Public Post – OIL & GOLD

I’m going to share a portion of the premium report from Tuesday.  We had been invested in Miners from the shake out lows, but most of what was bought has had a spectacular run higher.  Now that there could be a consolidation phase in precious metals, does anything else look interesting?   Have you seen  VALE, FCX, CENX, etc?  Commodities are making some nice steady gains. I’m also looking at The Energy Sector among other things.  From Tuesdays report…

 

I think OIL is putting in lows  (temporary or permanent remains to be seen).   Lets discuss a few ideas as to why I think we are at lows in Oil. 

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On November 13th ,  I said that my OIL WKLY target was $26.09

Did we hit $26.09?

OIL  hit $26.05 .   Oil has been hitting against the 20sma and selling  off repeatedly.  Can we break above it now?  Check out the following charts.

XLE-  XLE made Higher lows while Oil dipped to new lows. This chart is bullish.

XOM – Notice that since last summer the lows are in in Exxon Mobile?

CVX – Lows are in here too,  with OIL at new lows?

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I posted a few charts on FEB 10 to show that while OIL was breaking down, some energy stocks were holding up. WTI was one for example.

WTI  is the same price today with sideways action as Oil dipped to new lows.

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 This chart was actually posted in todays report.   I pointed out that SWN already doubled from $5 to $10 and has consolidated.   Look at that potential.  $5 to $30 of it returns to former highs over time. 

I then pointed out a few other trade ideas in this sector.

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So while we had a very strong run higher in the Precious Metals & Mining sector, it seems to be time for them to consolidate their gains.  It could be a big drop or it may just flag out for a while, we’ll have to wait and see.     While watching how things unfold,  the Energy sector and other areas of the markets may be the place to make some trades.

 GOLD #1  – Gold is overbought, so I wanted to point out that a multi week repeat of the  blue box sell off from overbought to over sold is possible.  It doesn’t have to be straight down, but it could be.  A tag of the 200sma soon? 38% retrace? 50%? Time will tell.

GOLD #2 –  A bull flag with large swings shaking people out, eventually tagging the 50sma?

It is pointless to draw every scenario that I  see as possible for Gold & Miners.  We will just allow time to do it’s thing and we’ll keep an eye on it going forward.

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If this type of analysis could be helpful to your trading and you would like to sign up,  it’s $37.95  for 1 month.  You’ll get access to all prior reports and the next month. I cover the general market movement, The USD, OIL and Energy, Precious Metals and Miners.  Thanks for being here.

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~ALEX