Warning Signs

When things start to look a little "off", or maybe something just doesn't  look quite right, it shouldn't be ignored.  You may be seeing cracks in the armor and those cracks can,  in due time,  lead to further break down. Lets review some recent warning signs pointed out here.

In late May and early June we discussed the Dow Theory - warnings signs were present.

This was the JUNE 4th chart



TRAN 6-29

We've also discussed the wedges in the various indexes...

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Weekend Report Bull Vs Bear

EDIT: This report was finished by Sunday late afternoon.  When  the futures opened, the Greece Crisis had taken a turn for the worse and the reaction was strong.   Interestingly, most of the reaction is as expected in this report.   I decided to wait until Monday morning 7 : 00 a.m. to release it to update as needed .  Not much needs updating, since the expectations were downside anyways.  Lets take a look at the charts/ report  as written Sunday, and I will add new thoughts in blue  if needed.

SPX WKLY - This week we still have the bearish wedge,  and a wick on top could signal a drop

SPX WKLY 6-26  

NASDAQ - several indicators are showing weakness on the weekly chart


EDIT:   It has been announced that Greece will not open their Banks until after July 7th and their stock market is closed. ATM's will only allow 60 Euro withdrawls. Our futures are down as expected above,  but knee jerk reactions do not always have strong follow through after the panic subsides. We will have to let the dust settle. Next is IWM, USD, OIL, NATGAS, Precious Metals, etc


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Thursday the Dow shot up  230 points.  Friday the Dow sold off, down over 100 points. Monday the Dow shot up  166 points. Tuesday the Dow went  up another 60 points, but sold off and  gave most of it up into the close. Wednesday we gapped down and closed down 178 points.  Currently at 6 a.m. , the Dow futures are up 100 points.  Volatility is the order of the day,  I should have used a picture of a roller-coaster.


SPX -  I pointed out these wedges and said I was expecting a sell off.  Now we have a back test of the trend line break and a tag of the 50sma. Will this hold and  give us a genuine break higher to new highs, or just more up & down action?

SPX 6-24  

IWM - the IWM actually already broke to new highs, but I expected a back test, as shown here

IWM 6-23

This is where it gets interesting...

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