Archive for year: 2014
FED MTG TODAY
In the past I have found that either on Fed Wednesday or Follow Through Thursday much of the analysis, whether it's using cycles, Tech Analysis, Fundamentals, etc - is both correct for a short time, then wrong for a short time, then correct again, then wrong again, and then the true direction that is going to hold finally seems to take hold. So for today ....
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REVERSALS EVERYWHERE- WILL THEY HOLD
Today is a day full of reversals. The question is , with the FED MEETING tomorrow , will they stick?
Some like OIL & ENERGY seem to have been put in with conviction, if they close here.
Sure- some of the energy stocks are up 15 – 20 % , but in recent days they’ve giving false signals . Oversold POPS and 1 hit wonders. For example we have :
EXXI
SFY
So is there a way to know if the lows are really in for energy ? Cycles are giving a strong clue and a few other areas may help us to identify the answer to that. I just posted a premium report discussing the possibilities in ENERGY.
I had posted this chart on DEC 10 of a target for the pullback that I expected in the markets.
Today we are there with a reversal.
The question is…With the FED MTG tomorrow is it safe to assume that this reversal will hold?
We did do a reversal before in the QQQ in Sept / Oct and in similar fashion, but it failed into a sell off. In fact, the Q’s are selling down again now (See below) .
And the VIX is looking kind of strong
And of course, lets not forget about our GOLD & MINERS . They are also reversing ( repeatedly) , whats going on there? I have been tracking that closely since Early Nov too. It has had curve balls and surprises too, so should we be concerned? Will Gold rally or will the FED kill it? Is it still acting correctly since making lows in Early November ? Or do signs of weakness show that it’s about to fall apart on FED DAY? Again, I am covering that in the premium section under the “Strategies” tab. Things are rocking & rolling, and even the reversals keep reversing. These are , for sure, tricky markets. The FED MTG is tomorrow and things may get a little clearer after that.
I will post here from time to time, but I have to be fair to those paying members and keep some of the information set aside for premium content. If you’re not already a member , I invite you to try a 1 month membership and see if the market analysis in the premium reports can help you to at least see the markets in a different light. Maybe navigate them a little better. It’s Less than the cost of a cup of coffee/day (Well, Mc Donalds may have me beat there) 
. Thanks for reading along.
~ALEX
ENERGY THOUGHTS
I noticed something of interest in ENERGY today and wanted to try to post here
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GOLD DID NOT ‘FAIL’
Gold started to dip down, rather fast yesterday, but please dont misunderstand. GOLD did not 'fail' in our expectations. It is getting a little whip-saw action pre-Fed, but it hasnt done an epic fail like out friend above. Let me explain.
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Weekend Update
Another week has come and gone, lets do a review and see what it may tell us we might expect going into the next week of trading.
That was a fast week of selling in the $SPX , wasn't it? : )
I had pointed out the first area of support last week and we already arrived there Friday...
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The Forest or The Trees?
Have you ever heard the expression " Cant see the Forest through the Trees" or "Cant see the Forest For the Trees" ? Its about being so focused on 1 Tree ( Or 1 idea) that you cant see the big picture, the Forest . Its important for investors to see all things big and small , because it can affect the outcome along the way.
For example, we may see a nice set up in a stock. EBAY looks to be breaking out
EBAY just might be breaking out & take off from here, but stepping back and looking at the bigger picture helps us to see if we should be buying / waiting / or what?
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The larger View
The Big Picture . Its important to your investing to know what you're looking at, each piece big and Small together. Why? Sometimes it can help us to be patient and wait for the best trade set ups, other times it gives us confidence that our trade ideas will have positive follow through or minimal downside risk. Both are important as we watch the movement in the markets unfold. Well, Today is Friday and not a whole lot has changed from the report yesterday, so I want to do a quick review and after today we can do a weekend report that may shed even more light on things.
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