REFLECTIONS
WEEKEND UPDATE SEPT 13, 2014 I wanted to just go back over the ideas / trades that I have been posting in the past few weeks. Most have had great success really, some obviously more than others, (Yes a few failed & broke down , namely WEAT, CORN, DBA & GDXJ but we weren’t buying those yet until they proved themselves- and they tanked). By examining past trades & thinking, and re-examining what the “Set up” was that lead to those gains, we benefit. How? As I wrote in the last 2 reports entitled ‘GIANTS AMONG US’ and ‘TRADERS PARADISE’ – these set ups are still forming and even trades already mentioned and future ones that I will point out are still valid. The “traders Paradise” does not appear to be over. I have gone over tons of charts this a.m. and I know in advance that this will be my longest report to date, so I am going to try to be ‘brief in words’ and ‘long in charts’. Feel free to ask questions in the ‘comments’ section if my brevity leaves out something you need to know. SO LETS REVIEW…To The Charts!!!
I got a Tweet asking , Why didn’t you cover Gold stocks in UR last report...
Here is why , I last posted this in August …
Did it Fail at the “Test” of the 50sma as mentioned? Yes…
I also pointed out that GOLD HAD WORK TO DO…It was at strong overhead resistance & MUST push thru…it failed,so it meant just buy GLL , or DUST or JDST or Stay away . I believe a very trade-able low will come in very soon or Oct.
DBA was “DO OR DIE”, break out from a descending wedge. It dropped, BUT is currently still inside, actually resting on the bottom of that wedge at $25.50. (Still valid so far)
KNDI MAY NOW BE A BUY
I had traded KNDI and showed KNDI looked bearish-
Chart 1 in early Sept (Loose, sloppy & MACD weak, broke below a wide triangle)
2nd chart showed that KNDI WEEKLY usually drops to the 34 wma, and a GAP was there, so caution.
Notice on the ABOVE chart I had written that KNDI often falls to the 34 Weekly MA. It MAY be a BUY here on that reversal.
AUG 29 – Bought the “RALY” Gap open near $11 , Island Bottom?
RALY- is STILL A VALID SET UP, but I sold (For now-weak volume). If this breaks upward, potential is still great.
I posted that SCOK Bottomed, great volume- strong , so I thought we’d see a bull flag. Missed this one Big Time!! It became a “GIANT”
Recommended CGA buy on the dips, I had already entered when It broke the 50sma & now saw GREAT VOLUME as it broke from Downtrend CHANNEL.
Might tag that trend-line? but I posted a Daily chart (2nd chart below) & showed possible targets to enter / add like 10SMA.
Daily, buy near $2.30, $2.25…Very light volume pull back. Could also drop to 50sma or 20sma
Today CGA – became one of the “GIANTS AMONG US”
Bought RENN on Earnings as volume came in & posted , Nice Base.
Its been a little sideways, seems like its been forever : ) but still has bullish signs, Looked like another “Buy” W/ Fridays reversal
SOLARS ARE PERKING UP & COULD BE GREAT TRADES, here are a few examples as I noticed that they began breaking out.
SOL, Sept 8 – breaks out & rests on support near $3.30 area
Today – Sol already $3.55
YGE – perking up, many other solars look great ( you can add CSUN, CSIQ, SCTY, FSLR , TSL, JKS, JASO to your watchlist )
VMEM – Posted this possible break out coming….Bought it as it broke from this with increased volume.
Posted that I Sold it here, got bored ( As you will see….It fooled me!)
Look at it now! VMEM fooled me & POPPED almost $1 higher , and now is looking quite interesting
CMGE – Strong move from $12.50 to $20 area, was at $18.34 & but it had strong earnings reported. MACD crossing up, looks good Strong volume buying!
Keep an eye on the ones with strong earnings and proper set ups, they do rally nicely. It actually went from $12.50 to $30!
It has now pulled back to lower $20’s and may be a buy again
!
CMGE approaching a Buy Area? (This just dropped from $30 to $22, not for the faint of heart)
When I wrote my last report ( If you haven’t read it , you’ll need to to fully understand what I am talking about) I discussed the Growth of Giants in our playing field.
We were on the look out for more after addressing the question , “Where do they come from?” We caught OTIV and CGA if you followed my posts (CGA was a tad tougher, because it did have a ‘shake out move at the 50sma before exploding). And if you began stalking your own “proper set ups”, maybe you even caught some more? They have still been popping up among us. I was able to catch small pieces of NETE & PULS from my watchlist and again, there may be more , so lets review a few of these. Also I mentioned buying VIMC and if you followed me by adding at the 10sma, the move has been great. They had great earnings & although its extended on a daily, it is breaking out from a HUGE WKLY BASE that I have pointed out in my last report, so we’ll discuss that too. Lets just look at some newer GIANTS, shall we?
…To be Continued
I have decided that it would be best to take a break , for my sake & yours. This was a nice review, but a lot to absorb too. It is designed to show you that by using the charts and identifying various characteristics, you can trade successfully at least some of the time. NOTHING is 100% and I make calls that stop me out too (like WEAT & CORN & I just noticed that JVA failed Big Time last week. We did NOT take that trade, we will review it before I go though). As William ONeil has pointed out…if you can be patient , choose the right stocks and then let your good stocks run, while you cut your losses at reasonable levels (He goes no more than 10% below purchase price to allow for natural mkt moves. I do not usually go that low anymore. With a low risk entry, you can do better than that) you can do rather well. The theory works this way-
Take 5 trades and be wrong on 3 out of 5!
