UPDATE
Sunday Sept 28 I dont know what it is… it’s either when I write about the Gold/ Silver/ Metals market or maybe its whenever I write something that is contrary to what the crowd is thinking, but after one of those two ideas is presented, I get a lot of feedback ( and I love it! ). I got a good number of comments below the previous article for the public to see, but also many write to me by email and share thoughts or ask questions too. It was really a lot of good constructive feedback, so thank you! I’ve decided to do a follow up to Thursdays report that I posted Friday morning and I’ve dug into more charts to explain what I am seeing. Some of it basic and some of it a bit deeper.
To start with, lets I review what was happening on May 30 2014. Gold had recently broken down from a “Continuation triangle” the ‘measured’ target was $50 lower, but most felt $1180 would be broken, maybe $1150 or worse would get tagged. EVERYWHERE I looked , articles were talking about “SEASONALITY” in Gold being Late July & AUG . THATS when “we should buy the bottom” , they were saying…the LOWS would be in then. I wrote an article saying that it might be time to buy now (I had entered JNUG & NUGT and few select Miners). That article is here if you want to read it. http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/05/31/learning-to-be-patient/
It Seemed that everyone was or wanted to go short- or just hated the metals all together.
As a quick review, the charts I used went like this MAY 2014- Triangle price projection near $1200, seasonal lows in Jul/AUG
I had noticed some very interesting things happening with Miners and even the Metals charts themselves, SO I posted this Next chart below as a contrary idea , one that would leave everyone waiting for “Seasonal Summer Lows” behind …
This is a clip from that report- and this is exactly what happened.
I really wrote this because I was seeing a few things ( and some buy signals) that indicated a change could happen sooner than most think. Miners then took off and no one wanted to “CHASE” it, so they waited for a pullback (That never really came) Some even tried “Shorting ” this “Bounce” daily. Miners ran to Highs in JULY and they started to rise so fast & sharply that JNUG went from $13 to $30 in 3 weeks, and peaked at $36 in JULY. Some made huge money, others totally missed it due to Fear or a Bias. Heres another interesting point….SEASONALITY AND SUMMER LOWS then became the sell off period right down to today.
Fast Forward to today. Now we have a “Continuation Triangle break down” in SILVER. People have targets of $13 or $10, many are short , others HATE THOSE STUPID METALS & MINERS FOREVER. (Thats Good). Please understand that we “MAY” still hit Silver $13, I’m NOT saying its wrong to think so, but what I am saying is that The GOLD Triangle break was a false break down looking back. It didnt reach its target. Fake outs in the market happen. Additionally, What I saw in May 2014, and DEC 2013 and JUNE 2013 at those MEANINGFUL LOWS – is similar to what I see now. I dont like to follow the crowd (Unless its an established trend, then we use “Timing” to try to enter and exit at key levels) but it’s more than just a contrary thought. I see evidence of a low approaching, or a bounce as mentioned in Fridays report. (Here) http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/09/26/illusion/#more-1464
The point of todays article is to also show you the other side of what I wrote in my last post and answer some of your questions.
1. IS IT POSSIBLE that these arent THE next meaningful LOWS?
2. Possible that it’s Not an ICL for those followers that view it in Cycle terms?
3. Could we just bounce & drop again?
Sure…thats what I want to point out here. Lets just examine more of the facts, in addition to Fridays report, and allow the markets to tell the story.
Starting with the C.O.T. , it tells us 2 things. 1. We are now at the same level as it was in MAY, and we know we got a strong Bounce / Rally. 2. It is NOT as low as it was in Dec 2013 (Click to enlarge) , but does that matter? Maybe not, since we rallied in May at these levels.
Elliot Wave technicians like to see things in 1-2-3-4-5 step move to feel that it has completed. I agree, I see it ALOT of the time. I even look for it often. Here is an example easy to see with the EURO.
GDX – Cant see the 5 waves really – so bounce and another small drop? Maybe.
But what if I wait for that wave 5 , And it’s already there? Honestly, I COULDN’T see 5 waves up on the May to July leg up either (But now I can label it so- see chart below ), and its easier to see with B.B.’s – so I also guess I can label the recent drop 5 waves down if I have to. E.W. is not always crystal clear until after it plays out…I NEVER use it alone to project price, or as seen in the 2 charts above , it can be too tough to enter the trade . So to me, it’s not crystal clear right here with E.W. if the 5 waves are complete, but 5 waves MIGHT already be in.
So at this point, to answer my Elliott Wave wave followers, I’d have to look to additional signs for more clues, such as some of the things mentioned in my last report.
I want to address something else I noticed while looking at charts Saturday morning ,
and that is “Timing”.
