Golden Delivery

The Precious Metals markets have been tricky lately, selling off to new lows day after day.   There were clues along the way that were foretelling the big move that we see today.  You can read my last report here under the public blog to see what I was looking at and expecting. This update will give add  recent charts used in this weeks reports.

GOLD DEC 2 – Prices kept hitting new lows, but the Miners were staying above their 10sma. I was pointing out that the rising MACD and the C.O.T. report were actually just a couple of the Bullish signs indicating that soon Gold & Silver should rally higher.

This is the GLD today

Below I will share with you through part of Wednesday night report, as we approached the DRAGHI meeting Thursday morning. This is what we were looking at, and  I’ll briefly discuss what can be expected moving forward.  I should add that even though I did encouraged buying stocks like SA, NG, etc.,  I wasn’t 100% gangbusters bullish –  I wanted to see Gold / Silver break free from that bottom too.

.

From the 12-2-2015 , Wednesday evening report

…

Reminder: DRAGHI speaks Thursday morning. It could affect the dollar.

.

USD – I’ve been talking about this possible bearish rising wedge. There is a bit more room to go higher, but this looks like a topping candle and that MACD crossed under as the dollar hit new highs. That MACD is not bullish.

$WTIC – After pointing out that OIL failed and cycle-wise could drop for a couple of weeks, Wednesday shouldn’t be much of a surprise. This was the idea going forward- 

Nov 13 – called for a down trend starting.  lower highs and lower lows. 

Or maybe just a base forms and we get a double bottom, due to XLE holding up? Either way, lower prices.

Also this longer term chart showed a wedge with room for OIL to  drop into the $30’s and then bottom.

.

GOLD –  Gold fell to NEW LOWS WEDNESDAY AGAIN, and even fell further in after hours into the $1040’s.   I would actually LOVE to tag that $1033 area and get it over with if it is necessary.   Volume is lightening up.  Notice that the MACD is rising while price is dropping –  that is interesting, huh?  ( Amazingly , Miners did NOT follow again). 

SILVER – Ditto, silver fell to new lows in after hrs,  but notice that the MACD is about to cross positive?

GDX – With GOLD & SILVER selling off, we all know that the Miners get absolutely crushed.  Well they aren’t.  I accidentally put the 20sma on here, but both the 10& 20sma apply here.  The set up remains bullish with higher lows.

   SO I had mentioned GOLDS $1033 area several times.  I really wish we would hit it in pre-market for a test of the 2008 highs, since Miners look to be holding their own.  If Gold would tag that area,  it may turn higher and finally begin to rally. Price was only $12 dollars above it in after hrs.  Testing the 2008 area could be the final lows for Gold, but we’ll take it one step at a time for now.

  I expect a good rally to come about.  What will trigger it?  With yesterdays Fed Speech we saw  GDX  hold up well with Gold selling off.  Will Draghi’s speech finish the job?  What about the Jobs report Friday?  I do not know,  but Gold keeps selling into a very stretched situation and Miners are not following.  Gold is due for  a low.   I have a ‘stop’ in place in case GDX breaks the lows, but they are holding up very well despite selling in the precious metals. I’m not saying to  go 100% leveraged here,  but I would buy the dips and accumulate a few Miners that are acting correctly.  Some are even above their 50sma or 10sma  as Gold makes new bear mkt lows  ( SA is a sweet chart if you ask me,  Check out the chart of NG with Gold at lows. ).  You can add later too, when you see evidence of the rally in Gold unfolding.  I do believe it is coming soon.

~ALEX

Reminder:   C.O.T. –  Smart Money is more bullish than any other time in the past 14 yrs… since the yr 2001!!  I imagine that this would  improve with every day down in Gold.  Smart Money is likely buying these dips.

Friday 12-4-2015 –

  So today we see that Gold & SILVER have begun that anticipated rally.   I had a few people telling me ( as mentioned in the last public report), that they were heavily shorting this sector because they expected the final flush to Gold under $1000.  I wrote my last public report to try to help them to see what I was seeing and at least use stops.  I have also heard that this is “Just a bounce, a short covering rally that will last for a day or two.”  I disagree.

   This has the makings of an ICL, and that becomes a  very trade-able long multi week rally, even in a bear market. Not straight up, but higher for weeks.

See prior ICL’s on this Wkly Gold Chart during our bear market.

   We do need further confirmation to determine what we are looking at exactly.   That will come in time and I will cover that  in future reports.  This is most likely the  Yrly lows for Gold.  The question is : Is it a Bear market low,  ending the correction that we have seen since 2011, or just another temporary run that rolls over again to a flush out bottom below  $1000?   That is what I will be trying to focus on in future reports, and of course I will cover more in the weekend report released on Sunday night or pre market Monday. 

 Thanks for checking us out and if you find that this type of analysis, combining cycle work with T/A,  would have been a helpful tool to add to your trading, why not try us out for 1 month?  Its only $37.95 and with that you get 4-5 reports / wk.  Have a great weekend and happy trading!

~ALEX