Look – Dont Touch!
OCT 23, 2014 As I begin writing GOLD/MINERS are at lows of the day. Miners are breaking to new lows, a break down? It looks like it on the surface.
Here is what I am seeing ( but you may not want to touch this yet). I know this sounds C-R-A-Z-Y , but I am seeing something odd with the GOLD RUN UP & MINERS SELL OFF. Does THAT correlation usually last? No. As I have mentioned – $GOLD looks to have made a real ICL, meaningful low, just like last May. GDX is testing High Volume FED MINUTE lows. I would watch for a “POSSIBLE” reversal today, thinking the MINERS are making a 5th wave down, POSSIBLE false break down. We are actually testing a HUGE candle on 1/3 rd the volume. Those “Light Volume Tests” reverse FAR MORE OFTEN than not. I expect a reversal or bounce if volume remains this light, but its RISKY. You may just want to LOOK , DONT TOUCH.
I also want to zoom in and show you a 5 day 5 minute chart …
GDX 5 day / 5 Minute
A wedge is forming at todays lows, they can exhaust and break upward. (Click to enlarge), But we still remain in a down channel
I have repeatedly said that GOLD looks like The MAY LOWS run up, Due for a small dip to the 20sma. We are there…
I wonder, will GOLD catch up to Miners on the downside? Or might MINERS catch up to GOLD??Again, this correlation “GOLD VERY STRONG, MINERS QUITE WEAK “shouldnt last in my opinion.
and GDX looks like DEC lows run up (Which meandered at lows and shook out everyone – ( EVEN MADE NEW LOWS, JUST BEYOND THE BLUE ARROWS- LIKE GDX TODAY).
Yes, I tend to analyze things and look at things a little differently that others. I see things differently, but I am still trying to remain UN BIASED. GOLD STRONG/ MINERS BREAKING DOWN? That needs to resolve soon, but which way is more likely? Am I saying BUY RIGHT HERE? NO!! (Although it is a low risk area with a TIGHT STOP under the wedge : ) I am asking you to just imagine that the unthinkable could happen, Miners could actually catch a bid here as it looks like a break down to new lows, and become as strong as the Metal that they represent.
Are you out? I think just about everyone is OUT or SHORT Miners. I wonder, Is everyone in JDST and DUST? Lets just watch how this may play out….
and you may want to “LOOK, DONT TOUCH!”
This update is just here to keep you Frosty & Alert to a strange market and odd “Possibilities” . If we get a reversal, as impossible as that seems here, I will likely do a full update tomorrow morning. Right now I just noticed that NG, RIC, GORO, ASM, TRQ, PAAS, SLV, and more actually turned GREEN! Its getting weirder by the moment
STAY FROSTY MY FRIENDS!
~Alex
P.S, Sudden Sweet reversal right now in HL, and you’ve got to love RIC
as always great work. Hopefully miners can catch a bid. need this trade
It would be a great trade if Miners played catch up. HL , RIC , ASM are good looking charts right now ( HL just for the current reversal if it holds)
as always great work. Hopefully miners can catch a bid. need this trade
Thx Knight & yes, It would be a great trade if Miners played catch up. HL , RIC , ASM are good looking charts right now ( HL just for the current reversal if it holds)
Great analysis again Alex. I have been starting to wonder what moves the miners these days. Recently GOLD was up to 1253 and the miners were losing ground? Also noticed with GOLD and the SP500 moving up the miners didn’t rally? What moves them? These are as low as I can imagine at this point.
I dont have that answer. In the bull run, Miners often took the lead, today could be a “test” of that high volume lows (GOLD Didnt have a high volume low candle) and today could be a “Stop run” to get people short for what looks to be a break down. A reversal allows Big Money to stop run and scoop up more shares. First, we have to see how this plays out to know if its a stop run though.,
Great analysis again Alex. I have been starting to wonder what moves the miners these days. Recently GOLD was up to 1253 and the miners were losing ground? Also noticed with GOLD and the SP500 moving up the miners didn’t rally? What moves them? These are as low as I can imagine at this point.
