In a recent weekend report I discussed what I thought about the USD going forward, also using the recent action in the XJY as a historical guide. It could affect Gold in a big way. This is important, since The Big Picture of the USD has paused and may be preparing to choose a direction to move in again soon.
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USD – After a strong run up in 2014, the USD paused and flagged. It could drop & back test the trend line, that would help Gold further. As a bull flag, it would run higher. That might not be so good for Gold.
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We are also watching Oils activity
WTIC WKLY LONG TERM– Oil looks close to putting in lows, but it has for a while now. Read the charts.
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GOLD SILVER & MINERS
I had been following the possible break out in XJY:USD and in miners. We see it here in this Feb 12th chart. This evidence still favors Lows in Gold, Silver, and Miners, as discussed in a prior report.
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GOLD I had 2 views for Gold, and it looks like this one may be playing with a pullback.
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I would expect that Golds price would eventually test the 200sma, but this can occur later when the 200 is rising. Shown here is a possible 38% retrace back down to the top of the cup shown near $1180. A 50% retrace is $1154.65. Either is possible, time will tell.
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GDX MONTHLY UPDATE – This chart posted a week ago is one that I have been following for a while. I also posted an updated one in this weekends report.
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30 yr chart of the XAU. Did you miss the last move? It may just be the start of a larger run. That move that we just put in looks tiny from this view.
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We also reviewed some of the recent gains of the miners that we had discussed before.
MUX– Look for the base.
The run has begun, and could mimic the multi week drop on the left on the way to the top.
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Even the ‘cheaper’ priced Miners have been running quickly with large %-Gains.
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TGD was pointed out before it ran.
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BAA and AUMN are ready to launch in my opinion.
So we are definitely seeing many reasons for believing that the Big Picture is changing as expected. The Bear market lows could definitely be behind us with that classic shake out move in miners in January. We see Gold and Miners breaking above prior Intermediate cycle highs. Many that were stopped out and left behind may now have to buy later and that could push this higher too. The set up is very encouraging and we will be trading it and following it to the best of our ability here. Some “Mining Stocks” may act individually and set up even when Gold itself is pulling back, and that will be noted too. We saw this type of action when several Miners bottomed months, even yrs ago. Other may now have reason to do the same. I will be hunting for and sharing trading opportunities in this sector with that in mind.
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~ALEX
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