Not A Whole Lot Of Change Here

The markets are basically moving as expected, so without a whole lot of change, there isnt a whole lot to talk about. We’ll do a quick market and then discuss some trade ideas.

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SPX–  Good follow through.

I’ve been discussing a rally for 2 weeks now, but where do I think this is heading?

SPY – I see a gap that I think may fill at the top of the blue resistance zone. Step by step,  we’ll take it from there. I need to see how it approaches that area.

BKX –  I have shared concerns about the Banking stocks, but I noticed that JPM, GS,  BAC, etc all looked like inverse H&S now, and they were catching a bid today. We’ll continue to monitor this sector  ( Longer term, could that be a bottom?).

TLT –  This runs inverse to the markets and looks to have further to drop.

WTIC –  Oil stalled but still looks bullish to me. Even a drop ( test) to the 50sma at $32.50 is fine.

XLE –  This looks set up to break out higher

If oil moves higher, it may help some of the foreign countries like

RUSSIA –

EDC & See Also BRZU

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GOLD – The Bull flag looks strong, but theres a possibility of a quick head fake, just because shake outs happen.  I dont expect this, but Miners started selling down today , so I am open to this possibility to attract shorts /  add ‘Fear of the COT’, etc. and get people on the wrong side of the trade.  See the 50/200sma cross. Longer term that can be bullish, but…

GOLD –  The 50/200 cross has happened at tops in the extended bear mkt rallies, so it doesn’t excite me yet. In fact, it bothers me 🙂

Silver remained unchanged, sitting on support that I pointed out in this chart yesterday

GDX – This did change. I forgot to draw it here, but this is the first close below the 8 ema.  We saw some weakness creeping in. If Gold breaks out, it should turn Miners up quickly.  Until then, we need to look for possible targets and be ready to add to our favorite miners if the Gold Flag breaks out.

GDX – Support at the 38 % and 50sma.  We could get there quickly if selling picked up. Dropping Wed & Thurs could put us there. Gold could break on friday, but I dont want to guess too much, it can alter expectations.  Lets just be ready for anything, including no further pull back if it get bought up.

By the way-  COPPER looks very bullish to me.  (  See FCX, NCQ, TGB, )

I still like all of the set ups that I’ve mentioned here in commodities , like CLF, X, AA, CENX, FCX, VALE, AKS,  etc.  They are having a nice run.  Here are some examples.

VALE

I posted this BUY in Vale with a tight stop. This could easily run 25 – 50 % in the coming weeks. 

Follow through

CLF –

X –

Check out this crazy steel stock.  $3.69 to $9.39 ,  now ready to go again? 

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  Also I have been discussing ‘traders trading energy stocks’.  There was a  need to be in front of a screen , since these can be unpredictable at lows.   They move fast and could be considered higher risk due to debt and defaults, etc. Now that Oil is moving up a bit,  many are setting up in bullish fashion.  Higher lows , divergence, etc.  So with the above warning in mind  ( Know your own risk tolerance, and please use stops),  lets look at some Oil stocks. They may be getting a tad safer. (WATCH FOR EARNINGS).

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I mentioned this set up on WTI way back when Oil broke to new lows.  Then I mentioned it Monday with this chart.

Boom

The following oil companies are all set up in similar fashion. For experienced traders, they could be bought here and a stop placed at a reasonable level below.

ERF

PDS –

OAS–

I gave a list of these types of stocks in yesterdays reports and they all seem to be acting well, either forming bases or breaking out. WATCH FOR EARNINGS RELEASES COMING UP –  DO YOUR DUE DILIGENCE BEFORE YOU ENTER A TRADE.  Check yahoo finance or another source.

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Also when it comes to Miners,  some are pulling back and you may get a buying opportunity. I still like SWC , and it may pull back inside of this channel & above the 50sma .

Retail also has done well.   M, WMT, TGT, JCP, GPS, KSS ,etc, and shippers started perking up  , see  SALT, SBLK, STNG, NM, SB,NAT, etc.   3D printing with DDD, XONE, VJET was mentioned as setting up back when I expected the rally at the double bottom lows in the markets. Now they are moving higher too.

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In conclusion,  I have tried to just give a small variety  of trade ideas here. Miners, Steel, Aluminum, Oil stocks, I mentioned shippers and retail and there are other areas in tech .  I often do this to show that the entire sector is lining up, so there is confidence that they will all run together.  Do not get overwhelmed if you are not a trader.  You only need to find 1 or 2 stocks that you are confident in, in a sector that you like.  I get requests for ” more set ups & Trade ideas if they exist” from traders  , and others say ,  “ It gets confusing, I want to buy them all and dont know which one is best”.   If you like Gold & Silver,  wait for a set up there, there is no need to always be invested, being patient and waiting to see if this Gold Flag breaks and runs is a trading plan too. Focus on your miners .

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I wrote most of this report at night .  This morning Gold dropped to about $1224 and shot back up to $1230. That may be another bounce off of the lower edge of the flag, bring us closer to the apex. We will see results soon enough, the price between the apex and price is being used up. 

If Golds Bull Flag breaks out upside, Miners should turn higher and follow, even if they didnt reach out ‘targets’.   That Flag is running out of time and Fridays can get pretty active in Gold  🙂  Happy trading!

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~ALEX