No – Not Yet

Oct 10,2014     As I start writing before 7 a.m.,  Futures are down quite a bit 

   I Got a funny email, it said,  “With this sell off- When will you know that you’re wrong?”  – LOL  Now I assume that the writer just worded that wrong and was really trying to say, “When would you know if this sell off was more than the normal correction that you expected?”  OR   Was that just a  Freudian slip  and the writer is telling me I AM wrong – when are you going to know that ?     Let me put it this way, I am watching closely and the CNBC TOPIC is “Is this more than a normal correction? Or Is this going to be a Panic Sell off?

When everyone expects it before it happens, and FEAR is everywhere, they are usually wrong.  The best way to follow it is….TO THE CHARTS!!

QQQ still looks strong. This is NOT a chart of Weakness (So Far)

 

 

Despite the cries of things getting scary – The QQQ on this next chart looks like every other correction before a strong rally

 

 

 

 

Despite the cries of things getting scary – The SPX is also not really ugly here…

SPX – The uptrend is still in tact on a wkly chart

 

 

SPX – Zooming in, we’re nearing support. We usually got a reversal candle, but futures are down. WILL we reverse into the close? 

Losing the 50% is also something I am watching, still no PANIC  yet.

 

 

I pointed out the VIX at 17 yesterday to friends and mentioned a VIX reading of 20 may start some buying, unless things are different here

 

 

By the end of the day , it had gone into the 19’s .  Buying soon?  Will we get that reversal?

 

The IWC has taken a steeper drop, but they are more speculative and they trade like “Miners” sometimes.

 Bigger bang for the buck, bigger drop in the muck. Still not a panic looking chart, volume is drying up actually.

At the bottom of this chart is an indicator that I devised , I buy on a reversal after a steep drop.  As you can see, This is as deep as it gets.

The following yr end rally could be great…unless as my friend wrote..”You are wrong”

 

 

Any hope for GDX after that drop yesterday?  Yes.  If you look at prior lows, rarely are they straight up rockets. I always hear discouragement at lows in Miners when they dont take off like the road runner.  Again, Look at JUNE 2013 lows, DEC 2013 Lows, and MAY 2014 lows…they were Not straight up after day 1.

 

This is GDX AUG 22 –  its an old chart, but just to show you the MAY LOWS were not straight up out of the gate.

 

GDX Yesterday-  “test”?

 

 

Yesterday Nova Gold said,  “I’m not waiting for you guys!”.

 

 

I may do a GOLD/MINERS report this weekend and show what I am watching next week

 

I wanted to show this.  I mentioned in an earlier report that I had 4 EBOLA plays  (I bought LAKE and APT). The 4 plays were  LAKE, APT, ARDX, and TKMR (And I mentioned a few other possibles).  Well what a week in those!!

 

This was what I pointed out when LAKE was $8 & $9, Broke out of a Monthly . It could run up QUICKLY

 

 

I pointed out also that LAKE could form a ‘handle’ but was not oversold, could just go higher.

 

 

It TOOK OFF,  much like VIMC , if you remember that trade that we took In  Aug/SEPT. I posted this at $14 yesterday Morning

 

 

END OF DAY- I sold mine at the  $19 area  …it just hit $21 in Pre Mkt!!!

 

 

 

Also APT...it was a great set up ,  steady and predictable ,and also EBOLA DEMAND Driven

 

 

 

APT yesterday & is currently $6.30 now –  in Pre-Mkt

 

 

Opening above $6….Thats a 100% move this week alone, I hope someone else took that trade, and if so…its about time to SELL SOME OR ALL, buy the dips.

 

 

When I say sell and buy the dip…It will dip eventually, but how do you buy it?  You have to be patient and maybe you never do own it again?

 look at VIMC,  for example. I owned it and sold near  $9 and wanted to buy the dip. It dropped to $7, but I didn’t dare to get it. I thought it could drop more. Now it seems to drop to the 13 SMA, so a pattern emerges and you can enter at the 13 sma if one chooses to do so.

 

 

So in conclusion-  futures are down, selling continues…but I cant hit the PANIC button yet.  WHY?  The charts.  They arent really damaged, but like every sell off, they show areas of weakness  (that can go away with a good rally).

I also see stocks like TSLA, AAPL on a 1 yr , and even some newer I.P.O.’s like TUBE, MBLY on a 3 month holding up well. Not everything is taken out to the woodshed for slaughter , as they say. I am watching things and the Sentiment is showing negative readings and some  “Fear”,  the VIX is nearing the 20 area,  I want to see how the week ends. It doesnt mean BUY NOW…if we get an earnings releated break down, it could get ugly.  IF you are selective and decide to buy-  use & Honor your stops in case something gets ugly.

For now it could be a healthy, much needed correction to re-set sentiment and a nice Low Risk Buying opportunity may present itself soon. Time will tell.

 

Sorry for releasing this AFTER the MKT opens.  It took almost 3 hrs to write this.  Thanks for reading along!

 

~ALEX