August – ‘It’s About Time’ – 29th

We will talk about this and what it could mean for the Miners,

after a brief review…

 

NATGAS – Look at NATGAS reversal.  Natgas dropped below the recent lower trend line and then quickly reversed higher again. Then look at the Gold chart from Friday posted directly under it.

 

Gold on Friday  looks very similar to the Natgas chart above. Gold exploded the next day, so this is something that we can watch for. I mentioned that this could be a quick “Shake out” in the gold report this weekend.  It could be the same for Natgas.

 

WTIC – Oil dropped to a new low and that most likely means that it is seeking out the dcl, because it never got above the overhead trend line ( magenta) with the bounce off of the 50sma.  Unfortunately, this causes buyers of the 50ma to get stopped out & often it will then reverse higher,  but if I took this trade,  a stop is a protection, and I would allow myself to be stopped out  JUST IN CASE Oil drops further.  I can always get back in (  I actually am not invested in any Energy / oil at this time).  This would be day 48 and that is not so uncommon with Oil.

 

 

USD – The USD seems to be breaking down again.  We have seen several ‘false breaks’ & then a bounce as shown on this chart, but if this finds follow through,  Gold should meet the upper targets that I am about to show.

 

GOLD  –  This is how Gold & Silver closed the day .  Gold was Up almost $20 at $1309.30…

 

And then it continued in after hours to $1319.90 at this point.  If this doesn’t drop by the morning, ‘shorts’ are about to get crushed.

 

I have had a few people ask me where a good place to go short would be.  My recommendation is not to short this move thinking that it must be topping out.  It is NOT overbought yet, and those shorting it will be forced to cover as it races higher. Sometimes these long consolidations and triangle breaks can run before slowing down. It is a bullish set up at this point. I’m going to give some price targets at times, but these are just math projections,  not places to go short.  Let’s take a look…

 

GOLD  –  Our break out above the rounded resistance number of $1300 and a day 14 peak so far.   Cycles can peak on day 15, 18, 20, 24..wherever they want.   This  adds to the likelihood that this will be bullishly right translated.  GOLD IS NOT OVERBOUGHT HERE.

GOLD TARGETS –  These have been my targets for gold if we get the price break out. $1333 seemed like a lot, but we are almost there already.  Does $1380 seem like a lot?  I will show you something…

GOLD AUGUST 9th –  This was my chart from August 9 looking for a big move.  So…

GOLD –  A ‘normal’ run to the former highs is also roughly $1375, and a run to $1333 looks small on this chart, right?

 

GOLD WEEKLY  –  The weekly chart shows that these moves can happen rather easily too, like next week by day 21, for example. I’m NOT saying that is what we WILL see, I am showing you how it is not impossible, it is attainable.  This week and next week could tag that purple line.

 

GOLD – Eventually we need even higher price, or we remain stuck inside of this huge base / consolidation.

SILVER – Last week I said that Silver was pushing & pushing & pushing on that 200sma, often building energy to break out.

SILVER– Boom. Silver has built up some energy  ( and those shorting it) to really run if it gets going.

SILVER WEEKLY  – Notice how Silver moved in the 2016 run, on this weekly chart

GDXJ  – At 11 A.M. I captured this beautiful specimen. It moved on higher, closing up 3.83%, near the highs.

GDX – GDX closed up 3.63% and the measured move leads to anywhere near the former highs of February. Another measured move eventually takes it to new highs.

 

GDX – Look at the mid point consolidation in January out of the ICL, and then the next move ran straight up. That can be people shorting it and being forced to cover, and additional buyers jumping in.

 

What about individual Miners?  They look very good.

 

SA AUG 16 – After Gold sold off $10 on a Monday and $10 more on the following Tuesday, I started pointing out stronger miners that were GREEN when Gold dropped $20. This was SA when Gold was down $20  ( I called it sand on the chart, but labeled it SA.

SA – Then I pointed out the progress in SA, an inverse H&S was forming last week as it turned the RSI higher above 50%

SA – IT is going after the 2017 highs with this break out. Miners are acting very bullishly again.