“Timing” between those Meaningful lows (ICL’s) has averaged lately about 6 months. We are short here. It HAS happening in the past that they’ve come closer together than 6 months, so for now I can dismiss it…however its a valid point to keep in mind when the question comes up, “Is it possible that we just bounce now and put in the ICL (meaningful solid lows) later?
The chart below shows 6 months, 6 months, 4 months (Bounce like last October for 2 weeks & another drop? Or RALLY and leave many behind?) We’ll see.
That “BOUNCE” last October (what a coincidence, its October next week) was an oversold bounce that lasted 2 weeks & rolled over. I point out the similarities here of breaking to new lows (Stop run) , Full stochastics deeply over cooked, etc etc . The RSI is as deeply overdone as the prior ICL’s however, thats interesting to me. As mentioned in my last report, I got an RSI(2) Buy signal too, and I usually only get those at ICL’s
In JULY Gold was looking like it could drop again just be trend line worthy. I did the 6 month, 6 month, 6 month thinking when I drew this. We have dropped since this was taken and its close to that line now. Could be good enough.
Now my last GDX chart is not for the fainthearted. Sometimes I really like to look into things. I like to dig deeper. Some of my charts are probably too cluttered with ‘thoughts & ideas’ to post here…and this one may be too. If you dont like “Cluttered Charts” , then feel free to stop here, your report ends here 
. In summary , I hope it was helpful and it basically shows that I believe my Friday post , we are at some sort of lows…however we COULD bounce & go a bit deeper. That we can watch as things progress. Many things currently match prior lows. Thanks for reading along, I appreciate it.
Now- If you like digging in, or you want to see something else that I was looking into, and try to follow along, then this will be our last chart .
I wanted to use a ‘cycle circle ‘ tool and see again the ‘timing’ of prior lows. BELOW the chart – I will try to step by step it, to make it easier to understand.
1. Orange X’s along the bottom of the cycle circle chart are about 6 months apart & have often hit Meaningful lows. Dec 2012 was a miss in the Liquid Sell Off, but most others are a match.
2. THEN- along the top of the cycle circles at roughly 1 o’clock are a row of purple X’s – they too hit minor ‘lows’. It was then that the 2013 October rally fell into place, and it is also roughly now.
DOES that indicate that we will just get the 1 o’clock bounce and then later the ICL? Maybe. You may notice that the 1 o’clock X for March 2014 failed. It was too Weak & No low presented itself, so its good to know that its not perfect every time, but you see how often it has been. SINCE we are currently at the 1 o’clock point, a Low of some sort is ‘likely’ and it may just be like the markets to’ ICL’ it early & leave us chasing. After all, the MAY LOWS were not supposed to be until Seasonality lows in JULY….IT WAS 2 MONTHS EARLY.
So Will the lows due in Dec of the Cycle Circle wave hit 2 months early as a result? 
No one knows at this point.
Lets just try to allow the markets to tell us what they want to do. We’ll try to listen carefully, without any bias. ‘Summer lows’ and ‘Seasonality’ were off this year, 2 months early. I like where we are right now, and its a good time to listen to what the markets are trying to say. Maybe re-read Fridays report if you have time (I did this morning) and draw your own conclusions. Most people HATE GOLD & SILVER now…yet some of the Miners are ‘firming up’ nicely ( Fridays report) . I dont know what the next 1 or 2 days will do. I posted Friday A.M., and Gold didnt rocket out of there…No Biggie…Nothing has changed yet. The may lows were sideways for a few days too.
Thanks for tuning in and the feedback was helpful for me to know what some of you were wondering. Elliott Wave, Cycles, etc etc – it all weighs in at times. If you want to comment in the comment section, Its helpful because maybe you are asking what others wonder too. Everyone benefits. I’ll read it when I’m at my laptop & reply as soon as possible, usually same day (I hate using my phone for lengthy writing, etc ). Some have mentioned that they cant post comments in a public forum by request of their employer...I Totally understand. I try to answer all emails as quickly as reasonably possible too.
Thanks again for reading along, I hope it is helpful!
Click Here – Never miss a FREAK SETUP again, delivered to your inbox, free!.
~Alex
P.S. The Gold Market is not open yet as I post this, who knows what tomorrow will bring, but I have 1 more set of charts that I will post IF / WHEN Gold blasts out of these lows : )
I’ve had No feedback on this observation in the past, yet every DCL since aug,13 the miners preceeded POG out, (up) by 1-3 days. I called it my Xmas rally in 13, I then noticed POG may have moved closer sync with the miners in world currency terms. May be similar reflection att, not because miners are moving but because they are holding up despite dropping gold?
btw Thanks for large weekend effort this post. I’m certain I’m not the only one missing your PM input this last 2 months.
