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If you were recently stopped out of TQQQ or UPRO, would you really want to start a new 'long' or 'short' position on a Friday going into the weekend, with the NASDAQ on day 25 of its daily cycle?" Probably not, today is the last trading day of the week. Let's take a look at the QQQ, for those already positioned however.
QQQ - Again the Q's closed under the 10 sma and as it gets later in the daily cycle, the more it may not have enough buyers to push it to new highs. Even if it did, it might be a short lived push higher.
Earlier in the week I pictured the QQQs just dropping and tagging the 50sma, and I wasn't encouraging jumping back in, for fear of getting stopped out again.
So far this is playing out, but I wanted to mention something else...
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SPX - We see tails on the bottom of the last few day, so the selling is being met with buying. I would have expected more selling, maybe down to the 50sma, but this might have been a 1/2 cycle low.
NASDAQ - The NASDAQ is still under the 10sma, and is showing 'tails' over the last few days too. In June the NASDAQ only showed a small 4 days pop and then continued lower into a dcl.
Read More There is an old saying that says, "Never short a dull market." Why? Professional traders know that under the right conditions, a quiet or dull markets can suddenly break out into a strong move higher. I am going to discuss this a little later in the report, but right now, let's visit a couple of sectors that have been a bit more active.
The DJIA is at new all time highs. The SPX is still near the recent highs, but let's look at the Nasdaq & Transports...
QQQ- So this could be a bear flag, and we see that the NASDAQ cannot rise & close above the 10sma yet, even though the DOW is at all time highs. I would remain 'cautious' or alert until it does. This looks like it may want to drop down to the 50sma. Would this dip just be a 1/2 cycle low? Possibly, but it will need monitoring if it does drop further. APPL Earnings were bullish and AAPL is set to open at new all time highs, and this may help the NASDAQ.
TRANSPORTS - I pointed out that we didn't really even get a bounce in the transports, so I wondered if this was a warning sign. We got a drop, multi day pause, drop, multi day pause so far. Looking at the IYT now, I see a possible 5 wave move to the 200sma, and it is approaching oversold.
The Transports obviously broke down here, but at least a bounce to back test that 50sma is likely.
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