Tuesday July 31st – The Triggerfish

In anticipation of a change in the way a market sector is moving, we sometimes start looking for a possible catalyst or a trigger that will cause that change in direction.

 

NASDAQ - The NASDAQ  was strong and moved to new highs.  Everyone was really bullish, but I was expecting a drop.  The Trigger seems to have been 'earnings'.  We saw FB, NFLX, TWTR among others disappoint, and even though AMZN and GOOG blew away their forecast estimate, it was not enough to prevent the drop that we are now seeing.  Friday and Monday took back 3 weeks of gains. We could get a 1/2 cycle low bounce here, but we may not.

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WEEKEND JULY 28 – Please Hold

 

SPX WEEKLY - I have been discussing the timing on a daily chart, and feel that we are due to drop soon, into a dcl. This may be the short term top.

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Friday July 27th – “Calculating Route!”

Have you ever heard those words while you were driving along using your GPS?

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Pick An Emoji

Talk about a love / hate relationship and you're talking about being a disappointment during earnings.  They love you when you perform well, but it's a different emotion when your earnings 'miss'.

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Facebook released earnings on Wednesday night, and it was set to open about $50 lower.  We'll just have to wait and see how things shake out during the regular markets hours, but this is where it would open at this rate.  Talk about "filling that gap at $170"!

 

On to the markets...

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Golden Surprise

I want to open up part of my weekend report discussing GOLD, SILVER, and THE MINERS.  I have been saying that using Cycle Timing ( among other things) , we are due for an UPSIDE SURPRISE.   Let me get right into the discussion that I had with my premium readers this past weekend…

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USD DAILY  – This was July 15 and if you read the chart,  I thought that the USD could bounce once more, but then drop.  Why? LOOK AT THAT MACD WEAKNESS, and overhead resistance.

 

 

USD DAILY JULY 19  – So we got the bounce and the USD was rejected at resistance. A bear wedge was also now being pointed out by me. A drop in the USD is good for GOLD…

 

USD DAILY NOW – Friday showed that day 8 was likely the top, The USD Dropped below the 10sma. I see a swing high and this is overbought. The USD selling off should help Precious Metals…

 

USD WEEKLY – Rejected again and again at the double resistance on a weekly, it looks like the USD is ready to finally drop ( and  GOLD should rally).  What?  The Long awaited ICL in Gold?  I think so.  Let’s discuss Precious Metals now that we’ve seen the US Dollar situation…

 

PRECIOUS METALS

 

 

GOLD KEEPS DROPPING, BUT I HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE MANY TIMES.  I really have.  Often people keep trying to buy the dips & remain very bullish when an ICL is due, but they must keep getting stopped out until fear prevents them from believing that GOLD is still a good buy.  This is the very kind of selling that is designed to “Flush out the weak hands” and to “Change the bullish Sentiment by emotionally scaring people away” while bigger players can enter.

You will read many  reasons why ‘Precious Metals are toast’,  ‘Gold is an Old relic with no value’, etc. etc. at an ICL. Ignore the crowd mentality, an ICL will form and Gold is going to rally.

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COT – The COT , as of last Tuesday, was  slightly better than last Julys ICL, and better than Decembers 2017 too. Gold dropped a bit more last week, so it probably even got better.

 

 

GOLD DAILY  – Gold put in a reversal on Friday.   Look at the steep drop of the last 3-4 weeks, but my propitiatory indicators are not dropping.  That is BULLISH, we should be at or close to the lows.

 

CLOSE UP GOLD DAILY FRIDAY REVERSAL – Here is the reversal Friday.

1. The lows of Thursday were not taken out, and the highs were, that is a swing low.

2. If Gold moves higher, we get further confirmation

3. Remember that the USD looks set to drop on a daily & weekly

4. We are LATE in our cycle timing

 

GOLD WEEKLY  – A very Nice Reversal Candle on the weekly chart.  I am using Green Arrows to show that once the lows are in, you get ‘weeks’ of upside as it sling shots out of the lows.  That would make my day thumbs up emoticon

 

SILVER WEEKLY  – Reversal Candle on Silvers weekly chart too.

 

GDX WEEKLY – Miners started to sell off, but nothing like Gold.  THAT is a big deal. We could see Miners do a quick FLUSH below the lower trend line, but so far Miners have been resisting Golds sell off.

 

GDXJ – GDXJ Is on support at this point.

 

And then you have the Miners,  which I have tried to put on display here to show how they are being accumulated despite the Metals selling off.   I have pointed out strong Miners racing higher as Gold sells off, like KL, GORO, RGLD, etc.

 

GORO-– Would you know by looking at this miner that Gold has been selling off?