Gain 20% on the first, cut your losses at 5% on the 2nd & 3rd, the 4th you gain another 20%, the fifth you cut at 5% loss too.
You are wrong 3 out of 5 trades, but you are winning, because your “Gainers” out pace your “losers”.
Its a solid theory, but at times we do trade stocks that can DROP REALLY FAST and GAP DOWN at the open. Biotech and Pharma stocks have taught me that well : )
Before I go, lets review my call on JVA …It has failed along with a few of my other set ups.
Aug 22, JVA had burst through the 50sma with decent volume, MACD crossed up, Relative Strength was pretty – it was slowly trending higher with healthy pullbacks along the way.
This is a good looking chart, I still look at it and think it was recovering from a slam down. I mentioned a possible buy at the “Test” of the 50sma near $6.55
Well this is JVA now … It actually did go almost $1 higher from where I pointed it out, but it didnt reach the 50sma to buy it . Then it got rejected when Earnings came out & they dumped it
(Earnings were actually improving a lot, I dont get it, but dont disappoint Wall Street )
Ok, so I’m going to enjoy my Saturday and I will be back with Part 2 somewhere before the opening bell Monday.
Thanks for reading along & Have a great Weekend all!! 
ALEX
Thanks Alex! I appreciate your time in putting these reports together. I always study and learn much from them. Keep up the great work!
Tiger 5! Long time no see…great to hear from you and thanks for the encouragement
! I’m glad that they help you, and glad that you take the time to study
them too…thats how we get better. Thx again & Have a great
wkend
Thanks Alex! I appreciate your time in putting these reports together. I always study and learn much from them. Keep up the great work!
Tiger 5! Long time no see…great to hear from you and thanks for the encouragement
! I’m glad that they help you, and glad that you take the time to study
them too…thats how we get better. Thx again & Have a great
wkend
Great work and really appreciated. Fairly new following you and pleased to see you also follow Jesse Stein. I’m learning alot from both of you. I appreciate you acknowledging your losses, helps me analyze my own. Thanks again. Would be interested in your analysis of silver.
Hi Ric , Glad to have you reading along. I’ve read some of Jesse s material and I like it. I think we have many of the same “Mentors” because our styles are quite similar at times. He is sharp.
As for the Losses – Yes, we need to recognize them and learn from them. I dont always list them, but I often review them, and usually always have some. I try to find many good “Set ups”, but they dont all act as they appeared , so if its s set up that I “Entered” as a trade and I find myself in the red more than a normal MKT move- I have to lose the “I hope it comes back , I think it will ” idea, and just stick with, “Its not doing what I thought it would, so why should I expect that it will tomorrow?” If it turns up & looks healthy again, take another stab. (That actually happened to CGA in this report).
Silver- It has been average & tricky , Its looks close to Bottoming out…or falling off a cliff, right?
I will throw it in Part 2, o.k.?
Thx for stopping by & the kind words!
Great work and really appreciated. Fairly new following you and pleased to see you also follow Jesse Stein. I’m learning alot from both of you. I appreciate you acknowledging your losses, helps me analyze my own. Thanks again. Would be interested in your analysis of silver.
Hi Ric , Glad to have you reading along. I’ve read some of Jesse s material and I like it. I think we have many of the same “Mentors” because our styles are quite similar at times. He is sharp.
As for the Losses – Yes, we need to recognize them and learn from them. I dont always list them, but I often review them, and usually always have some. I try to find many good “Set ups”, but they dont all act as they appeared , so if its s set up that I “Entered” as a trade and I find myself in the red more than a normal MKT move- I have to lose the “I hope it comes back , I think it will ” idea, and just stick with, “Its not doing what I thought it would, so why should I expect that it will tomorrow?” If it turns up & looks healthy again, take another stab. (That actually happened to CGA in this report).
Silver- It has been average & tricky , Its looks close to Bottoming out…or falling off a cliff, right?
I will throw it in Part 2, o.k.?
Thx for stopping by & the kind words!
Alex I am very new here……you were recently intro’d by a sub at another site I subscribe to and am glad to have this technique knowledge come my way.
Thank you for acknowledging your losses in particular as they are important to learn from. I trade on the TSX primarily to stay away from the currency conversion fees so was wondering if you ever watch Canadian stocks?
Graham, Thank whoever refereed you here for me, and glad you stopped by : ) I mainly trade on the U.S. exchanged, but I’ve traded a lot of Miners on both. The thing is, if you want me to look at a chart and see what I think of the set up, I will gladly do that. Obviously if 10 readers asked me to look at 10 charts each, that’d be too time consuming, but I’ll gladly look up a few that others are interested in and see if another set of eyes (mine) helps.
Thank you also for the kind words!
Alex I am very new here……you were recently intro’d by a sub at another site I subscribe to and am glad to have this technique knowledge come my way.
Thank you for acknowledging your losses in particular as they are important to learn from. I trade on the TSX primarily to stay away from the currency conversion fees so was wondering if you ever watch Canadian stocks?
Graham, Thank whoever refereed you here for me, and glad you stopped by : ) I mainly trade on the U.S. exchanged, but I’ve traded a lot of Miners on both. The thing is, if you want me to look at a chart and see what I think of the set up, I will gladly do that. Obviously if 10 readers asked me to look at 10 charts each, that’d be too time consuming, but I’ll gladly look up a few that others are interested in and see if another set of eyes (mine) helps.
Thank you also for the kind words!