JUMP!
If you’re a premium reader here, then you know what we’ve been getting a little excited about, even wondering out loud if it’s possible that …??? Well, We’ll get to that in a minute, first lets discuss a few other charts : )
SPX – When this consolidation breaks, the move should last for a while
The NASDAQ looks a little different…
NASDAQ– This looks like it wants to drop. It has the look of a wedge that broke down & Back tested. This may continue to churn sideways, but I’d be cautious unless it really breaks higher and then this sideways consolidation could run higher too.
OIL & NATGAS continue to act as expected. They’ve been bullish.
OIL may meet its 200sma soon ( And find resistance)
NATGAS is still early in its move, just dont expect straight up each day. Thursdays have NATGAS reports that can cause some waves.
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OK- This is the part where we JUMP! WHY?
I have mentioned that MINERS look bullish to me, and I have said in my reports that despite the fear that I read in other blogs, etc- I see MINERS as bullish while GOLD & SILVER seems to be inside triangles or sideways consolidations. These moves make it difficult for Cycles technicians to read (Difficult for me to read using cycles too). Using T/A I trade what I see in different ways. I have mentioned buying BAA, GSS, LSG, MUX and a couple other Miners not mentioned here. Now we have a break out that clarifies a few things and gives us the idea that MAYBE MINERS are being accumulated and bottomed already. More on that in a minute, first…
GOLD- I could show many charts where I said that GOLD fooled so many people last NOV-DEC & I think we may be seeing the same. I posted this in my MAY 3 wkend report to point that out.A stop run on DAY 37 last Dec. Did we see the same.
GOLD –A quick Stop run (See the light blue arrows ) causes many to say that it broke lows and “Failed”. I buy those and did start buying last week as mentioned here. Others here also traded NUGT. Now we see GOLD break higher. We are on day 8 of the GOLD CYCLE.
Its not Super LOW RISK, so I wasn’t pounding the table here, but my weekend reports have featured METALS & MINERS to prepare us for a bullish surprise. See My GOLD REPORT MAY 3
http://www.chartfreak.com/2015/05/wkend-report-gold-other-stuff/
SILVER- I pointed this out on MAY 8, last weekends report
JUMPED. That is a valid break out 🙂
WKLY GDX – From Last weekends report.
The Bullish point is that GDX has a series of higher lows and is right translated. ( Gold is not right translated).
GDX– Bullishly bounced off of the 50sma and now is challenging the $20.90 of prior highs.
I really like SILVER and the SILVER STOCKS looked primed. I pointed out SSRI the other day bouncing off of the 50sma.
It POPPED- so did PAAS and a few others.
I am simply going to post a few Bullish charts of Miners. This was MUX and I think it has great future potential
GSS– This is just to show what possibly a little short covering & Good news can do to these Miners after being hated and beaten down for so long. I bought that good news Pop from the base last week.
SVLC– Silver stock . I was away for much of the day yesterday , but returned at the close and I LOVED the look of this set up . I bought it at the close and may just hold it longer term. If it drops today back down to its 50sma, I may add.
CDE WKLY- Silver stock. Just to show that this doubled last Nov and has pulled back to a perfect spot on the weekly charts. Higher low too. CDE did NOT break out big yesterday, it could be bought here.
So this JUMP in metals may indicate good things to come longer term. From here GOLD/SILVER/MINERS may Pop & Drop and Rock N Roll , but I see further upside in Miners after the recent pullbacks and consolidations. If I see anything of interest over Today & Tomorrows trading, I will try to cover it in this coming weekend report. Miners are early in their Daily Cycle and I see many that didn’t really move too much, so these can be bought today or on future dips. Silver stocks like PAAS, EXK, MVG, SVM, and so on may start moving ( please consider earnings release dates before you buy- surprises may be upside or down).
Also please re-read the GOLD section of my past weekend report if you are new here and never had the chance to. Or if you are like me and you just need some reminders , you may want to review it again.
http://www.chartfreak.com/2015/05/wkend-report-gold-other-stuff/
Happy trading
~ALEX
SZYM– I read the comments section yesterday and I guess SZYM sold off fast and recovered. It has been selling down for a while and is getting oversold, but I dont see a lot of BUYING on up days. One may want to wait for a recovery of the 50sma and a reversal candle or another bullish indication before entering again. IF you are still holding positions, I wouldn’t want a close below that trend line or 50sma for too long- I’d be out.
I had that trendline being broken yesterday on my chart, so I took another look to see why the difference. I realize now that it’s because I had it on log scale. So I took that off and drew it again and it matches yours, Alex.
