Did you say a “Core” position?
Nov 13, 2014
Not a lot to say today- I got about 80 replies to the recent request for input on a better designed website. I tried to reply to each and every one. I THINK I may have accidentally permanently deleted one of them, if you didn’t hear back from me, I apologize- I DID read it before that happened. You can even resend it and I’ll get back to you, but I spent a good deal of time replying and thanking everyone for such positive feedback. Pat yourselves on the back, what a Kind group of people are reading here!
AUDIO LINK HERE click here
Now..A CORE? I had a couple people ask me why I dont discuss my “Core” holdings vs trades. I will when I have some, but until things start trending, I cut the core! Maybe some ENERGY or COAL stocks are a little more BUY & HOLD at this time. Some have begun trending. And since the COAL lows, earnings were released late OCT- it would seem that any bad news is baked in and upside seems to be steady (Above the moving averages. Lets take a quick look…
BTU – recommended yesterday at 10 A.M.
1 .5 Hrs later
Also …
The other Coal stocks mentioned reversed right after my post and look set up for another leg up
ANR reversed right after I posted too…it is still sitting there, still a buy . You can keep “Stops” just below the moving averages
ANR now
SO there are still nice trade set ups out there in COAL/ENERGY/ look for Uraniums on the pullback ? and Tech too. What about this GOLD/Miners thing??
I want to show You NATGAS
Read the chart – What I also wanted to say is that MIners arent Rocketing as expected, so should I KEEP holding my positions bought at lows? Maybe not. The money is up 1day , down the next, Up day 3 , down day 4…and its not always helpful to sit in a sideways position. To that point look at Dec lows…and imagine Buying a heavy position in early Dec.
Sideways action for 5,10,15 trading days? Especially if you are in a 3xETF with decay factors could be less beneficial than taking a position in say BTU. THEN, when GOLD / Miners finally start to move, maybe even trend , a position can be taken.
Looking at DEC lows, another scenario came to mind. See the BLUE ARROWS pointing out the lows, and then a slight break (new lows) and then 5 days and ANOTHER slight break…THEN lows were in? Going short or long here was difficult (I did it, I remember well). So staring at that chart, I said…“Could current lows actually break to new slight lows? Shake me out and frustrate us?” – Yes…see below using the current cycle count (1 cycle runs roughly 1 month of trading lets say)
Cycle count 1 – (23 days from low to low )This would show that the low is in…but IF LIKE DECEMBER 2013, we slightly broke down..you’d get the other chart below it
Gold cycle 2 (Another quick dip would extend the cycle to still a normal 31 day count). We might get stopped out & some would grab Dust and go short ,frustration, etc -like DEC 2013
SO what am I saying? MAYBE it would be prudent to take profit in at least SOME of the position if one has one, until this daily cycle plays out. I got in at The Lows because of the idea that it could fly straight up like $NATGAS in a short covering frenzy. It would be hard to enter a straight up move, it was too hard to buy Natgas day after day watching it run up.
Since its not playing out as a short cover rally, maybe the money could be better used elsewhere (for now)?
Conclusion: I still see this as likely THE LOWS in Gold- and I see signs that it is stealth-fully playing out ( more on that in a moment) …But remembering what I saw the DEC 2013 lows with that final dip completing a cycle count is frustrating. Also I caught the lows in GOLD OCT 6 with Gold , and it was, but Miners didnt respond. Frustrating. I just wonder if we are eating up time waiting for the run up while money could be increased in another area ?
Before that above decision is made by everyone (please decide for yourself ) What signs did I mean I see when I say that I am encouraged that this is likely stealth lows? The charts
below. Often “miners lead” the move up. At the OCT 6 lows in Gold, they struggled…
SLW
RGLD
FSM
As I write…Gold is green, but every other day its green, every other day its red. Its not the time to be jumping in and out of NUGT / DUST / NUGT / DUST I.M.O. I’ve seen people have better luck timing the juggling of chainsaws, nd its less bloody. Yes, I currently have a position that I bought last week on 2 separate days. I was expecting THE LOWS, and wanted to get into position in case we had a NATGAS like short covering rally. We have not had that, instead we are getting a lingering bottom. That was fine at MAY 2014 lows, but not so fun in the DEC 2013 lows…so I wanted to present this side in case YOU have a position. Is it small? You can likely hold and see what happens…add if we rally above the 10 & 20sma . Is it large position? Maybe consider deploying cash in another trending area until MIners become a little clearer? The choice is yours, but I just wanted to pass this info on, to help you think of a few different scenarios.
Best wishes to all and thanks for being here (And all the kind compliments in the feedback emails). Much appreciated!
~ALEX
Certainly not the time to bump around dust, ngut. Gold or miners if you are trading as that can wipe off your capital. I would say, if ya an investor, buy gold or strong miners and lock them up for a while.