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Now lets take 1 more quick look, I am now going to show you some of the  Miners that may still  be near or at their lows, because they could quickly play catch up with a GOLD ICL.  Then our weekend wrap up is finished.

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TRX –  When I say  Jim Sinclair, what do you think of?  Yes, Gold.  🙂  I have owned  Tanzanian Royalty in 2018. As Gold sold off to new 1 yr lows, this is actually trending higher. That was a solid reversal at support on Thursday July 19. Also the rally from March lows to May highs was roughly a 100% gainer for the alert trader. I sold that rally to lock in gains, but re-entered recently.

 

DRD WEEKLY – I mentioned that I bought DRD a couple of days ago, and now I see the weekly chart as a break out & back test. It was up 6% last week.

 

MUX WEEKLY – The weekly chart of MUX does not look like “Gold has been selling off and will not stop” like you read in ‘popular’ bearish reports.    It has been slowly rising for weeks and Popped this week 10%.  The Weekly RSI is over 60. This is not bearish action at the lows,  it is bullish, even  though GOLD is at 1 year lows.

 

EGO WEEKLY  –   I see EGO as a large inverse H&S too, and it closed above the 10ma on a weekly chart. If the RSI on a weekly basis is about to cross the 50% as Gold sells off to 1 yr lows,  that is also Bullish action, not bearish.

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I AM BULLISH.   MANY MINERS ARE SETTING UP NICELY.    Our Current set up in Gold looks Bullish too.  We are due for an ICL in Gold & we have a reversal late in our daily cycle as of Thursday.  On top  of that, the USD is set to drop into an DCL, and it is even coming due for an ICL over time.

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The sling shot has been stretched back over the past few weeks,  I’d love to see Gold start to Make Our Day this week!  We will watch for some upside follow through to ‘confirm’ whether or not  GOLDS LOWS are in place.   It does look very good, with Miners leading the way and the USD topping.    party blower smiley

 

~ALEX

 

SIDENOTE:  Recap & Review of 2 other sectors.

 

AKS – Last week I mentioned that I liked other metals too.  I used this chart of AKS, and mentioned to see  X, CLF, CLD.

 

CLF  –  CLF had some pretty sweet follow through Friday, so the other Metals may still have some too.

 

And the URANIUMS were pointed out weeks ago as having bullish set ups. This was UUUU breaking out in June…

UUUU – 3 weeks ago,  UUUU was up 25%, and then consolidated.  Others did this also.

 

UUUU – After consolidating, and quite frankly, looking a bit ugly Wednesday on that POP & DROP, it put in a reversal candle Thursday and popped 13,50% Friday. This is a bullish set up.

 

 

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Beautiful At The Top

I am not saying that we are at THE TOP, but I have been saying that we could be due for A top. One thing that I have found to be true when trading the markets is this:  It is always Doom & Gloom right before a bottom is in place, and Everything is Beautiful when we are at or near a  top.  Right now the buzz is all about bullish earnings, and how you need to be buying the stock market bull run.  Well, we were buying at a dcl 3 weeks ago, but now?  I discussed my thoughts on Googles  earnings yesterday, so lets look at the charts and see what they are telling us...

 

I'm going to start with GOOG, because all the buzz on Twitter and in trading forums Monday was how it shot up $70 after hrs on Monday, and now GOOG & the NASDAQ would just blast off higher.  People were saying that you need to just  "buy this Bull Market".   I wrote last week and in Monday nights report a bit of a different take on things, including Googles $60 Gap after hrs...

 

GOOG -  I used this chart to show that it GAPPED OPEN last October after a long sideways chop, and then it just stalled, went sideways for weeks, and drifted down to fill the gap over a month later. It didn't start a giant rally then, and may not this time due to the 'timing' of things.

GOOG -  Tuesday,  Yes  Google gapped up but it formed a Black topping candle.  Black candles at the top of a move usually exhaust or end the move.   I think that GOOGLE is going to stall and drift or drop soon.

Now let's look at the rest of the markets...

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Monday Review

Google

...had their earnings release and it Popped $50 to $80 after hrs

 

GOOGLE -  This was GOOGLE  ( Alphabet) at the close.  Notice that it has formed a long choppy consolidation all year long.  With the earnings release,  a  break out could happen Tuesday.

So I Caught the POP after hours on this chart.  It is a 6% break out if it holds overnight, but tomorrow on your charts, it will be a GAP OPEN.

 

There are a few things that I wanted to point out with GOOGLES earnings and the affect on the NASDAQ...

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Go Ahead – Make My Day

Lets review the markets , and then I will discuss the purpose of the Theme Pic

   

SPX- I have been saying since the DCL that one should let their long positions ride, use stops that should be raised along the way, and I would assess things as we get to day 15...

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Friday July 19

It's the last day of the trading week, lets talk about...

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