Tuesday October 23rd
Nothing has really changed since the weekend report. The markets have been choppy and difficult to record any gains over the past few days, but I do love the way the Precious Metals sector acted yesterday, so let’s take another look at what we have.
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SPX – You can see that these types of sell offs into an ICL can lead to a double bottom, and Monday our General markets sold off further.
DJIA – You may want to look for something like this
HOWEVER….
It needs to at least be mentioned that after we get the ICL, the next 2 daily cycles will be very important. They can do 1 of 2 things:
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SPX – The next 2 daily cycles will reveal if this bull continues after the ICL or…
AT THIS POINT I LEAN TOWARD THIS VIEW, WITH GOLD BEGINNING A RUN HIGHER :
SPX – The next 2 daily cycles could be a dead cat bounce, possibly even a double top here, into what will now be a bearish type correction as shown.
SPX – This is why, and it might now be Precious Metals and Commodities time to shine.
WTIC – Nothing has changed with Oil, I am expecting a dcl any day now.
USD – The USD has been strong, but it is not affecting Gold greatly. Gold is holding up well.
GOLD – Gold dropped to the 10sma as support, this looks like a bull flag as mentioned
GOLD – On October , I said that I would like to see this. It would be a little more sideways to the 10sma, and then a POP.
GDXJ 11 a.m.- I Captured this and posted it in the comments, to show that GDX & GDXJ drop is normal and the 10sma is being tagged. We would like a reversal.
GDXJ MIDDAY– We were getting the reversal, so this is a low risk buy if you use the 10sma as a stop now.
I HAVE BEEN POINTING OUT BULLISH ACTION IN THE MINERS
GORO #1 – I pointed out that the 10sma is a target that Bull runs dip too.
GORO #2 – I said to add at this area is normal and then we watch for the support reversal to hold
GORO #3 – Yesterday GORO dipped and recovered again, this is bullish action
AG – I pointed out AG as a buy in the weekend report. It dropped and recovered the 10sma
AU – 10 sma Bull Flag
BTG – 10 sma, Bull Flag
So Gold & The Miners continue to act correctly, we have been on a Buy & Hold for weeks, expecting that an ICL is in place. GOLD & MINERS are acting correctly.
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EDIT: GOLD This morning – trying to break from the consolidation. This is a 2 hr chart, it is the Bull Flag that you saw on the Gold charts, so…
GOLD – On October , I said that I would like to see this. It would be a little more sideways to the 10sma, and then a POP.
GOLD THIS MORNING – VERY NICE. NOTICE THAT THE 50 SMA HAS CURLED UPWARD
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GOLD LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING , ENJOY YOUR TUESDAY TRADING!
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~ALEX
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CLF- I mentioned that this may be an earnings shake out, wince it crashed and recovered at the 50sma
CLF- It recovered the 50sma yesterday
SBLK – Shippers exploded yesterday with DCIX, SINO and others running up as much as 40%. SBLK and DSX look like Buy opportunities that have not run up yet. You could buy this on the 200sma and use that as a stop. DSX is under the 50sma, you could buy if it breaks above it.
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MJ SECTOR – This sector looks to have begun a consolidation phase
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This sector is tricky, and I am still learning from the fast action. Why do I say this? I have traded the Bullish set ups a few times over the past few years. I trade them for about 2-3 months , and then they crash suddenly into a consolidation phase, almost without warning. The crazy thing about this sector is that I always make excellent gains, but never walk away with all of those gains. In fact, these move SO FAST that I give almost 25% back in some stocks -50% of those gains back in others , each time I trade them. Things look fine until right before the charts say ‘Game over’. I even re-buy the dips at support and suddenly support gives away. They look very bullish right up until the final top & pull back. Lets take a look…
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MJ – Canadas legalization was NOT the start of a bull run, it may have ended it. ‘Sell the news’. This now took the form of a double top, with less energy on the second run higher. Right through last week it looked fine. Last Tuesday it was at the highs, but a reversal took hold. Almost all of the MJ stocks acted fine last week, and suddenly the drop that says ‘game over’. Even 2 days ago, you can see that this was fine and above the 10sma, but out of no where, support breaks and it often signals that a consolidation is coming. I am almost completely out of the sector ( I own NWGFF) , but will watch the consolidation phase and re-enter when the time is right. That could be months from now. Lets discuss this a bit more… .
MJ – I am not in a hurry to buy the next bounce, because in the past I have seen consolidations last for months. I try to view it in my head as daily cycles that will make new lows, not new highs. If ( or when) that changes, I will find a way to re-enter. This is not ‘Bearish’, but all Bulls need a rest too.
ACBFF #1 – I had this chart as a warning Oct 19. ACBFF is going to be listed today. IS THAT ALONE A BUY? Or is it sell the news?
ACBFF #2 – I want to view it like this to avoid getting sucked in eagerly on a bounce, only to find that it needs more time too. I am personally going to be patient and probably focus more funds on Miners – they are acting correctly.
NWGFF #1 – I drew this in the morning for the comments section. It could drop to the trend line, but that also breaks below the 10 & 50sma & 200sma ( I don’t like that).
NWGFF #2 – It did exactly that, but you can see that this looks a bit broken. I bought this much lower, so I sold 1/2 and will see what this does going forward, but this definitely could just drop back to the base.
This was an excellent set up , many MJ stocks in the entire sector were good looking last week, but when they start selling off? They all get ‘sympathy selling’, traders losing money in a few positions try to lock in gains in some others, to off set losses in others. Selling escalates. This whole sector pretty much sold off yesterday, and I am going to allow it time to settle down. These Move SO FAST, that the losses can pile up quickly. I believe in time, this will set up and be ready for lower risk entries, but for now I think it goes to choppy , sloppy, and difficult to trade consistently. I have given back some good gains, and locked in what I could along the way.
THE OPENING PICTURE IS HOW I AM VIEWING THIS SECTOR AS OF THE END OF LAST WEEK, AND INTO THIS WEEK.