Hi BHOWE – I dont have that answer. In the bull run, Miners often took the lead, today could be a “test” of that high volume lows (GOLD Didnt have a high volume low candle) and today could be a “Stop run” to get people short for what looks to be a break down. A reversal allows Big Money to stop run and scoop up more shares. First, we have to see how this plays out to know if its a stop run though.,
My question is on the gold chart, if you placed a second green line parallel to the first on the bottom of the uptrend would you not have a bear flag?
Hi Cal – It could be a Bear Flag if it breaks down. At this point, it looks like a run up ou of the recent lows and a pullback to near the 20sma. SO being cautious thinking that is a bear flag is legit, but if it doesnt break down much more, its likely a half cycle low in daily cycle terminology (which cools bullish sentiment).
My question is on the gold chart, if you placed a second green line parallel to the first on the bottom of the uptrend would you not have a bear flag?
Hi Cal – It could be a Bear Flag if it breaks down. At this point, it looks like a run up ou of the recent lows and a pullback to near the 20sma. SO being cautious thinking that is a bear flag is legit, but if it doesnt break down much more, its likely a half cycle low in daily cycle terminology (which cools bullish sentiment).
I have been sitting back watching for weekly buys in the metals. However, you mentioned PAAS and SLV so I checked my silvers in my daily charts. I watch CDE, HL, and SSRI also. (Alex, let me know if I should be watching others.) Only PAAS is close to a daily buy using my several indicators including relative strength vs. SLV, UUP, TLT. I use rel st of PAAS vs. ZSL as one of my buy/sell indicators. I agree that we do not have a buy. Next I will check the weeklies which would be a more conservative buy of course.
I just checked my weekly silvers. No buys, but PAAS is getting close. Alex, thanks for mentioning PAAS. Now on to some gold stocks.
I have been sitting back watching for weekly buys in the metals. However, you mentioned PAAS and SLV so I checked my silvers in my daily charts. I watch CDE, HL, and SSRI also. (Alex, let me know if I should be watching others.) Only PAAS is close to a daily buy using my several indicators including relative strength vs. SLV, UUP, TLT. I use rel st of PAAS vs. ZSL as one of my buy/sell indicators. I agree that we do not have a buy. Next I will check the weeklies which would be a more conservative buy of course.
I just checked my weekly silvers. No buys, but PAAS is getting close. Alex, thanks for mentioning PAAS. Now on to some gold stocks.
Hi Gary, ( I see what looks like a nice reversal in HL at the lows amidst the selling , but you wont get a buy signal for a while). Using a more conservative approach will give you a safer entry and less risk, but like you said, the weekly buy wont happen for aw while, it takes weeks to get that data to add up. So there will be many different ways to enter positions and varous risk levels if we get some upside here.
The silver stocks all seem to do their own thing, I watch many , but not for any specific buy signal. I also watch EXK, FSM, AG, ASM, SVM, MVG, SVLC and so on. Today ASM is up 5% and FSM is down 6%…so they tend to vary.
You’re right re HL. Needs more work to get a weekly buy for me.
Hi Gary, ( I see what looks like a nice reversal in HL at the lows amidst the selling , but you wont get a buy signal for a while). Using a more conservative approach will give you a safer entry and less risk, but like you said, the weekly buy wont happen for aw while, it takes weeks to get that data to add up. So there will be many different ways to enter positions and varous risk levels if we get some upside here.
The silver stocks all seem to do their own thing, I watch many , but not for any specific buy signal. I also watch EXK, FSM, AG, ASM, SVM, MVG, SVLC and so on. Today ASM is up 5% and FSM is down 6%…so they tend to vary.
You’re right re HL. Needs more work to get a weekly buy for me.
I started by checking my golds by checking RIC since it looked so strong. I tend not watch it since it trades thinly. Well, not surprising, I got weekly buys on it. The daily, as I write at 10:28 PST, looks a little tired. I might have to buy some if we get a pullback. I wish it traded a few million. 🙂
Alex, thanks for the silver plays below. I forgot that I had EXK, but I will check the others.
