What’s Up? What’s Not Up :)

Excellent trading, that’s what has been up in 2016!  I keep telling myself not to get too used to it, because I know that following the fast run higher is a pullback or consolidation move. This year we are seeing various Sectors setting up at different time frames. We’ve been able to sell the run higher in some areas and move right into another lower risk set up. What’s up?  Very profitable trading!

CENX – This was recommended at the lower end of this consolidation over a week ago.  It tagged that 50sma at $6.50 and the 50sma acted as support and price bounced off .

CENX – Over $7 – It was still a buy

CENX – Is this a double top or just the start of a major run higher?

 

This is how I see CENX and several other trades that we put on…

 

The Big picture just shows that CENX can really go a lot higher. There were drops to the 50sma in 2014’s run, but as we’ve seen lately, these can really run when accumulation starts. The stochastics and RSI are not overbought yet. I think CENX can run higher.

QUICK REVIEW of important areas to our trades.

 

WTIC –  We are still early in the 2nd daily cycle. Even if OIL stalls, Energy stocks can continue to run higher. That volume shows that we may just blow right through higher.

Do you recall on APRIL 12 on day 4 for the CRB  that I posted this chart showing how when the CRB bottoms, we often get a “Hook” and then a run. That hook can shake out weak hands, it can be the 1-2 of a smaller 1-2-3-4-5 move too.  I expected a small drop. 

CRB – We got our hook, filled a gap, and we seem to now be ready to run. We do see overhead resistance, but that may not bother our commodities too soon.  I also see a 1-2-3-4-5 , with ‘5’ possibly at the 200sma.

 

NATGAS – Tuesday I mentioned that I want to see a quick POP.  There are reasons for that.

THANKS YOU!  So we see slight resistance here, but we could push right through to ‘x‘

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GOLD – It has been a sideways continuation for quite a while, but the set up looks bullish. I’m watching the overhead trendline.  No doubt that many Miners have been extremely Bullish. I cannot believe it, but after all of that consolidation, this chart has a Bullish set up to it. The COT is extremely high for smart money shorts at this point, but that happens coming out of the real lows.

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SILVER –  Maybe the Miners knew that Silver would not lag forever?  You take a look at EXK, AG, CDE, GPL, etc and you will see that Silver stocks did not log at all. WOW!

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At this point, lets talk about trades

Yesterdays report and especially the last 2 Friday reports have had charts and stock picks.  Some were consolidating , others set up bullishly in other ways.  They are performing excellently.  I know this,  because I get concerns that  “My stock is only up 5%,  is something wrong with it?”   What that really means is , “Why are all the other Energy/ Commodity  stocks up 15%? Mine is only 7%”.  That is a very good sign  🙂

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Yesterday I posted a copper / Gold Mining stock that I found and bought.  I mentioned in the report that it was a good set up and could still be bought yesterday.  What about now?  It is possible that this is the last chance to buy it here or if it pulls back today.  WHY?  Lets review.

HBM – Great potential.  The key is the consolidation adds fuel to the run. 

 

Tuesday it tacked on another 16%.  Obviously, it is now too late to buy, right?  Well, it is at the 200 sma, so Maybe it’ll give us a  pullback to the 50sma – BUT – it may not get there. Why? 

HBM is a Copper Stock and also Gold.  I like to compare apples to apples.  Is that a favorable sector right now?  If so, this may just break out further and run.

 

FCX – Also GOLD & COPPER.  I posted this as a buy last week .

And this Tuesday morning.

FCX Tuesday –  FCX broke out above its 200sma over the past week, and was up almost 10% yesterday.  Copper stocks are Bullish too.

TGB –  Also Copper , up 17% Tuesday.

NCQ WKLY  – This is a product of Nova Gold.  This weekly chart is a bullish set up too, so Copper stocks are acting bullishly.  THAT means that  HBM  may just break that 200sma and run, since it has already consolidated ahead of time.

SO with a 1&1/2 month sideways move, HBM  may just follow my original path here. Hey, even $4 to $6 is 50% 🙂

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I didnt have EVEP on my watch list, but DAVE brought it up in the comments section today – Thanks Dave.  I think that it is a great set up no matter how I look at it  ( Daily, Weekly, etc).  I KNOW NOTHING ABOUT THE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS,  but the chart is sweet, so I thought that I would share it here. Click on charts to see them better.