Yes, a few of the Miners are actually acting well and if you get a decent entry on a pullback…you can get out with minimal losses if they fall in the near future. Lows are always tricky…they NEVER make it easy ! Best 2U Matthew
Hi Alex. I know most of your work is mainly focused on PMs and other commodities. Can you cover S&P when you get a chance? Can’t help it, that is where money is being made at this time. Thanks
Sure Kriz- check back here in the comments section in 5 minutes for a chart
It looks to me like volume (Buyers) is drying up on the rise & usually leads to a pause or pullback (to moving averages) unless we get a sudden burst of volume. Also RSI shows strength at highs has lessened . For now, th trend is definitely UP , and the rise from that sell off has been non -stop. They are weekly charts, so could pause next week or so.
The charts and your comments were all very helpful. Thank you Alex!!
Certainly not the time to bump around dust, ngut. Gold or miners if you are trading as that can wipe off your capital. I would say, if ya an investor, buy gold or strong miners and lock them up for a while.
Yes, a few of the Miners are actually acting well and if you get a decent entry on a pullback…you can get out with minimal losses if they fall in the near future. Lows are always tricky…they NEVER make it easy ! Best 2U Matthew
Hi Alex. I know most of your work is mainly focused on PMs and other commodities. Can you cover S&P when you get a chance? Can’t help it, that is where money is being made at this time. Thanks
Sure Kriz- check back here in the comments section in 5 minutes for a chart
It looks to me like volume (Buyers) is drying up on the rise & usually leads to a pause or pullback (to moving averages) unless we get a sudden burst of volume. Also RSI shows strength at highs has lessened . For now, th trend is definitely UP , and the rise from that sell off has been non -stop. They are weekly charts, so could pause next week or so.
The charts and your comments were all very helpful. Thank you Alex!!
Hi Alex, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I think your description of the miners as one day up and one day down is representative in Elliot wave theory as wave 1 up wave 2 down and then the start of wave 3 up would be a minor wave 1 up and then a minor wave 2 up before we finally get a minor wave 3 or stronger wave. For now (GDXJ) we would only have a wave 1 up from 22.34 to 26.2. Just based off that information we could project wave 2 to correct 62% to 23.79 for wave 2 (23.66 actual) then we would project 1.62 times wave 1 to get a target of 30 for the end of wave 3. It would then project a wave 4 down to 27.68 and then a final wave 5 up at 31.56 or the overall potential of a 41% gain from the 22.34 start of wave 1.
If we break down wave 3 to 5 minor waves it would be:
minor wave 1 of 3 : 26.43 (26.74 actual)
minor wave 2 of 3: 24.79 (24.77 actual)
minor wave 3 of 3: 29.07
minor wave 4 of 3: 27.43
minor wave 5 of 3: 30.07
Of course, now that I put these numbers out it will fail miserably!
So to me it just looks like a series of 1 and 2 waves until we finally get into some wave 3 where the action should pickup!
Unless we break to slightly new lows like last Dec , right?
And yes, wave 3 is where the action is, but when it came to NATGAS …it was just straight up from lows in a short cover rally. That is what I thought we might get here with so many shorts, so my thinking is…if your money can serve you better elsewhere- you may want to lighten up.
Thanks for doing the extra math
Hi Alex, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I think your description of the miners as one day up and one day down is representative in Elliot wave theory as wave 1 up wave 2 down and then the start of wave 3 up would be a minor wave 1 up and then a minor wave 2 up before we finally get a minor wave 3 or stronger wave. For now (GDXJ) we would only have a wave 1 up from 22.34 to 26.2. Just based off that information we could project wave 2 to correct 62% to 23.79 for wave 2 (23.66 actual) then we would project 1.62 times wave 1 to get a target of 30 for the end of wave 3. It would then project a wave 4 down to 27.68 and then a final wave 5 up at 31.56 or the overall potential of a 41% gain from the 22.34 start of wave 1.
If we break down wave 3 to 5 minor waves it would be:
minor wave 1 of 3 : 26.43 (26.74 actual)
minor wave 2 of 3: 24.79 (24.77 actual)
minor wave 3 of 3: 29.07
minor wave 4 of 3: 27.43
minor wave 5 of 3: 30.07
Of course, now that I put these numbers out it will fail miserably!
So to me it just looks like a series of 1 and 2 waves until we finally get into some wave 3 where the action should pickup!
Unless we break to slightly new lows like last Dec , right?
And yes, wave 3 is where the action is, but when it came to NATGAS …it was just straight up from lows in a short cover rally. That is what I thought we might get here with so many shorts, so my thinking is…if your money can serve you better elsewhere- you may want to lighten up.
Thanks for doing the extra math