Public Post – Market Madness

We saw quite a few reversals by the close of trading on Wednesday. Below are excerpts From Tuesday  nights  premium newsletter.

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NASDAQ –  The futures are up over 100 to 200 points each morning,  but the rally fades.  What to do?   Wait for a reversal and a move above the 9sma to be safe.

Here is the SPX …

I do expect a reversal and a good bounce soon, but it may just roll over after a tag of the 50sma .  We’ll look at it closer when the time comes .  Notice the choppy  buying and selling of the past few days.   Up , down, up, down.   Is this really unexpected? Is it completely different than anything we’ve ever seen?  No, not at all….

SPX  summer 2008 –  Look familiar? A similar pattern of jumpy choppy trading and then the multi week ( rather ‘weak’ ) rally kicked in.  The rally went from Mid July and lasted 2 months.  So we could reverse and see a multi week rally ,  but then what?

The SPX recovered the 50sma a few times , sucking in the bulls, and then crashed. Normal distribution at tops. 

 So we will watch the reversal and rally carefully when it unfolds.

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WTIC –  We MIGHT be starting to see capitulation selling. So far we bounce to the 20sma, go sideways, and start another leg down. If we capitulate ,  we may see final lows soon.

NATGAS –  Natty tried to reverse on Monday.  I am still watching the fib #’s.  

Re-Gaining the 50sma would be bullish. I didn’t have it on the last chart,  so it is shown here.

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GOLD, SILVER, MINERS  

Ok, in the weekend report I emphasized how Bullish the Gold charts looked, and how the Silver chart looked normal too.  That would imply that Miners would follow Gold higher,  right?  Gold remains bullish, but Miners broke down Tuesday      I will discuss this further at the end of the report.

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GOLD – Still healthy and a bullish set up.

Silver  – It looks like it wants to break higher.  These 2 charts give NO REASON that Miners should break down…

GDX –  Yet they did Break down.  It looks like a legitimate break down, but it could recover.

In the premium report,  I gave 2 ideas as to why the Miners broke down, but also showing that they could recover  in a “Shake out” type move.   I’ll skip that here and go right to a couple of charts showing a shake out.

Notice the GDX closed at the lows with increased  volume. Can this recover?

This chart looks very similar to the above GDX drop.  Price closed near  the lows with a volume spike just like GDX above. Was it doomed to continue lower?…

No –  It recovered and formed an  inverse H&S.

  So  as of Tuesday night, Gold & Silver still  looked Bullish, but miners broke down fast.  Why?      Was it a shake out, like Sept 11?  Will they recover?      Cash was a good position for Tuesday, but I will be discussing in the report for Thursday what I am seeing after today.  It also includes that sweet reversal in the IBB  ( see also IDRA, TROV, ZIOP, etc)  ,  the reversal in the general markets, Energy, and what I expect for Gold & Miners.  If you’d like to try a month for $37.95   ( we also offer a quarterly or yrly discounted rate), at the top of the page there is a sign up tab with more information.  Thanks for being here!

~ALEX