Also, I wanted to add couple things, Assuming POG Is in a bottoming process. we have incredible reverse symmetry since June, begging a compliment. Comparing this last 2 yearsrelative moves in $USD, POG has held up Incredibly to this exceptionally strong $USD. And lastly whereas POG has been down 4 days straight , GDX has been down only 2 of those 4 days. So We’ll see on monday or tuesday… Wouldn’t hurt to have POG drop to 1209 this morning.
I understand the “missing the P.M. input’. I didnt think that metals or Miners were acting correctly, so it was more of a JDST , DUST, short gold silver type move. With that outlook, I just decided to cover some of the other market set ups like JRJC, HGSG, etc. I appreciate your reading along. I could have taken a look if someone had asked “What do I see with GDX currently”, but no one asked , so I thought everyone was also just patiently waiting for a set up.
And yes, The dollar chart goes STRAIGHT UP, and the Miners have not been Slammed like they usually have in the past. And yes, I also noticed Moiners bottom first often when a reversal is close.
We’ll see what this week has to bring in P.M.’s , that break down from the Gold triangle and the Silver bottom has most fearing the worst … and not many (If any) care to buy , thinking we have MUCH lower to go. We may have much more to go, I just see a bounce somewhere soon. Best to U!
I’ve had No feedback on this observation in the past, yet every DCL since aug,13 the miners preceeded POG out, (up) by 1-3 days. I called it my Xmas rally in 13, I then noticed POG may have moved closer sync with the miners in world currency terms. May be similar reflection att, not because miners are moving but because they are holding up despite dropping gold?
btw Thanks for large weekend effort this post. I’m certain I’m not the only one missing your PM input this last 2 months.
Also, I wanted to add couple things, Assuming POG Is in a bottoming process. we have incredible reverse symmetry since June, begging a compliment. Comparing this last 2 yearsrelative moves in $USD, POG has held up Incredibly to this exceptionally strong $USD. And lastly whereas POG has been down 4 days straight , GDX has been down only 2 of those 4 days. So We’ll see on monday or tuesday… Wouldn’t hurt to have POG drop to 1209 this morning.
I understand the “missing the P.M. input’. I didnt think that metals or Miners were acting correctly, so it was more of a JDST , DUST, short gold silver type move. With that outlook, I just decided to cover some of the other market set ups like JRJC, HGSG, etc. I appreciate your reading along. I could have taken a look if someone had asked “What do I see with GDX currently”, but no one asked , so I thought everyone was also just patiently waiting for a set up.
And yes, The dollar chart goes STRAIGHT UP, and the Miners have not been Slammed like they usually have in the past. And yes, I also noticed Moiners bottom first often when a reversal is close.
We’ll see what this week has to bring in P.M.’s , that break down from the Gold triangle and the Silver bottom has most fearing the worst … and not many (If any) care to buy , thinking we have MUCH lower to go. We may have much more to go, I just see a bounce somewhere soon. Best to U!
Alex, just popping in here to say how much I like your analysis and your
style of presentation. You seem very personable and lack the sort of
runaway ego that is difficult for a reader to take. The markets are
tough and predicting what will be coming next is little more than a
crapshoot – but it’s that “little more” that can make all the difference
in the world. You seem to have what it takes to make the odds 60:40 in
favor, rather than the coin flip 50:50. I also like that you have
largely reduced the many different text colors/sizes you had used in
your posts in the Bull & Bear forums; I found it too stroboscopic to
read and had to skip many – meanwhile missing out on your excellent
work. Good luck and best wishes going forward.
Hey Michael, thanks for that, I appreciate it. And I agree, I’ve read others work where the big ego is there and usually the market gives them a good slap every now & then to try to humble them : )
The markets are humbling, and no one gets it right all the time, but you’re right , sometimes we can get an edge through hard work and good info or observations.
Thanks again ( If you write again, let me know what your name was at B.B.?)
Alex, just popping in here to say how much I like your analysis and your
style of presentation. You seem very personable and lack the sort of
runaway ego that is difficult for a reader to take. The markets are
tough and predicting what will be coming next is little more than a
crapshoot – but it’s that “little more” that can make all the difference
in the world. You seem to have what it takes to make the odds 60:40 in
favor, rather than the coin flip 50:50. I also like that you have
largely reduced the many different text colors/sizes you had used in
your posts in the Bull & Bear forums; I found it too stroboscopic to
read and had to skip many – meanwhile missing out on your excellent
work. Good luck and best wishes going forward.
Hey Michael, thanks for that, I appreciate it. And I agree, I’ve read others work where the big ego is there and usually the market gives them a good slap every now & then to try to humble them : )
The markets are humbling, and no one gets it right all the time, but you’re right , sometimes we can get an edge through hard work and good info or observations.
Thanks again ( If you write again, let me know what your name was at B.B.?)
