April 16th – Happy Anniversary Mom And Dad!
My parents don’t really read my reports, But I just felt that I had to do this anyway. I’ll send them a link, so that they see this. It is their big 60th Wedding Anniversary, but we can’t all get together as a family to celebrate. WE WILL TAKE A RAINCHECK ! HAPPY ANNIVERSARY MOM AND DAD! 🙂
Now to the markets…
SPX – The General Markets dipped down on day 16. I do think that the markets can continue a bit higher, so let me review what I am thinking…
NASDAQ NOW – The NASDAQ crossed the 50sma, and has almost bounced 61.8% ( Fib Number) Higher. Will it continue higher or not? That remains to be seen, but let me show you something as a cautionary note…
NASDAQ 2000 top – The ‘top’ in 2000 had a convincing rally out of the lows too. It ran to the 61.8% level and then stalled a bit, but it simply dipped to the first dcl. It then rallied again and ‘double topped’. I am NOT saying that we will do that now, but I DID say that I expected a rally ( I bought SOXL & TQQQ), and I said that in this area I would continue to post reminders and observations to keep us on our toes. Also…
NASDAQ 2000 top – That same ‘2000 top’ did get above the 50sma too, twice. Both of the first 2 daily cycles did that, and almost reached that 61.8 % area, but it still eventually rolled over into a bear market. so these reminders serve us well – we use stops as we go forward.
An Email question from Jean questioning how high the markets could go caused me to double check that Fib number on the Nasdaq. I looked at it weeks ago, but it was worth looking into with the recent rally, so Thank You Jean, this is what keeps us sharp 🙂
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WTIC TUESDAY –
WTIC – Oil did break to a slight new low, while XOP , XLE , OIH didn’t even come close, so I think that Oil is still bottoming here. It would then likely be a day 49 low. That is normal timing for an Oil cycle.
XOP – As you can see, The XOP made a higher low and started to reverse off of the 10sma. This might be a 1/2 cycle low dip. So I hate to say it, but…
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I re-entered my APA trade. This trade, as well as OKE, MRO, PVAC, BE, PUMP, etc worked out very well for me, so I am back to see if I can scalp some more short term gains. These Move VERY FAST up & Down, so they may not be for everyone. APA also reversed as OIL stayed at the lows. It dropped to $7 and almost closed at $8 ( These move FAST).
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FROM TUESDAY GOLD – I saw that possible short term topping reversal candle and the thought as that ‘ We could see a dip and then a final push higher to $1800+ before a dcl ‘, as drawn.
GOLD – We are seeing the dip, so now we can discuss 2 different ways that this MIGHT play out. There is no way of knowing for sure, but 2 ideas do come to mind.
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GOLD – I think that this is more likely. Gold could make a final run higher and then dip to a dcl as a back test of this break out. Thursday is day 22 of a daily cycle that can be 30+ Days long. The next dip into a DCL should be a strong buy if any are lightly invested.
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GOLD has been strong with this recovery, so I don’t really expect a deep dip from here. It also may just consolidate the run from April 1 to April 14 by chopping sideways (?) and then dropping into a dcl , as drawn. Maybe finding support near the 50 sma. I think this is less likely, because SILVER also looks ready to go higher…
SILVER FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT – We had a possible rising wedge in the General Markets, but they look ready to break higher with the Nasdaq, so you could see Silver do this too. GOLD & Silver futures are down as I write, but that can change.
Silver dropped at the 50 sma, but this is normal action before a break out, so I think that SILVER can break out here. If SILVER Breaks out, I see a few Silver stocks that should break out too.
GDX #1: So it is the same with GDX. This can dip down now similar to the way it sold off at day 8, or it can run higher and then dip into a dcl. I feel that GDX is trying to break out here, so the dip may not be as deep as I drew it here…
GDX #2 – It could get choppy as it tries to break out, and break out & Run after a dcl, or…
GDX #3 – I find this more likely… This dip may me a day or 2, then a break out, and back test on the dcl. MY POINT ON THESE 3 CHARTS IS …
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MY POINT ON THESE 3 GDX CHARTS ABOVE IS THAT I DON’T FEEL IT IS REALLY NECESSARY TO TRADE AROUND THE DCL, especially if you are not a trader or in front of a screen all day. In other words, some people are asking me where I will sell my Miners and re-enter at the dcl, but look again at those 3 GDX charts. It may not be necessary to sell & re-enter. We could be seeing an opportunity to add at the DCL or BUY new positions if one is rather lightly invested, but selling to re-enter may not be as beneficial as some other times in the past. IF YOU OWN LEVERAGE? I often lighten up near what I think is the daily cycle top and try to re-enter on a drop to the dcl, but the individual Miners may act differently / individually. They could stay near the recent highs.
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I will discuss a few things below, enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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CDE MIDDAY was holding up at the 8 ema, so I added to my position. USUALLY I do NOT add on day 22 of a daily cycle, I’d wait for the dcl, but remember that SILVER looks ready to break out above the 50sma. If it does, CDE can run to $5 or even $6 in a few days, so I just wanted to add under the 50sma.
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It is the same with SSRM. I feel that this may be building up steam to break out, so this would be a fine area (low risk/ high reward) to enter and a stop under the 10sma would be sufficient. If Silver moves higher, SSRM will too.
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HL reversed at the 8 ema too after the open yesterday, so many of these are set up bullishly. HL needs some energy to break through the 50 & 200sma, but once it does, this could be a nice floor of support.
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PAAS – I posted this on the 13th, and it broke out the next day and then slipped right back to this area above the magenta line again yesterday, so PAAS looks to be churning for a break out too.
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PAAS NOW and it still looks like a buy.
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AMD ON APRIL 5th, I thought that Semiconductors were a buy set up. I pointed out AMD, TSEM, SOXL, etc . This is similar to the set up in Miners now- pushing on the 50sma.
AMD then broke out and crawled along the 50sma, still a buy…
AMD – This is AMD now, and it can return right to the highs if the General Markets continue higher, so…
AMAT is now similarly set up . It is churning under the 50 sma the way AMD was, so it may be ready to break out too. MU and TSEM are also set up bullishly this way, they can be bought with stops under the 10sma as a low risk entry for those that like to trade the general markets.
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CRWD – This was a strong recovery, I mentioned it a while back. It actually looks like it could do another run higher as an inverse H&S. The RSI is above the 50 % area and it looks to be working its way through resistance.
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WORK was also mentioned a while back and now it has a similar set up. These are V-Bottom recoveries.
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I pointed out ZOOM 3 times as it tagged the 50sma…
I got an email asking, “Where do I sell ZM?” If you bought ZM back then, I would let this one ride and raise a stop to the 10sma, and then I might just keep raising it as that 10 rises. This looks healthy and should break to new highs.
