July 10th – Tuesdays Ideas
What happened Mondayand what to expect Tuesday…
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SPX – July 5th we seemed to have our dcl in place, day 4. I mentioned that it could be L.T., but a daily cycle could peak at day 15 and still be L.T., so ride it with a stop.
SPX – And it is heading for the upper trend line.
I mentioned trades like like TQQQ, UPRO, AMD, SQ, CREE, MU, TWTR, TWLO, etc. last week, but I would ride them with a stop & in the back of my mind I would have the idea that this needs to be watched, because the General Markets are coming due for a dip into an ICL soon.
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XLF- Financials have been beaten down and have made lower highs and lower lows since the peak in January. That means that in 2018, Financials have been dropping, but this chart is turning a bit more bullish. Many Financials report this week, so I’ll be watching the XLF for a break out (Or not).
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OIL did not do much on Monday, so what about the XLE, that has been lagging Oil?
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XLE– It is now breaking higher. After a brief 50sma shake out, it will either break out to new highs or double top. I want to look at some energy stocks at the end of the report, they now actually do look good in the short term.
ERX & GUSH – Breaking higher and look good now, it regained the 50sma. It is at least a ‘Buy for a trade & use a stop’ if you like this sector.
USD – A Day 16 reversal COULD BE a dcl, but I think we’ll probably just bounce to the 10sma and drop to the real dcl in a few more days.
The COT Report was released, but the charts didn’t update. the COT is at the same levels as prior ICLs
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GOLD – Gold popped & dropped on what is likely day 3. It still closed over the 10sma, so the swing low in place is looking more like an ICL / DCL. They do not always just take off like a rocket out of the lows, but Miners have done a nice job of leading the way higher.
MORNING EDIT: Gold is below the 10sma this morning at 1252, SILVER dropped too. We’ll see how Miners react to the selling this time. They have resisted it at times in the recent past, but are now a tad overbought…
GOLD CHART FROM JULY 2 – With GOLD dropping this morning, you may remember that I said in a report last week, ” With a day 17 peak, I have to wonder if we need to go sideways and then break the lows to get an ICL at or after day 34 to make it L.T.?”.
UPDATE: That would look like this, and today may answer that question. THIS WOULD ALSO BE NORMAL, with an ICL on day 34, 35, or around there. We’ll just see if the Miners hold thier lows, but many individual stocks are well off of the lows.
SILVER LIVE CHART THIS MORNING : Silver is dropping this morning and has run some stops. It has not broken the Lows from last week yet, but we’ll keep an eye on things.
GDX– GDX & GDXJ moved above the 10, 50, & 200sma. We actually got what I would call a bearish engulfing candle on GDX. That is an exhaustion type candle where buyers aren’t supporting price, profit taking could be occurring, etc. I’m looking for support at the trend line, and the 50 & 10sma.
GDXJ – I drew this midday for my brother in law. I see a gap at support.
There is 1 bearish scenario that I can think of here for Miners, but with so many Miners running strong out of lows recently ( GORO, KL, EXK, ETC), I will not go into it, I think it unlikely. I will just say that support should hold & ‘stops’ are always important.
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TRX – This was my BUY for TRX on June 29
TRX – Gold was down Monday, but TRX still continued higher. My point? Basically we still see some Miners rising , even when Gold dips down.
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SO far things are playing out as expected in the markets. I don’t expect any major surprises, but the energy sector seems to have improved as the general markets improved after basing out a bit at their dcl. I would like to see a blast higher by Gold & Silver, but it is not uncommon for an ICL to linger at the lows. Not uncommon, but a tad frustrating when you just want to get off of the lows and make some gains.
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We’ll see what Tuesday brings…
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~ALEX
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I’m going to discuss some Bullish set ups, and actually as the markets come out of the lows of a recent sell off, there are some nice looking set ups in the TECH, ENERGY, etc.
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ERX & GUSH – Mentioned above, these can be bought as rather low risk with a stop.
OIL / ENERGY STOCKS – I usually mention OAS, WPX, WTI, VLO, and a few others as leading stocks. They have not looked bad but also not Very Bullish lately as they consolidate gains, but now I am seeing them as Bullish again.
OAS – It has been a choppy consolidation, but it has not violated the 50sma. If you like this sector, you could buy it with a stop. The MACD has been weak, so I’m not 100% Bullish, but I see ‘ gradual improvement’ in other ways in these.
WPX – This one actually broke out and is now similar to OIL – Back at new highs. Again, the problem is that the MACD is not at highs too. ( In my experience – I have entered a set up like THIS, only to see it turn into a break out & then a back test to allow the MACD to catch up).
WTI – Another POP & push off of the 50sma.
RRC– The MACD and RSI on this looks good. It has been a bit more steady on the climb higher.
AXAS – AXAS looks good here, climbing the 10sma after selling off with Oil . It ha now broken above the 50sma and back tested it. A stop at the 50sma is good.
AXAS BIG PIC– AXAS & some other Energy stocks are climbing bullishly, but they have NOT been easy to ride.
So some energy stocks have been choppy and sloppy as Oil ran to new highs, but they may be settling down with the General Markets putting in a dcl. Check your watch list for your favorites and see if they look ready to move higher.
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XONE – After watching DDD ( 3-D Printer) break out & run in May, I started watching XONE and VJET too ( 3-D Printers). XONE has now broken out above the 50sma & back tested it. This may be recovering too. VJET looks interesting….
VJET – VJET popped on Monday, but it then dropped back to the 50sma. I like this set up with the long base & possibly a mini-shake out at the 50sma. This is on my watch-list, but it also could be bought here with a stop under recent lows or the 50sma.
2 HIGH VOLATILITY STOCKS / POSSIBLE HIGH REWARD
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HUYA – THIS IS A HIGH RISK FAST MOVING STOCK, but I love this set up. This is the kind of stock that can run from $28 Monday to $50 by Friday. Caution: It is also a stock that can drop to $10, so it isn’t for everyone, but this is a bullish set up. After regaining the 10sma, it looks ready to go higher.
IQ – This one looks ready to break out now too, since the markets found their dcl. I thought that it would tag the 50sma, but it is oversold & now looks ready to go higher. HIGH RISK, it just dropped from $46 to under $30 in days.
GPL – I was asked about GPL. Is there something wrong? Not necessarily. My thought is that GOLD & SILVER Are still at ICL lows, so GPL is still at its lows too. It is not breaking down, but it lacks buyers at this point. If it starts to run when Silver finally breaks higher, it could go from $1.15 to $2.20 easily , and those are great gains.
PVG FROM JUNE 11th – I posted this as a good base and it kept popping as it rode along the 50sma. I did NOT buy this one, but some here did…
PVG – I did not personally buy PVG, but I got 2 emails from some readers that bought & just held on, due to the base. “DO I SELL?” was the question. It never violated the 50sma, so they never sold it, and now they are up nicely. Congrats if you were in that group too!
