More Of The Same
Writing this report is tough, because its going to sound a little like yesterdays.
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Exercising Patience
In some situations, patience just doesn't just come naturally. We need to train ourselves to be patient. Here at Chartfreak, while looking at a few nice trade set ups here and there, we've really been waiting patiently for...
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MESMERZING !
It gets mesmerizing & hypnotic if you stare at it too long. Yes, the picture above, but also the Metals and miners markets. I wanted to just pop in intra-day and address a few thoughts, I am getting some "Concerns" about Miners dropping even lower here. Yes, GDX is lower and Miners look weak, but in a drop to a daily cycle low...that is what fools everyone. Let me show you 3 charts that can help us to gain confidence.
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Comfortable- But Never Overly Relaxed
Right now I am comfortable with the present information indicating that we did see an ICL in Early November. It also appears that when we look at Gold and Miners, they have moved forward in what is likely going to be a "Right Translated" daily cycle. There is no way to KNOW this ahead of time, but what This means is that it "Peaks" its highest point in that Daily Cycle more than halfway through it. That also means that it will break to new highs once it has found its daily cycle low and reverses higher. So while I am comfortable that things are still lining up properly... I never like to get Overly Comfortable. The markets can do anything , so we stay alert . Lets examine what the Gold/ Silver/ Miners are looking like after last week, and then discuss a few other things.
Gold On Friday after the jobs report ended like this -
Notice this important fact about Gold ...
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Jobs Report
Today we get the Friday Jobs Report. Yes...FRIDAY! If you've followed my reports for the past 4 Fridays, it has been a day for GOLD shake outs. This is GOLD as I start writing, we might as well expect some shaking . Looking at this chart , however, You can see that a drop below the bottom trend line (& later a recovery) would just be more noise.
We are also anticipating a Daily Cycle Low, so a drop in GOLD and Miners is possible, but should lead to a higher low. REMEMBER - Daily Cycles can last 20 + days ...
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I Think Its Time
After looking at a few thousand charts yesterday , I am thinking that it might just be time to take some positions if you dont have one. Though we "COULD" dip down into a daily cycle low, I again have to wonder if that SMACK DOWN last Friday-Monday was the end of a short daily cycle. THAT would mean we are in the 2nd DCYcle. Also looking at charts of many Miners yesterday, they look like good set ups , some have very little downside risk vs what could be a nice %-Gain to the upside. Take a look with me and see what you think.
GOLD 4 hr chart this morning. Looks pretty bullish as I write (7:00 A.M.)
SO I mention above a possible future DCL with the Jobs report Friday, but this cup & Handle also looks like it could POP higher for a couple of days. IF a DCL is still ahead, it THEN may only drop to a DCL that isnt much lower than right here if break out of this cup/handle soon. LOOK AGAIN at GOLD WKLY as of yesterday...
Read MoreObservations and Notes on an Ugly Core vs a Healthy Core
Today I wanted to mention a couple of observations in the Metals markets and the Dollar. Also - you may want to re-read yesterdays report, it came out late in the day and really not much has changed. I am still trying to figure out if that HUGE move by GOLD & SILVER Monday indicates the end of a short first daily cycle , and the start of a new one? If so GOLD would likely POP higher soon (Jobs report? ) Or, As mentioned, was that strong slam down & reversal just putting in a daily cycle high and now we drift down to a daily cycle low. THIS chart was posted to show that idea in GDX 2008 lows.
You want to be in for the second leg up
Some have stated that the recent surge in the DOLLAR (And it continues overnight) shows extremely bullish conditions and they fear that GOLD will crumble as the Dollar plows higher.
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THAT WAS BULLISH
Dec 2, 2014
The move made by GOLD & SILVER was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities. The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th, that an ICL (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY, ( That 1/2 day light volume day? yeah right) ... SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward. This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was "NO".
GOLD - The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.
Gold is currently down $13 as I write...is that concerning? ...
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DID YOU SEE ‘IT’ THIS TIME?
Nov 25 PART 1 This first part of this report I wrote at Noon time Tuesday.
AUDIO LINK click here / then click 'download' - then click "open" & return here to follow charts when you hear the audio
Follow my thinking on this one : Earlier I discussed the SWISS BANK REFERENDUM and how some may be cautious going into the weekend with that on the table. Anyone who has entered trades in the Gold & Silver markets may be planning on Selling Friday, especially if they didn't buy near the lows and cant take a possible "Gap Down" Monday after the vote. I have pointed out that for the past 3 Fridays People are nervous holding metals positions into the weekend. I see on several Blogs each week, "I am NOT holding Miners into the weekend" and then Friday there is a sell off in GOLD only to see that later it closes GREEN . Interesting .
Could selling this week be "The Final Shake Out / Leave many behind move" before a nice break out higher? Break out? Yes, above the 50sma on $GOLD $GDX $GDXJ
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