Hanging In There

Not a whole lot has changed in the markets since yesterday, but you’ll see that they are still “hanging in There’ for now in many ways.  To the charts…

NASDAQ remains in a range-

The SPX actually looks a bit different ….

SPX – As I write futures are down , and it doesn’t look like the SPX has enough downside before it gets serious, so if we gap down today, it needs to reverse by the close or it could cause selling to escalate .  I would then expect a reversal back higher to “Test” the the breakdown & that might be a low risk  “Short” set up.   This does need more time though, the markets have been very bullish and difficult to short .

This is OIL Currently

NATGAS-  At lows. Oversold. “stop run” coming?

GOLD, SILVER, & MINERS

GOLD has held up better than the miners , Gold looks like a normal pullback and we would expect a bounce here. IF we are going lower in the long run, I would not expect a break of the recent highs ( $1221 or Above the 50sma).  If we do, I think we can assume that March 17 was an ICL.

SILVER is even stronger than Gold

GDX – Miners seem weaker and especially when I looked at some silver stocks like PAAS, SSRI, MVG, SVM etc are almost back to recent lows. Silver pulled back only 38 to 50% , miners are lower than 68% , so they need a bounce now. Futures are up pre-market and I will be watching for signs of strength or just a bounce. 

Note / Lesson:

I just looked and as I write GOLD has surged $10 as I write.   I know that is exciting, especially when I just showed GOLD on a trend-line & it bounces now, but please use charts when you observe market movement.    Scroll back up to that chart and look at what yesterdays high was in Gold .  What is price now after the $10 surge?   THAT is how we shake off emotions  (  The excitement that make us possibly think…  “Hey, Gold  surged $10 and is running away without me”).  It is at yesterdays highs so far…

For investors-  it needs further watching .  For TRADERS-   you  can play this in whatever suits your style. 

My thinking is this:   IF we run higher and break to new highs, this is an A-B-C up from the recent lows after a healthy pullback.  Traders can scalp that break out,  others can wait for the next pullback and possibly load up .   If we have an ICL ahead of us,  this bounce is merely setting up a ‘ short’ for traders. A great buying opportunity will be shortly ahead of us .

Now with all of that said,  I have to say that so far, the move in GOLD looks like it does want to run higher to former highs.  The break above the red horizontal line is short term bullish and remains short term bullish above that.  Traders can trade this set up as they see fit in metals or miners. 

GOLDS 5 minute chart may bull flag, you can keep an eye on that as it wears off overbought positions.

Those are the markets for now , I think they need further watching.  Is the SPX breaking below the wedge now?   Will it close there?   Gold /  Miners do look ready to run, but Miners sold off for days, so it is expected. A GAP open is almost a sure thing – but how many times have you seen GAPS close later?  Often, so I want to watch how this plays out too.  Traders will likely trade this move.  I wish you the best and be careful in Choppy mkts,  there is always another trade.  Especially if GOLD just put in a higher low from the Nov lows,  that would hint at LOWS for Gold being in and an uptrend starting.   That would be different in a good way.   SO THAT is why I was saying that in the big picture commodities may rise  – OIL, NATGAS, CORN,WHEAT, GOLD, MINERS, and the SPX, NASDAQ, DJIA,  may swoon lower.  It will take time for the Bigger Picture to play out , so we keep in mind that ……Patience is also a successful strategy  : )

~Alex