We Were Not Caught Off Guard

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If you have been here for a few months, then you know that this is what we have been waiting for.  Lets review.

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GDX -  Way back in August I started to ready us for a deeper pull back than many at that time would think is likely. You may recall that I kept saying that a solid target was $22-$24 and I said to look for that steep drop at the end of September or beginning of October.

This chart from Aug 22 is an example of me preparing us for a coming buying opportunity. I expected a bounce first, then a steep drop.

GDX 8-22b

My Weekly chart showed GDX broke the weekly uptrend line. A wkly trend line break for an 8 month trend is 'ugly', and indicates that a yearly cycle low is coming.  That magenta box became the likely target after that bounce at $22-$24 shown  in Sept/ Oct.   We would monitor things a little closer when we got there.  

GDX 8-27 wkly

We are there, time to monitor things a bit more closely. 🙂

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October 4th – Good Energy

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Lets take a look at what appears to be some good energy.

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 WTIC -

As expected, Oil is following through to the upside. Sitting near the August highs, it could form a handle on this mini cup , or it may just power higher to the June highs.

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WEEKEND WRAP UP Oct 1

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Our recent weeks of trading have had a lot of sideways chopping action.  My last report discussed how that was ending in Oil, and I think that the choppy action is about to end in the general markets too. Lets go to the charts.

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SPX - As price approaches an Apex we should see a nice break out and run. There is a lot of pressure built up in this consolidation. A break down could get ugly fast, but this leans bullishly at this point.

spx-9-30d  

SPX WKLY - This looks similar to the 2011 sell off, break out and back test in 2012.

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