Is it my imagination, or does the sentiment during this round of lower PM prices seem much worse than the previous low period ? The articles being posted, the forum discussions, most all the of the posted TA seems to forecast a terribly dreadful future. (Maybe I’m just feeling worse about my longs this time?) I know sentiment has been awful during the previous pullbacks but this time it seems much worse. One reason touted is the increasing strength of the USD which most seem to think will continue to be unstoppable.
Any ideas about what is being reported as massively high open interest in silver?
Hi Jim,
You are correct, Sentiment is one of dread. Those are the types of conditions that spur bounces or rallies. It is as bad as it has been at prior lows. It CAN get worse, but eventually selling has to exhaust itself as most sellers are already out and then the shorts need to cover. When they start covering & an short covering rally finally takes hold, buyers also tend to jump in to try to make some quick gains.
As for Silvers high open Interest, I haven’t had time to look into it, so I cant comment intelligently at this point , sorry : )
Thanks for stopping by
Is it my imagination, or does the sentiment during this round of lower PM prices seem much worse than the previous low period ? The articles being posted, the forum discussions, most all the of the posted TA seems to forecast a terribly dreadful future. (Maybe I’m just feeling worse about my longs this time?) I know sentiment has been awful during the previous pullbacks but this time it seems much worse. One reason touted is the increasing strength of the USD which most seem to think will continue to be unstoppable.
Any ideas about what is being reported as massively high open interest in silver?
Hi Jim,
You are correct, Sentiment is one of dread. Those are the types of conditions that spur bounces or rallies. It is as bad as it has been at prior lows. It CAN get worse, but eventually selling has to exhaust itself as most sellers are already out and then the shorts need to cover. When they start covering & an short covering rally finally takes hold, buyers also tend to jump in to try to make some quick gains.
As for Silvers high open Interest, I haven’t had time to look into it, so I cant comment intelligently at this point , sorry : )
Thanks for stopping by
Thanks Alex,
I really do enjoy your perspective and ability to spot so many rather subtle changes and indications on a chart that I would easily miss.
Every post one of your analysis is very sensibly instructive.
My 2 cent about OI~
Apparently an interview revealed that Harvey Organ is sure a massive run on disappearing silver is close at hand. One of the statistics mentioned on the ensuing member “comment thread,” noted the current open interest in silver at being at an unusually massive 240,000; (comparatively in 2005 OI was 140,000.)
–I am thinking unusually high open interest occurring in an established downtrend is bearish.
The next question would be, should we be seeing silver as being in a “long term” uptrend or an “intermediate term” down trend (with regard to open interest.) Since both views, depending on time frame are can be descriptive of what is happening– it seems there is no clear answer.
I’m thinking- – – -For folks believing in and promoting the Bullish view will look at silver as being in a powerful yearly “long term uptrend,” with a potential upward explosion being “telegraphed” by huge OI.
Those promoting a bearish outcome will seize on the weekly “intermediate downtrend” as being a change in direction with the huge OI adding fuel to the bearish fire.
While I’m bullish silver at heart (and in position,) I’m rather agnostic about the OI situation as we can not be absolutely sure if we are simply in a painful (for some) uptrend “correction” or the beginning of a new and horrific downtrend, potentially suggested by the massive OI.
Just some thoughts~
I do feel we are overdone on the downside at least on a short term basis.
GLTA
Thanks Alex,
I really do enjoy your perspective and ability to spot so many rather subtle changes and indications on a chart that I would easily miss.
Every post one of your analysis is very sensibly instructive.
My 2 cent about OI~
Apparently an interview revealed that Harvey Organ is sure a massive run on disappearing silver is close at hand. One of the statistics mentioned on the ensuing member “comment thread,” noted the current open interest in silver at being at an unusually massive 240,000; (comparatively in 2005 OI was 140,000.)
–I am thinking unusually high open interest occurring in an established downtrend is bearish.
The next question would be, should we be seeing silver as being in a “long term” uptrend or an “intermediate term” down trend (with regard to open interest.) Since both views, depending on time frame are can be descriptive of what is happening– it seems there is no clear answer.
I’m thinking- – – -For folks believing in and promoting the Bullish view will look at silver as being in a powerful yearly “long term uptrend,” with a potential upward explosion being “telegraphed” by huge OI.
Those promoting a bearish outcome will seize on the weekly “intermediate downtrend” as being a change in direction with the huge OI adding fuel to the bearish fire.
While I’m bullish silver at heart (and in position,) I’m rather agnostic about the OI situation as we can not be absolutely sure if we are simply in a painful (for some) uptrend “correction” or the beginning of a new and horrific downtrend, potentially suggested by the massive OI.
Just some thoughts~
I do feel we are overdone on the downside at least on a short term basis.
GLTA