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Nov 21, 2014 Freaky Friday 6:00A.M.
Will they sell Metals off? Will they buy it back? Will Metals break out higher going into the weekend, when less people are likley to BUY & HOLD ? Its hard to know exactly what we will see, but lately Fridays have been exciting in the Metals markets, so I got up at 5 a.m. today to see if the Friday shenanigans that occurred in Gold the past 2 Fridays would return. So far, it seems likely. Well, if you've read my prior reports, then you know what I am looking for at the end of Friday on the weekly charts, so I will just touch on a few things here and then take a look at a couple of other interesting chart developments elsehwere.
First- this is the "SNAPSHOT" I woke up to... whats your first thought?
It looks like another dollar rally coming , and a Gold slam down, but notice this ....
Read More Nov 20,2014 (also known as The Day After )
Well, Never a dull moment of a Fed Day, huh? Some have written and asked if "Lock out" is out of the way now. I would say no. It may be even more of a Lock Out I cannot imagine that this "SHAKEOUT" was bought by many either. We had a shake out below that critical $1179 area and it again recovered. Did any buy? I know 2 of my readers wrote that he / she bought (knowing in advance that a shake out could happen). THAT was brave! I imagine that MORE people grabbed DUST, went short , or bailed out. Some wrote and told me that they were advised to add to DUST by other letter writers. Let me show you how I walk through this roller-coaster ride. Overnight...how did GOLD react? Charts below.
AUDIO LINK click here, click download/ click "OPEN" - return to follow charts
GOLD FOR PERSPECTIVE- The whole story so far
Amazing how "Orderly" that chart looks in Hindsight, isnt it? so...
Read More Nov 19, Wednesday
Well, Fed minutes, thats always fun! Why? Whatever you see happen this morning may be undone by the close. Or subtle moves may become explosive moves, and I mean in either direction, right? So Today I'm just doing a this report to point out a couple of things of interest. Likely you noticed that We have been discussing Metals and Miners a lot lately. That is because I have wanted to walk you through a day by day bottoming process and show you what I look for. It isnt reassuring to just hear someone say "GO LONG" and you blindly jump in only to get knocked back out. This way we have now already discussed important areas to watch and with the fed minutes we are prepared for any volatility that may follow. I also want to point out a couple of other interesting areas , so lets hit a couple of charts. I will start with reminders to prepare us for Fed Minutes.
To hear AUDIO click here / Then click 'download', then click OPEN . when U hear audio - return to follow the charts here
GOLD NOV 7 - Pre mkt I saw a shake out in real time, so I pointed out an important part of the "Shake Out" was to recover June 2013 lows of $1179 again on a weekly basis, using this chart in the weekend report.
After days of volatility , we see that...
Read More Nov 15, 2014 Weekend Report
I was driving to a formal event today when suddenly I saw what appeared to be a 'sign' on the side of the road, so I pulled over and there we were...3 of us looking pretty bullish ! For my 2 new friends it came naturally, but for me it has been building for over a week. If you recall my article written pre-mkt last Friday (Nov 7), I felt that I had seen a legitimate "SHAKE OUT" in the overnight action and said that I was buying in the pre-market . I also mentioned that confirmation would likely come this week and I outlined briefly what I would be looking for. (If you're new here, you may want to read the articles outlining my expectations. A short one last Friday is here Scary yet Beautiful Or the weekend report Bears get tired too)...
We will now review whether conditions have been met to increase the likely-hood of a Bottom being put in place Friday Nov 7 for GOLD, Wednesday for Miners. ALSO I NEED TO BE CLEAR...A Bottom here would not necessarily mean THE BOTTOM at this point, but certainly weeks of gains. To the Charts!
AUDIO version here click here then click 'download' & 'OPEN' to play
-Then come back & follow the charts
Last Weeks chart - Broke 1.5 yrs support and MOST called for a cascade sell off . To me, likely a SHAKE OUT.
BEARS had MANY reports of a "Break down in Gold & Imminent crash targets" (I know because 5 of my readers emailed me those reports! ) Some were fearful and others concern for my well being...I thank you for that. HOWEVER-
Read More Nov 14 - Morning Report
I had a report written by 9:15 A.M. today showing positive signs in the Gold overnight, which were leading me to believe that the "WEEKLY" charts would end with GOLD putting in another weekly reversal candle. The action yesterday in Miners was mentioned in yesterdays report and I said that GDX had broken below its recent uptrend line and would need to recover to be a shake out and not a break down. It has. GDX & GDXJ are both WELL ABOVE their 10sma & Volumes today is strong. So based on all the reports from me for the past week or so- what do you think we are seeing?
