April 15th – The Rebound
It is early in the morning here on the East Coast of the U.S., and the futures are a bright red as I prepare to release the report ( 4:30 a.m. Eastern) , but on Monday and Tuesday the action was Bullish in the General Markets and Precious Metals, so we’ll have to see if all of this Red is just a normal pause or pull back as a buying opportunity. As you will see, the charts in the report have been quite bullish up to now…
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SPX – Yesterday I discussed the rising wedge ( bearish) Vs the break out higher forming a channel (Bullish). Well, we have a day 15 high and the wedge still looks valid, HOWEVER…
QQQ – The NASDAQ AND SOX broke out and turned even more bullish. It would seem likely that the SPX will follow. Let me show you something else…
We had been discussing short term trades in AMD, UBER, MU, SQ, TWTR, SOXL, etc out of the lows, and Yesterday I wrote this:
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ADDING TO THE BULLISH VIEW: I WILL SAY THIS” AMD, TSEM, MU , etc look Bullish at this point. I already had them as BUYS earlier with SOXL, they are a ‘Hold” or ‘add‘ with a stop, if you ask me. That’s an inverse H&S.
Well … this is what AMD looks like after Tuesdays trading. The Inverse H&S was bullish for AMD, and again, MU, TSEM, and others still look good too.
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SO I WROTE THAT WE COULD SEE THIS WITH THE SPX IF THE BEAR WEDGE RESOLVED UPWARD. WE STILL MAY GET THIS BASED ON YESTERDAYS ACTION. Then we would no longer see a rising wedge, we could see a channel.
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TSEM broke above the 50sma yesterday too, along with AMD.
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So that means that the other set ups may still break even higher too, if the markets continue to be bullish.
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WTIC – oil is now dangerously close to the lows. It is possible to get a double bottom, and in E.W. you can retest that low too, but this is Very Close to a failure. Either that or that low that reversed and took out the 10sma was not a dcl after all? With all of this happening…
XOP – The Oil stocks are still holding very good gains.
OKE – I owned OKE, APA, MRO, BE, PUMP, etc when we had our reversals and some of these have doubled and are still showing up green every day, even with OIL threatening the lows.
WTIC – If Oil breaks to a new low, I would have to say that this is not a day 38 low, but we’d be on day 49. We still have very strong divergence and the Oil Stocks remained bullish, so I still believe that we are at ‘the lows’, it is just a matter of whether or not they get broken & reverse to extend the count (shake out) or not. It looks like a double bottom low with that MACD Divergence.
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GOLD – Gold Popped and sold off a bit Tuesday. It is day 20 and you cannot tell if this is a top or just a stall point, but I do have higher targets just using the inverse H&S measurement. I had $1750 as a target originally ( we hit it), but I feel that this can still go higher to $1825. We’ll see…
Do you remember the day 16 reversal? I did say that this could just keep climbing, and so far it has, to $1750. Tuesdays reversal can still climb higher too. It could just dip down for a day or 2 & keep climbing from day 21, so…
GOLD – We could see a dip and then a final push higher to $1800+ before a dcl .
SILVER actually closed pushing against the 50 sma, so we have overhead resistance, but this is a first daily cycle and we should see Silver much higher, whether it pulls back here or not. I feel that it wants to break higher sooner than later.
SILVER – We had a possible rising wedge in the General Markets, but they look ready to break higher with the Nasdaq, so you could see Silver do this too. GOLD & Silver futures are down as I write, but that can change.
GDX put in a new high on day 20. This is a Doji, an indecision candle, so it can pull back and then move higher, or it can also just continue higher. Let me show you something…
GDX – These Doji candles did NOT cause a big drop. At times price just paused and continued higher.
With choppy action, Individual stocks may still do their own thing. USAS was a buy in yesterdays report as a laggard. Other Miners popped and dropped and this laggard Popped and ran, closing up 16%.
IVPAF was up 11% at the down trend line midday. It sold off a bit, but still closed up over the 50sma.
HL also Popped up to the 50sma, but it stalled.
1. It still closed above the 200sma
2.Volume increased and this could still move higher as it tries to get back up to the prior highs.
GORO is another Miners that Popped and dropped, but remains Bullishly set up and is actually right at the 50 & 200sma. If it drops to the 10sma, I will add, because volume is great and a run to $6 is 50% higher from here.
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Tech stocks found buyers yesterday and the set ups remain bullish for now. Oil is tricky. It appeared to put in lows when it broke above the 10sma after day 38, and many Oil stocks have moved well off the lows ( 100% in some cases), so a slight break of the lows with Oil is not concerning to me. A break could be a shake out and a day 50 dcl, rather than day 38. Gold, Silver, and Miners are Bullish. They rocketed out of the ICL and have made tremendous gains. We have a pause on day 20, and we’ll see where we go from here. The thing to keep in mind is that this is now a right translated daily cycle out of an ICL. Even if we dip to a dcl, the 2nd daily cycle one should take us to even higher highs.
We have seen a lot of bullish action for traders over the past 2 weeks or so. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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FOR TRADERS: Along with Miners as a buying opportunity, and AMD, TSEM, SQ, COUP, WORK, CRWD, VIPS, and other good set ups in The Tech area, the MJ stocks may be ready to make another leg higher too.
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CGC – After consolidating the $9-$15 run, this could make a run for the 200sma.
TLRY – I sold my TLRY last week and now it looks possibly ready to go again.
COUP – Broke above the 50 & 200sma too, and that is a buy.