I have no idea which works better, log or non, for trendlines, etc. I know I like this result better in non-log. 🙂 But that’s just confirmation bias at this point.
Hi Troy
I use LOG on charts over a year in length, linear for shorter time frames. It seems to work best for me.
Thanks, I’ll keep that in mind. Makes a certain kind of sense.
Chartfreak
Anything new with AUY looks like it has broken it’s downtrend triangle line from Jan. Thanks
It looks OK, it should do well in the longer time frame, but may be a little slower ( So far anyways.) I am noticing Silver Stocks are having more %-Gains
BAA – boom! So glad you pointed this one out, Alex. It was a sweet set up, and has acted so well.
MUX also – not the boom, but the set up and that I’m in it 🙂
I have accumulated this for a long time : ) I could just hear that weekly chart that I kept posting saying “patience will pay off”
I only had 20k shares, but should have bought more, you are right those bases want an explosion. I am up 30% from my buy point around 23-24 cents
Sweet : ) there are more, we’ll grab them when they perk up
Uraniums popped yesterday too. My URZ position is finally getting well. UEC is best of field for sure (unless I’m missing one that’s looked better).
I meant to post some charts, but ran out of time. Thx for reminding the group.
Uraniums are looking great. I think I missed the boat on these. They already out to sea. I do like URRE. I think the chart looks solid for a long term run. I might take a chance here, based on Harmonics. My 2 cents chart below
Bought URRE earlier.
And COFFEE is looking good today. Back above that trendline and a little backtest (5 min chart) this morning after hitting the 20/50 DMA confluence. If it closes above that I may take a position.
NBG is consolidating (coiling) nicely right under the 100 DMA which has shown itself to be meaningful on this chart. Nice set up here with the 20 just crossing over the 50. And it’s been finding support at the 13 EMA.
Hi A.
how significant is a break above this line (given that previous breaks have turned back)?
I would say quite significant : )
giggle
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Maria? 🙂
…..how do u hold a moonbeam in your hand…. ;o) ahh – a fav of mine… so fitting too.. he he
And I have NOT found a way to do either
lol…..#uLuvIt …
Any danger if we close back inside, or are we looking for a consolidation along that trendline?
I was cautious and sold my NUGT Yesterday $13.40. Now up to $14.00. But be aware we are approaching the upper trend line (purple below). We may get a pullback there. I’ll buy back on any real weakness.
Getting the pullback right at the upper trend line. Looks like a bear flag currently, I think we get back to $13.16 then a buy on NUGT
I didn’t think we would get the 38.2% pullback Today? We are pretty close already. Gap Close? Last two times we reached the upper channel we pulled all the way back to the lower one. I won’t catch the knife. Could go much lower if it breaks below 38.2%. If we get a strong bounce with conviction we could be in for a big ride up.
Bought a little chunk of SVM. If I’m not mistaken, their all in cost to mine is $10 and change. 2014 fiscal numbers report on May 21…FYI for those interested.
MGN, MGH , SVLC, BAA, EXK, FSM, etc etc : )
Oh man, I’d been watching HNR but never pulled the trigger. 🙁
Me too , after the first pop, and never entered either 🙁
I don’t know why as it was looking beautiful. I guess I just had my fill of sub-dollar stocks.
HIMX has a huge bullish engulfing developing today.
Wow on earnings I assume
I just bought it at 6.34
BAA up 20% great call Alex!
Thanks, I just hope some followed me on that. The weekly was great – its a buy & hold for me for a while now.
We may get a back test of this break out ( Gap fill), or maybe not, but I’ll still add if it does
I apologize on the SZYM chart above in the report. That was the 50sma and the 10sma
SZYM looks like a double bottom going back to mid April
It’s back over its 50DMA now. I’d like to see some buying come in now. I’d want to see a strong close if I weren’t already in it. It moves very fast.
NATGAS popping again. I don’t know what the COT report looks like but I’d bet there’s still some shorts to squeeze.
I only have a half position in nat gas. Have cash ready to add. If Alex or anyone sees good opportunity shout it out!
I mentioned RJA agriculture ETF the other day. Wheat’s up big today. The ags may actually be bottoming here, finally. I’d say when/if RJA gets back above the 50 DMA and 6.80 pivot we’ve got something going on.
POT, MOS, etc.?
Yeah, I’d say so. Good point. There’s generally a pretty high correlation between those and RJA: http://schrts.co/mECKEq
The outperformance lately (the last year or so) of those companies relative to RJA could also be a good tell that they (the commods) are getting ready to turn around.
Their charts aren’t particularly inspiring, They’ve been a wild ride the last couple of years. But based on the RJA correlation I’d say it’s a good bet; once RJA proves itself.