 

EVEP has higher lows within this base and a few high volume pops. If I am trading a stock that just takes off like a rocket,  I like to sell some and look for a low risk candidate to start the process over again.  This is really looking good.  I will post it in the future if it breaks out- you should add it to your list too. 

 

EVEN ‘TRADING’ in & out of  EVEP IS PROFITABLE – “Buy low, Sell high!”  Think about it,  that’s about $1 from low to high.  2000 shares, $2000 bucks/ month.  5000 shares, $5000 bucks/ month .  Use it until it breaks —- Send Dave 10%.  

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Yesterday in the ‘comments’ / chat section ,  I mentioned those crazy runs in GSS, TGD, VGZ, AUMN, etc.  I said that BAA was ‘looking good’.  There is something there ( I think).  I posted this, click to enlarge …

Back in FEB my original thought was that these are going to be gunning for former recent highs, and I drew this.  We stalled $0.30 and consolidated. Hmmm,  Mid point?

 

 

BAA at the close.  I cant say that this is very low risk due to the timing, but a stop below the 50sma makes it safer.  I own a core from the teens and I added Monday and Tuesday. If Gold crashes, this may drop, I’ll stop out of everything not ‘core’.  If Gold continues sideways…

We may see this.  Do you see what I see? I bought TGD  near the 50sma / BREAK OUT area too. 

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I had a bunch of trade set ups in yesterdays report and I think they were all Green, some by quite a bit. Lets look at a few more ideas.  ( By the way  AA, CENX, FCX  may just be starting and still could be bought , and if it pulls back to test the break out, its even more of a buy).

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RIG – Moving above the BUY, but with that much possible upside, it could be bought & scalped for a few days in my opinion. 

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CLNE -Looks like it could really run.

 

I recently mentioned here that I used to trade JOY & BOOM.  They used to really move swiftly when they got going.

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JOY WKLY – When I posted this, didnt this look like it wanted to run from $15 to $40?

JOY- Well it has started.  On the next pullback, this may be a good buy.

I also posted BOOM  with a rounding bottom base  ( I no longer trade it due to the low volume, but that may increase in the future if  Funds try to buy).

 

Boom – So JOY & BOOM could go on a watchlist to buy a pullback.

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PQ –  This is an easy buy and hold.  Your stop could be safely below the rising  50sma. This could have been bought everyday for the last several weeks as it slowly rises here.  It remains a buy.

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TMST – Since I first started talking about this steel company near the $6.00  50sma break out , they have slowly doubled.  If the commodity sector is recovering, I believe that it will more than double again.

TMST now – You can see that this was a slow sideways moving stock.  BORE YOU TOO TEARS at times , but patience has paid off. POP – Sideways – POP – Sideways.  It just Popped above the 200sma, buy it in 2 weeks or so if it goes sideways along the 200sma, but this may also just run strong due to the consolidation period that it just went through.

BCEI – BCEI looks ready to pop. I think this could be bought anywhere in this area with a stop.

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So those are a few more trade ideas.  I would write some of these names  from today or past reports down on a post-it note and check them out as the day ( or days ) go by.  LOOK TO SEE WHEN THEIR EARNINGS MIGHT BE COMING UP. If they pull back,  maybe to support shown on the charts, you may see a better opportunity to buy appear.  Some can be bought right now as they consolidate,  like we did with CENX and AA.  This is because we have a stop and a sector or 2 that are on fire.

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Trading and investing has been very  good to us lately.  My daily reports feel like weekend reports!    The set ups still look good, so all we can do is continue to use them to our advantage until the time comes when the move is exhausted or finished.  Then it will be best to be patient again and wait for some good trade set ups to form.  For today, have a happy Wednesday.

 

~ALEX

 

REMINDER:  These set ups are based on technical analysis, not fundamentals. There are risks in some Energy companies of financial troubles, there are huge rewards as you have seen, during a possible recovery.   When MINERS had their worst fundamentals in January, they were the best buying opportunity around. If the Metals run higher, these companies improve future earnings.  If they aren’t going bankrupt and the sector recovers, they would be viewed as beaten down too much and undervalued.  ENERGY & COMMODITY stocks seem to be the same, but please check YAHOO FINANCE or another source and know when your investments earnings dates are scheduled. That can be when they POP or DROP and you must be willing to do a little homework to protect your funds, deciding to BUY, SELL, or HOLD.