I’m looking at $NATGAS

MAY 23   $NATGAS

  I am looking at $NATGAS after its extremely bullish run up January & February.   Last week a friend of mine POLY  of The Financial Tap.com mentioned it as a possible short candidate a week ago, but I saw things a little differently . I was looking at $NATGAS close up & shared this chart,showing possible support & MACD divergence . Notice also, however, the 50sma overhead “Could” act as  possible resistance. I was obviously thinking it could be a “Long”.

I’ve said this many times…you cant argue with the markets, you must change with them if what you think you are seeing changes. Well POLY may have been early & correct in what he was seeing. Another friend of mine, Steve Chapman of The Refined Investor also noted NATGAS as a possible short  , so I re-visited the charts and low & behold I noticed that NATGAS was rejected at the 50sma  & the RSI 50% also turned down. (See the chart below, click to enlarge) .

This caused me to look closer & I bought DGAZ , and wanted to mention it because I think that DGAZ may still be a good buy here, or especially if $NATGAS attempts to break that 50sma again and fails.  You may want to put it on your watchlist. Here is DGAZ (I have had people say “You cant use T/A on a 3x etf — I have adapted certain areas of T/A for 3x ETFS , for example I find FIB projections dont work well, but other areas do SHORT TERM . So I have been able to used it effectively).

There were many other areas that I wanted to talk about , but these markets are a little different than Normal right now, so I tend to be more cautious about sharing what I see under such conditions. For example, after STEEP SELL OFFS, you often get great %-Gain bounces.  I have loved the short term set ups on SOLAR Stocks and MOMO TECH stocks this week, but the VIX has me very cautious!

It looks like the markets want to move higher , making new highs and that the correction is over, but the VIX is down below 12!  THAT has, in the past, caused the Markets to top or pullback. Notice below.

That said , Look at a 3 month chart of beaten down MOMO stocks like   DDD , XONE , SSYS , VJET, GOGO – as they “BOUNCE” here and look how these are acting lately on a 3 month chart SIFY , REDF , IGC , etc    Then go to SOLARS and see  TSL POPPED on earnings. It started to look like the slide could stop & a temporary bottom could come into the other Solars on their 3 month charts (like  YGE, SOL, SCTY, FSLR, JKS, etc – with MACD divergence at recent lows). At this point, its too risky for me to recommend any of that…I am in front of a computer all day ,& trading has been fast.   Caution is due in some areas, but everything doesnt fall all at once, so we can remain alert & flexible for new trade ideas to form as things get clearer.

LASTLY-  we are still watching for a big move coming in Metals / Miners.  Will it be UP or DOWN??  The TRIANGLE is reaching its APEX , the 50sma keeps rejecting Gold (see chart below) , but notice what I saw today. The DOLLAR DOWN/GOLD UP—-GOLD UP/DOLLAR DOWN correlation stopped working recently

A close up of that shows THE MARCH RALLY IN THE DOLLAR DROPPED GOLD. The recent rally OF THE SAME LENGTH, DID NOT DROP GOLD, and now the &USD is up against the 200sma.  Just something to take note of for now, as GOLD approaches that APEX.

THATS what I am watching today …Thanks for reading , please share this with your friends / Retweet / etc

~ALEX