January 17th – Expectations

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With only 1 trading day behind us since the weekend report, nothing has really changed in our expectations for the various Market sectors, but some small changes did take place.  Let's  just take a look at what we expect going forward.

 

SPX & VIX - Using the chart below, I had mentioned on January 3rd that as the markets keep running higher, they continues to look to have that parabolic type climb to it.  Then I pointed out that with the VIX trading at 9, we should expect a POP in the VIX at some point, and a drop (temporary) in the run. Here I pointed out that LOWS come after a pop in the vix.

 

The VIX started to pop Tuesday and ...

SPX - The Markets started to roll over. It is day 40, so we are due for a pull back using cycle timing.  I would look for a drop to possibly dip under the 10sma for starters. The dips have been shallow, so we'll see how this plays out over the next few days.

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WEEKEND REPORT

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There is an old saying designed to help us avoid being fooled into believing that something is anything other than it really is. Maybe you are familiar with that saying, it goes like this...

“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck” 

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I think that this saying can also apply to a Bull too, or even when it comes to a Bull Market run.  Whether it is short term or longer term,  a Bull Run should be treated as one until it no longer looks like one. Another helpful saying in this regard has been , "Never short a Bull market".  Let's discuss a number of Bull Markets on the run here...

 

SPX - Well nothing has changed here and this is a weekly chart. This is a bull market and anyone trying to short this has been trampled down.

SPX - I have recommended just using a trailing stop to be able to continue riding this Bull ( UPRO, UDOW, TQQQ, ETC), and with these shallow sideways pull backs, the ride continued to another week of new highs.

 

Let's take a look at the DJIA too...

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Something For Everyone

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 The way the various sectors of the markets have been playing out, I would say that there is something out there for everyone.  We have 'short term trades', 'longer term set ups', 'trending runs', etc.

 

 Note:  Today is Friday,  the last day before another 3 day weekend in the U.S. Markets.  You may want to keep that in mind as you decide what you do or do not want to hold until Tuesday.

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