NSU –  I posted this one to say that if you see one bottoming like this, it is a low risk buy with a stop right below the lows of the consolidation.  Guess what?

EXK – I then said that this base looks like NSU to me, it is a buy with a close stop.  Guess what?

EXK –  It was up over 8% today. Raise stops and enjoy the ride. Even the beaten down miners are looking very good now.

MUX –  EVEN MUX is shooting out of the lows  🙂  Notice on MUX that we had a slam down to the lows, a consolidation, and then a burst higher.

BTG –  I see that exact same thing happening here.  Another Miner that no one liked, is now coming out of one of those lows that consolidated.

DRD –  SO I look at DRD and I see a long healthy base, and I bought this on Monday.  If this runs to the 200sma, it is a great % gain.

DRD –  In fact, look at DRD when it popped from one of these bases in 2016. $1 to $9 was pretty good.

AUY – AUY has been working its way out of the July lows. It also moved off of the lows, went sideways, and is now ( choppy) moving higher. It even broke out above the 200sma.

 THM –  I love this set up.  I don’t love the volume at all times, but Monday it came in nicely and THM has been riding the 200sma and now broke right above the 50sma. This is a pretty low risk buy because it is still near the base (  in the base).

 BAA – Whoa, even  BAA popped on Monday, and it popped 23% moving above a downtrend line on huge volume for it lately! It is also VERY OVERSOLD.

GSS –  I bought GSS near the 50sma early this morning and it just continued higher into the close.  This looks like it wants to break out here, and I may add again on Tuesday if it doesn’t gap open.  WHY? Even though GSS looks like it is right at the lows…

GSS WEEKLY – GSS has only done a 50% pull back from the 2016 run.  I think that shows strength for  such a small junior, to resist that sell off.  This could double with a run to $1.40 and this chart indicates that this could happen in the next bull run.

GSV –  This is a buy here , in my opinion.  It has a long base and is acting correctly.

 

So we will be monitoring our positions in Gold, Silver, & Miners, and at the same time, I will be searching for bullish set ups that will be forming in various Miners too.  In the past, I have seen lagging Miners move out of their lows while Gold is pulling back into a dcl, and that makes for good trading.   In fact,  didn’t you and I see several Miners moving higher while Gold sold off $10 on a Monday and $10 on a Tuesday 2 weeks ago?  This is the personality of Miners. During corrections, they are hated and thrown away as though they are just colored dirt. During the moves higher? All those little mining stocks suddenly become like the tiny specs of Gold in a gold miners pan. People can’t get enough of them.

They glitter and everyone just wants to hold one in their hands, no matter how small they are. Yes, in the coming months,  most, if not all  Miners will eventually have their day in the spotlight.  They will also  have their pullbacks, but we should be able to trade miners and make good money as long as this run lasts.

And with the long triangles and lengthy consolidations that we just endured, a nice run higher may last into the end of the year.  Enjoy your Tuesday trading,  and why not pick up a Miner that is near support or near the lows if you are finding yourself a bit short on Miners at this point. I may add to GSS and start a position in THM or GSV  today myself.  Happy trading!

 

~ALEX

 

 

Trades in place

 

IPI – If  IPI drops to the 50sma in this large flagging consolidation, it will be a buy. I sold 1/2 of my large position Monday, just in case this drop occurs.  I wanted to mention this ahead of time, so you could buy or add to a current position near $3.10-$3.20 and …

IPI BIG PIC – Ride this bull.  This is why I dont want to sell all of my IPI, this could just break out & run.  I AM A TRADER,  INVESTORS CAN JUST HOLD THROUGH THE BUMPS.

SID – SID could break out soon after this consolidation too, but it also may tag the 50sma in a back test first, and then move higher. I sold this stock and mentioned it in the comments section, but NOT because I thought there is something wrong. Its just that it could take time to consolidate this way, and I wanted to just lock in gains and possibly use the money elsewhere.  I also may re-enter later.