CAN WE TALK?
FRIDAY MAY 9
Hi , This is me 
– Above you’ll see a picture of a Bear. See the difference? I am not a bear. I just thought that I should clear that up, because after my last report I was asked , “Why are you a bear?”
Really I am not a bear when it comes to Gold & Miners, but taking things step – by – step , there was simply a little downside coming and I’m not so sure that its done yet. I DO see both bullish and not so bullish things in the charts at the end of this week, so how about a quick review.
GDX WEEKLY – Everybody is staring at this pattern, so I almost feel like it wont quite play out the way it seems…but here is how it is set up anyways. Inverse H&S. For now, I must say that a weekly chart with price UNDER THE 10WMA struggles. Notice what GDX did the past few weeks under the 10WMA.
And what does that Stochatics tell you?
And there is more…
This is important to me – So please follow along. I partially mentioned it before, but now there is more.
In 2008 GOLD entered a bear market , and on a WEEKLY it could NOT re-gain the 30 WMA (Weekly Moving Average) on a closing basis. WHEN IT DID,THE BULL RETURNED, and it NEVER CLOSED BELOW IT AGAIN.
I studied that chart this week and found this to watch for. AFTER THE GOLD BEAR DIED – In 2009 , GOLD RODE UP THE 10WMA , when it broke down thru for consolidation, IT NEVER CLOSED BELOW THE 30WMA (as mentioned before). So notice that it rides up the 10WMA, then breaks down to the 30WMA. END OF STORY
Well guess what? After a long SELL OFF & Bear Market in GOLD…we finally just Broke above that 30 WMA for the 1st time in over a year (see below chart) . The chart below I drew up at the end of last week (may 2) , The question was…would we close below it TODAY?
The answer is…. We have now seen $GOLD ride above the 10WMA , and then drop down in consolidation to the 30WMA. at the end of this week it Still Never Closed Below It.
Well hey, Chalk one HUGE one up for the Bulls I.M.H.O.- I thought we could close below it this week , honestly.
I will be keeping an eye on that from here forward. We should NOT close below the 30WMA on a weekly close if we are doing what we did in 2008. I’m not saying all our dreams are dashed if it does close below it, just that what I am watching right now is exactly how the bear in Gold ended in 2008. If we break the 30WMA at the close next week, expect JUNE DEC lows to be revisited I.M.O.
I will be traveling next week, so I will be posting a lot less. I will likely Tweet if I see something worthy of notice, but I will not be in front of a computer all day like I usually am, so I just wanted to share the BIG PICTURE with you. This is what I will be watching as next week progresses. IMAGINE THIS: We sell off sharply into Friday and then reverse FAST by the close.
I would L-O-V-E that !! A deep candle on the weekly , that reverses and closes above the 30 WMA??? WOOO HOOO!! (But I never get what I want,
so lets just wait and see how this plays out).
Best wishes to all , and thanks to those who re-tweeted my Tweet about my report , so others could read it. That was kind of you and it didnt go unnoticed. ~ Alex
Great post, Alex. Thanks for sharing your new discovery with us – it is much appreciated.
Great post, Alex. Thanks for sharing your new discovery with us – it is much appreciated.
Thx to you too,Rob- for reading & kind words.
Thx to you too,Rob- for reading & kind words.
Great post Alex !
Thx MS C , appreciate the feedback (I also recognize you from BBT, so thanks for stopping in! )
Great post Alex !
Thx MS C , appreciate the feedback (I also recognize you from BBT, so thanks for stopping in! )
hey Alex, Thanks for the great insights! I’m trying to find your post on SU (Suncor) but can’t seem to find it. Could you please point me in the right direction…and any updates on this ticker would be appreciated. Thanks again!
Hi Deshy,
On vacation so I dont have good connection , but I’ll try to post a chart—I see SU as a bit extended. On the weekly its well above the 10wma , on a daily MACD crossed down & I think it may do a double top here. Doesnt mean that it’ll drop fast, but light volume up today & extended = consolidation or drop. SO If I owned it, trailing stop. If I didnt I wouldnt buy here, watch the 50sma. Click chart to enlarge
Thanks. And sorry to bother you on your time off…go and enjoy your vacation!
Not a bother at all :-]
hey Alex, Thanks for the great insights! I’m trying to find your post on SU (Suncor) but can’t seem to find it. Could you please point me in the right direction…and any updates on this ticker would be appreciated. Thanks again!
Hi Deshy,
On vacation so I dont have good connection , but I’ll try to post a chart—I see SU as a bit extended. On the weekly its well above the 10wma , on a daily MACD crossed down & I think it may do a double top here. Doesnt mean that it’ll drop fast, but light volume up today & extended = consolidation or drop. SO If I owned it, trailing stop. If I didnt I wouldnt buy here, watch the 50sma. Click chart to enlarge
Thanks. And sorry to bother you on your time off…go and enjoy your vacation!
Not a bother at all :-]