I started by checking my golds by checking RIC since it looked so strong. I tend not watch it since it trades thinly. Well, not surprising, I got weekly buys on it. The daily, as I write at 10:28 PST, looks a little tired. I might have to buy some if we get a pullback. I wish it traded a few million. 🙂
Alex, thanks for the silver plays below. I forgot that I had EXK, but I will check the others.
Alex, I checked all of the silvers below that you sent. Many are too thin for me. The two that looked like close to weekly buys are FSM, ASM, and SVLC. As you mentioned these are all over the place. AG is dumping for one. Good to stay cool.
Alex, I checked all of the silvers below that you sent. Many are too thin for me. The two that looked like close to weekly buys are FSM, ASM, and SVLC. As you mentioned these are all over the place. AG is dumping for one. Good to stay cool.
Alex, I checked all of my gold shares including some of yours. Although you have been concentrating on GDX, but do show us RIC, I found the following with my weekly indicators. Hopefully, your chart reading ability for these will confirm these as good buys on a daily pullback at least. AUQ, FNV, GQMNT (weak today), RGLD, RIC, RTRAF. My next plan is to go back to the last decent weekly bottom in GDX to see if the stocks on my list threw off buys before GDX (seem reasonable). Hopefully I will have something this weekend.
Back testing that way can be helpful – see how they acted back them (Sometimes weaker ones get stronger though, and visa versa)
Alex, I checked all of my gold shares including some of yours. Although you have been concentrating on GDX, but do show us RIC, I found the following with my weekly indicators. Hopefully, your chart reading ability for these will confirm these as good buys on a daily pullback at least. AUQ, FNV, GQMNT (weak today), RGLD, RIC, RTRAF. My next plan is to go back to the last decent weekly bottom in GDX to see if the stocks on my list threw off buys before GDX (seem reasonable). Hopefully I will have something this weekend.
Back testing that way can be helpful – see how they acted back them (Sometimes weaker ones get stronger though, and visa versa)
I had a few minutes so I checked my indicators at the 11/08 bottom for gold shares to see if they all came about the same time. If there are more stocks you would like me to check, let me know. I will be checking more tomorrow.
These are stocks that traded at that bottom and their buy signals based on weekly charts: 11/3/08: RGLD 11/17/08: ABX 11/24/08: GDX,AEM,NEM,BVN 12/8/08: AUQ,RIC. Bottom line: They did not all bottom together with GDX, but most were close. My signals came a week or two after the exact bottoms which allowed plenty of time to buy and get some doubles and more.
Once again, if anyone wants me to check other gold shares THAT WERE IN BUSINESS AT THAT TIME, let me know.
My next project will be to check dailies after the above buy signals were given to see if there were nice pullbacks OR if they all ran away for a few months. I found that RGLD had two sort of flat pullbacks in its run from about 26 to 46. My daily signals IF I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BUY THEM would have been 10/29 vs. the 11/3 weekly buy signals. The daily buy at close would have been at 25.40 vs. the weekly close at 27.20, so one would miss a buck 80.
Nice work Gary, and thx for sharing. I am plannning on a morning report to cover what I was doing today – have a good night
I had a few minutes so I checked my indicators at the 11/08 bottom for gold shares to see if they all came about the same time. If there are more stocks you would like me to check, let me know. I will be checking more tomorrow.
These are stocks that traded at that bottom and their buy signals based on weekly charts: 11/3/08: RGLD 11/17/08: ABX 11/24/08: GDX,AEM,NEM,BVN 12/8/08: AUQ,RIC. Bottom line: They did not all bottom together with GDX, but most were close. My signals came a week or two after the exact bottoms which allowed plenty of time to buy and get some doubles and more.
Once again, if anyone wants me to check other gold shares THAT WERE IN BUSINESS AT THAT TIME, let me know.
My next project will be to check dailies after the above buy signals were given to see if there were nice pullbacks OR if they all ran away for a few months. I found that RGLD had two sort of flat pullbacks in its run from about 26 to 46. My daily signals IF I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO BUY THEM would have been 10/29 vs. the 11/3 weekly buy signals. The daily buy at close would have been at 25.40 vs. the weekly close at 27.20, so one would miss a buck 80.
Nice work Gary, and thx for sharing. I am plannning on a morning report to cover what I was doing today – have a good night