Yesterday there was weakness in the Miners & I posted an update report saying that DEC 2013 lows had a momentary flush of the lows and 'possibly' we could see the same, but I still was not expecting a PLUNGE lower to $1000 or $800 (YET) . I have been saying that I expected that we are at lows and would have a nice rally for at least the next few weeks. I will now share a couple of the charts that I had for this mornings report, but Gold & Silver have exploded higher and I will tell you what I think we are seeing here and how you can benefit.
At 9:00 A.M. I was going to point out that GOLD held prior support & Reversed ( That was Bullish) (Click to enlarge)
As I was finishing my report at 9:15, it started to break higher (breaking out?)
Then...
Read More 2:45 P.M. Nov 13. (I apologize for the late "Alert" , the auto Email alert system apparently was down when I posted this)
Many have asked that I occasionally show what I watch during the day and post here. I don't want to watch and report on every little wiggle, but there are interesting things to look at . Especially since this mornings report I showed a possible stab at a lower low still fitting the cycle counts & Elliot wave ,etc ...so let me show you quickly what I am watching. it is more bearish for Gold Miners, but...so far GDX and GDXJ do remain above the 10sma on a daily chart (not shown) . So these are the intra-day wiggles that I look at. More charts / less words here so I can post quickly .
GOLD looks fine (so far) ...many shake outs , but regains support areas. (Click to enlarge)
If "MINERS LEAD"..are they holding up ok? They remain above the 10sma so far, BUT...
Read More Mid day update / Miners selling off writing at 12:05 p.m.
When I start seeing a sell off in Miners after I feel that I've done all my homework , I dont panic - I just need to look and see what might be happening. What (if anything) should limit the sell off? Is it normal? is it ugly or extreme? So lets review a couple of quick charts that I threw together and see where we might be . First off, GOLD is not selling off , but are Miners leading? What do I look for with GOLD?
GOLD (Click to enlarge)
So Gold is holding up, what about Miners? Are they shaking some out, or are they about to collapse?...
Read More Nov 12 10:00 A.M. Eastern
I am pretty focused on the Metals & Miners recently, but If you missed the run up in COAL and wanted to get in, it may be setting up for another leg up after a recent pause. These 3 charts show that the recent pullback is nearing support and could offer a low risk entry, because your stop is safely below support areas.
And also ....
Read More Nov 10, 2014
Mondays action was what ... Scary? Yes, scary if you had a long position. If you didnt have a position, maybe it was time to take one! Was this another chance to buy in the Area near the lows ? ...or...Was today a chance to go short for the coming plunge? I ask that because I know many (not here necessarily) viewed today as "Weakness". 'The Bulls have no strength , no follow through, No buyers and the Bears are still alive and well.' And while I have to admit that that COULD be the case, I doubt it. Bottoming is often called a "Bottoming Process" because the battle of the bulls & bears doesnt allow a sell off or a rally - At First. If you examine previous "bottoms", you'll see that many act just like this before they take off upside. If it's a Real Bottom, that battle often drops off the New buyers, and leaves them behind.
AUDIO LINK CLICK HERE AUDIO LINK
Look at prior lows for Example: The reversal candle made the lows, then the next week sold at least 1/2 way down that candle
So what we see happening also happened at June 2013 , Dec 2013 lows, May 2014 lows ...Now
Read More Nov 7 Weekend Report (part 2)-
Bear on a Tear! Bears can be powerful when on the attack, and Bear Market sell-offs are no different! Sometimes, however, they just get tired. In Part 1, I was pointing out a few other hated sectors that have been selling off viciously and showing how they are setting up at their lows in various ways. We caught Energy (XLE) the day of the lows mid October, and they bounced and double bottomed and so on. COAL / Uranium stocks similar...so what about Gold, Silver, & Miners? LAST WEEK I saw some interesting things and want to share them with you now. To The Charts!
Audio & what I wrote are almost the same, audio is 20 minutes, if you dont have time, reading it is almost the same. AUDIO = click here wkend report part 2
GOLD WEEKLY
Gold rejected the lower price/break down last week and closed at the highs, just shy of breaking back into that trading area. We want to see that this week. Will we? Look at the Middle indicator (Histogram) & the RSI. At new Price lows , they usually drops too. We hit new price lows, break down lows, and the Hist held up. I like that divergence.
At the end of Part 1 I said ...As I write GOLD is dropping straight down $6 and it will again be difficult to post a BULLISH report, but I would actually like to see GOLD crash down to $1154!! I would! (He said as GOLD continues to drop) 
We are now down $12 to $1166. I am O.K. with that.
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