Looking For A Little More Traction

In recent reports I’ve been pointing out various Miners that have been setting up in bullish manner.  On Monday we watched Gold fall to new lows again, but then Gold flipped higher and put in a nice reversal. Maybe now we will see the precious Metals sector gain a little traction? Let’s take a look at the markets, and then we’ll review some more bullish looking Miners.

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SPX – The dip that we saw may have finished its course at the 13 sma. We did see that in past moves out of the ICL.

USD – We’ve been expecting a drop in the USD, and we sure did get one Monday.

USD WKLY – I pointed out the USD break out 3 weeks ago. It has fallen back below the highs so far this week. In the past, you can see that some drops from the highs were long red weeks down. This would be bullish for Gold.

WTIC – This was my weekly chart in the weekend report. There was no big change on Monday, this looks like it wants to go higher. It is somewhat early in the daily cycle, so there is time for Oil to break out convincingly in the near future.

WTIC DAILY – We may see a small pull back first , before breaking above resistance.

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GOLD , SILVER, and MINERS

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GOLD – Gold dropped to new lows on Monday, and then we got a nice reversal 20 points off of those lows. We are overdue for an ICL, so this 20 point reversal should finally be it on day 40.  We’ll see if $1158.60 holds.  A break and close above the 10sma is the start of confirmation of a low.

In the above chart I accidentally used the 13 sma, so this is where the 10sma is. It is in the $1186 area.

I discussed recently that I did some research and reports in the past on the close path that the YEN and GOLD take. The YEN also looks to be bottoming.

SILVER – You can see that Silver has been showing more strength than Gold. Silver closed above the 10sma Friday and Monday. Mondays drop in silver actually bounced off of the 10sma.

Also mentioned was this chart, captured after Thursdays trading. This is the CAD VS USD. A break out last Jan was Bullish for Miners.

CAD VS USD –  With the USD dropping, we currently have a break out above that 20sma taking place, and some of the Miners do look bullish.

GDX – GDX closed above the 10 sma Friday and Monday also. The morning sell offs do not have any follow through lately. There is strong resistance near $22.50, and this sideways move is likely building strength to PUSH right through it. GDX is very bullish above that area in my opinion.  I am Bullish here and now.

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So there it is, it seems that the Precious Metals are just lingering at the lows. We see a sell off in the morning, and a recovery into the end of the day.  While that is encouraging, we really look forward to the day when this sector really gains some traction.  It should be happening any time now, we are due for an ICL and a strong move higher should follow. Let’s see what Tuesday can do for us in that regard, and after signing off, I will list some bullish looking set ups in this area. 

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~ALEX

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Reminder: I always own a small basket of Miners ( usually 5 or so ) to reduce company specific risk. I may sell one if it lags too long and rotate into another better looking set up as time goes on.  We have all seen the dreaded “public offering”, where a company raises money by selling a lot of their stock at a reduced price. Other risk could be that heavy rain causes a flooded Mine, there might be a Fire,etc. These and other types of risk that Miners carry are reason to buy more than just 1. So if you are not trading an ETF like GDX or GDXJ,  I give a variety of trade set ups. DO NOT GET OVERWHELMED if I show more than 1 or 2 set ups.  I show them as they form.  That doesn’t mean you have to have a little of each, I only grab 4 or 5 at times, and use a little leverage when I feel we are at the lows using Cycles. Do some due diligence if you wish, and see which set up is one that you may want to own.

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GORO – This is a flat base that looks close to a break out above the downtrend line. I found several Miners with this set up. It is above the 10sma and it can be bought here with a stop below the lows to keep losses to a minimum, but the potential gains good.

SAND – Similar set up. Stop below the recent lows.

CDE – With Silver still at the lows, CDE has been moving higher and was riding along the 200sma. It almost looks ready to break from the down channel. A close above the 50sma is considered bullish too.

IAG – I have been pointing out the strength in IAG for a while.  It could now be forming an Inverse H&S. Usually people wait for a break of the neck line, I like this here as it rises above the 10sma and IAG shows strength y remaining above the October lows when Gold has been making new lows.

HL Chart #1– I have been pointing out HL for a while too. Here in OCT it looked to be putting in lows, and only pulled back 38%.

HL Chart #2– So here we see that last week HL also has an inverse H&S shape, with the Nov lows unable to get back down to the Oct lows.

HL – HL was holding above the 50sma, and also moved above the 10sma Monday

AUMN  CHART #1 – In October, AUMN looked to have bottomed with a 20% burst off of the 200sma ( Not shown)..

AUMN -I have been showing that while GOLD has been selling off quickly to new lows, AUMN has been riding the 200sma for weeks. This can be bought with a stop a little bit lower than the 200sma.  Notice the potential risk / reward.

AUY – This just looks like a sell off, nothing more at a glance, however…

The Big Picture of AUY WKLY shows a bullish descending wedge pattern. It should be able to break out higher and run if this is an ICL coming up in Gold. The blue Wedge was in a bear market sell off an it still did well in a relief rally.

VGZ – VGZ popped Monday while Gold was still down quite a bit.  Gold was at new lows and VGZ jumped 12% and moved above both the 200 & the 50 sma.  Let’s look at the weekly chart also.

VGZ WEEKLY – We made very nice gains on VGZ last spring, some of us more than tripled our investment when it took off out of a base. It now looks to have back tested one of those support areas. A bit more than a 50% pull back.

UUUU-  This is a Uranium stock and I have been keeping an eye on  URA ( etf) , UUUU, UEC, URZ, URRE, CCJ, etc.  UUUU looks to be forming a healthy base, so I just wanted to point that out if any are interested in Uranium stocks.  This could be bought in this area with a stop below $1.30 as a low risk entry.  

Progress report:

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TGB CHART #1 _ I have pointed out TGB on NOV 22 when other Metals stocks were taking off. This was a lagger, but looked ready to break out then.  I showed a Daily chart and this weekly chart with TGB at  $0.51- $0.58 .

TGB –  TGB had moved up over 20% since I posted it, and then Monday alone it surged another 30%!  These stocks are buy candidates on a pull back.