I’m Starting To Sell, Not Chase

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What a rocket ship ride Miners have been on.  Buying the lows has brought about some huge gains for some, and I had encouraged not selling too early with this type of set up.  Now it is time to start thinking about locking in gains, and not chasing these moves.  A pull back will come and that may lead to a buying opportunity.

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GDX - And we have a shooting star/reversal candle in  GDX and many of the Miners. A pull back usually follows.

GDX 2-8 at 15  

NEM - I was looking at that large base and encouraging those holding a Miner like this that it may not be time to sell yet,  just because the 200sma usually acts as resistance. This could keep running.

NEM 2-1

NEM - But now one has to start seeing this straight up move as a time to at least start locking in partial profits, and using a trailing stop on the rest.

NEM 2-8 Read More

GOLD PART 2 – IN Search Of A Bottom

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This is part 2 of the special weekend report discussing how we Search for a possible bottom in Gold. This half of the report will include many more charts with just the facts of what is happening in many areas.   Again, these facts keep both Bull and Bears unbiased.  They also indicate that GOLD may already be hammering in a bottom.  Miners especially have the hallmarks of a longer term low in place.

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This chart adds to out last discussion in part 1 and my Big Picture view that I have been pointing out for months now. I pointed this out in this DEC 11 chart .  It shows that with the SPX bull market , and the bear market in Gold, we have repeatedly seen Gold ICL'S ( deep trade-able  lows) and also Golds Bear Market Rally Peaks  moving inverse to  The SPX .  I drew this to make that clear.

T= a TOP  &  ICL = A LOW

  SPX RATIO VS GOLD

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I also said that I would be looking for a break down in this area ( A change). Here is my updated chart

GOLD SPX 2-6

So...

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GOLD PART 1 – In Search Of A Bottom

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  I believe that Gold is in a 3 phase bull market, with 2 phases already behind us.  After a 4+ yr bear market, there are finally solid signs of a bottom , in many different areas.   There is no gain in clinging to a bias, that is how one loses money in the markets,  but by gathering important relevant facts  you can develop a check list and watch as necessary things begin falling into place ( or not).   JUST THE FACTS.   Currently I see things falling into place, indicating  that  THE bottom is either already in place, or very close. This bear market may be coming to an end,  and catching the recent lows has already been very profitable.  Riding a renewed Bull will be very rewarding.  We will look at " Just the facts"  here in our extended weekend report. To the charts...

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First a review of recent bullish expectation in Miners: 

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REVIEW- In the last 2 weekend reports we watched the HUI & GDX in the bigger time frame. This is a monthly chart of HUI, on the edge of an important break out. It has spent 6 MONTHS at the lows,  a solid base on prior support. Today the HUI is near $150.  A break out.

HUI MONTHLY 3

  GDX  reversed from below  $12.50 and also looked ready to break out above from a 7 month base. Above $15-$16 is important.  It is now at $17 as of Feb 5. 🙂

GDX MONTHLY

We need to look at a lot more than just the Miners and Precious Metals, however. Currencies come into play, along with a variety of other influences, so we'll examine the Metals now, historically , and other factors that can indicate where we are in the process of a 3 phase bull market...

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