I do see quite a few bullish looking charts .  I was thinking that we might have a short opportunity coming up,   so I was watching  QQQ  vs  TZA  and I  also eatched  SOX vs SOXS   (And of course a ton of other areas like the VIX, put/call ratio, NAMO, NASI, etc ).

  While looking at the SOX & SOXS ,  I  look inside at semi-conductor stocks and saw CREE shaping up.   I also saw a consolidation in ONNN and CY as a few more semi’s that looked more bullish then bearish.  SO lets take a look at CREE  then and now.

CREE – I posted that it looked bullish

 

 

That was a break out. This is what I see in ONNN, so the semi’s could be shaping back up.

ONNN

 

I mentioned a while back that TWTR  looked bullish,  then it went ugly. 

 

Now even  TWTR is regaining its composure.

 

SO I’m not saying that we flip long, but what I am saying is that many stocks took the Draghi Juice and look a little healthier.  AFTER TODAY,  I will have the weekend to take a broader look at things  because a 1day wonder can fail just as fast as it was deemed wonderful.   If you have time, however,  take a look at a few stocks that I thought had an interesting look after yesterday   (This is a small list,  I have many).  See    EBAY, AVP, ( Media stocks….NXST, SBGI, MEG, etc)

Some energy stocks looked interesting .  look on a 3 month chart to see a close up of  PLUG, HK, KEG, CPE  and more.

 

Gold & Miners

And of course  GOLD & MINERS.   Not much changed there.  I had recommended lightening up /  cut leverage and also some options may decay if we get a sideways move or pullback. I want to mention that I am watching various miners and holding a core.  I might even ADD on dips to areas that seem like support , because I can always stop out if the selling gets too heavy into a DCL. 

I will say that I like the set ups on many of these miners,  though GDX is due for a daily cycle low .  It may be shallow based on 2 things.

1.  My GOLD / SILVER  upside targets havent been met and still may

2. Gold is not as late in its daily cycle and therefore could still  push higher in it’s timing.

CYCLES ASIDE- I like the technical analysis view of many of the Miners.  They look bullish and they can do what they want.  Lets take a look at what I mean.

 

 

SILVER broke into  important resistance  yesterday ,  recovering JUNE 20013 lows.

 

ON JAN 14–   I mentioned that GOLD could pause at $1260 before attacking $1300.  I’m  HAPPY to say that I was wrong  : )     We now know that it just Burst up to $1300 and now has paused .  That was strongly bullish  with the dollar continuing to make new highs!

 

 

Lets look at what I mean by some Miners look bullish.

  This was HL yesterday.  Someone forgot to tell it to slow down, huh?   Notice that it paused 7 days ,  building energy at resistance before blasting higher.  Many others may be  “pausing’ now.

HL WEEKLY-  it should have stopped at $3 on the chart above.  The weekly wants $4.   Also – a break of $4 & small  resistance to $5.50!

 

I ‘m  Watching silver stock  AG.  It too has paused at resistance  (like HL)  after a great run from $4 to $7.   I owned it, sold it just under $7,  and re-bought it at $6.

  I will add if it drops to $5.75 – $6 area again in case it,  like HL,  does another leg higher. Using TECH ANALYSIS…this looks like it wants to go to $10 .  $6 to $10 is very nice,  but it COULD drop to $5 at the 50sma  too,  so its  a tad risky knowing that Miners DCL is due.   The 20sma is at $5.75.

AG weekly –  You can see why it stopped its run.

 

I pointed out that “Lagger”  AXU  broke out.  This is what it looked like yesterday .  Its cheap, under $1 and some do not like to buy those,  others may be fine with it as a trader . Your stop is placed at the red break out line, you dont want it to fall back inside  (that’s a false break out or weak break out).  You also may wait ,  watch it,  and BUY there if it drops there.

 

Another stock that has “Paused ” and gone sideways,  possibly consolidating to break higher later is IAG

 

JAN 9 –  I pointed out that this dip may be all we get.

 

IAG now.  It has gone sideways after running up over $100%  from Nov lows. Often they need to consolidate those gains , and by now no one remembers that it ran up 100%.  Most are bored with it. I bought that dip at $3 and may add again if it drops again.  It looks like it could run to $4ish.

 

HAVE YOU SEEN  GFI & HMY ?  African Miners that are very bullish. 

Look at  GFI WEEKLY    – That is $3 to $6 and very bullish looking break out of a 1.7 yr base.  IN Tech Analysis, it wants $10 if it gets through this resistance area.

 

When I see a chart like GFI above,  I have to wonder if the lows for Miners is in. Remember what I said about Miners bottoming 1 year before Silver in 2000? I will re-discuss this in the weekend report.   I know that for many this could be just another “Bear Market Rally”  like June 2013 and Dec 2013,  and that may be true.     SOME THINGS look different this time, however, and  I am watching those things.

Alan  asked about RIC.  It looks great, up 200% from  the summer.    It is consolidating too.

 

I also pointed out  LSG  on Jan 20 as a “Lagging Miner” that just started moving higher. The weekly looks great too.  It was 60 cents in december, it hit 94 cents yesterday

 

So here is where I stand with Miners currently .

    I mentioned that due to ‘timing’ of the cycles,  GDX  was due for a daily cycle low. I said we should lighten up /  cut leverage, etc .   I mentioned that this could me a good time to hold on to a core , however,  if you bought it lower.   Now prices have consolidated  or dropped a little lower tin some Miners,  so I have a core and may add to my core if certain miners  (I mentioned a couple like   AG  or IAG  )  reach my downside targets on nice easy selling.   THAT is what you can look for if you feel too light and think GOLD/SILVER may have another leg higher.  I caution :   Dont be too anxious and just jump back in to be in, rather, ,  let price come to you.   Ask yourself:   Did it break below the 10sma recently?  If so , is there a 20sma below   that you can use as a target?    WAIT FOR IT.      Using technical analysis ….many of these Miners actually look like really nice set ups .  They can pullback a bit more too, but the set up is good.   ( Of course,  that can change if GOLD drops $30.  They can fall apart,  but  I just dont see that as a high risk  right now , when the DOLLAR  blows out upside and Gold  also goes up $10).   We have witnessed a character change in that area for weeks now.

 

I will look the markets over this weekend and see how things look.  A fellow reader here  Harry Wagner mentioned in the comments section the 1.5 Billion  S.O.S. number.  I dont use those as a timing tool,  but they do often indicate a pullback could come.   On recent runs up,  I have seen huge S.O.S , and then a drop and huge  B.O.W.  and on and on.    That is somewhat scary because it can indicate a topping process.    2008 had the same action,  so we should be aware of that.  In the weekend report I will try to cover various areas.  Thanks for being here and have a great weekend !!

 

~Alex