POT on the lower trend line, could be setting up, missed target on earnings.
RJA (on the strength of wheat primarily) is above that 6.80 pivot. Looking very good here. Follow thru tomorrow (or just not giving it back) will have me buying.
I mentioned buying ANGI on Tues and it’s perking up now, above the 50 DMA. Nice setup, IMO.
Too much going on! I need to focus. What’s the best investment right now? Alex, anyone, give me your best pick right now?
Silver – but probably better to wait for a pullback. I am holding SLV, SLW and EXK.
Thanks. Im going to wait on PM miners for a bit.
Miners and hold pulling back some this morning, but honestly, not that much. Check out silver leading from the front (which it has not in a long while)!
No kidding. Too many ideas/setups and not enough time (personal problem!) to work through them all!
What’s OIL upto…so frustrating range they are trading 59-61..decide allllll ready..
It will go up, Iranians causing trouble in the gulf, ISIS mucking things up in Syria, and summer driving coming into play.
Yes it could go up but ..oil bulls might want to buy on a meaning full pullback instead of buying highs only to end up bag holding like in the past..I want to buy actually..
I really want to get long but exercising patience here, waiting for right time. Still looks good in general and happy in energy but haven’t seen chance to go long leverage in WTI yet.
I can’t see any correlation to summer driving and oil price.
Gold has made a higher high now; definitely a new cycle, no question now.
That said, I think there’s a fair chance that it pulls back to retest 1200, and the 10 DMA. Half cycle low? It could also push a bit higher first though and then retest 1215 and the 10 DMA.
If we’re really in a new bull cycle then it’s not going to make it easy to duck in and out and avoid the small pull backs; consistently, at least (or with a lot of luck!).
If BAA closes at ( Or near) the highs of the day, I get the feeling that it is about to do what GSS & TRQ have done. I may be wrong, not saying jump in, just that I am not selling…That gap does not have to fill if its a break away gap.
I could live with that. 🙂
Look at MDW for an example of a miner going the opposite direction. Ugly
Nice turn around in SZYM (back above where I added yesterday, yay!) although the vol is nothing to write home about. Maybe tomorrow a big pop with vol. A lot might depend on what oil does, of course.
This one is not looking so hot to me anymore. It hasn’t attracted much buying interest at its 50DMA. Might reduce some in here.
Is this the oil and energy pullback I have been waiting for it is there more to some? Adding back 2nd half of KEG position this morning. Check out REXX turning green and regaining 10 day!
Gold and miners pullback very mild so far, quick counter trend DUST play for me from last night, short leash may sell today or Mon AM at latest.
Liking oil here. Entering a basket of calls, but giving it some room so out a few weeks up to Jun monthlies.
Rexx have another shot at entry here so took it.
Been contemplating a TLT long for bond sell off to share, almost went on Monday, would have been way too early. But for anyone else watching, this AM might have been your buy.
is this a pull back that might just drop to 57? or lower (55) to add the dips in OIL before the move to 65 or 68 -Anyone?
Alex …I’m looking to purchase SDRL on this pull back ….should I put an order in at the 50 sma ? Thanks
Hi Rain1122
When I just looked at SDRL right now, the volume seems a bit heavy for the first 2 hrs, but also it seemed to “Maybe” be turning back up? A possible reversal.
Here is something interesting about SDRL….pull it up using only a 16sma. See how it acts there in April? Then use both the 16sma and 20sma – Look for a reversal at that area and if you buy there, you can use the 20sma as a stop.
That is how I would try to buy it
Well I never would have thought to look at 16sma ….thanx…..I look at the CMF money flow and it looks as though money is leaving ….do you ever look at that indicator for clues? LOL
I used to use it more than I do now, but it changes short term fast. For example look at SDRL. CMF went below the zero line in April right when it was time to buy. It then went from $11 to $15.50, so CMF would have prevented someone from buying.
We have a nice reversal today at the 16 sma : ) So the buy was $13.35 today , and now price is $13.90
ANGI looking good today. Still looking for some big vol to come in though.
And AMCC is jumping nicely. Beautiful backtest of the 5.50 pivot.
EJ might be setting up nicely for another leg up, finding support at the 20 DMA
Many bemoaned (myself included) some oil stocks that reversed after stopping us out and it felt like they’d left without us. One of those for me was SD. Look at it now. Ugly. That’s what stop discipline will prevent. I got stopped out on Apr 28. The next day sucked, but I’m happy now.
Actually it was Apr 27 at 1.75
Yes, good work honoring the stops, that one is taking a licking.