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Friday November 20, 2015
Read MoreThe picture started getting clearer in many sectors of the market after the Fed Minutes were released Wednesday afternoon. Lets take a look.
SPX / SPY - Looking for an overhead follow through and within the timing for a DCL. The 200sma acted as resistance.
Bullish Break through, I expect higher prices and will watch how the follow through plays out.
Read MoreWe saw GOLD break to new yearly lows yesterday and I read in several different places that people were going short for the drop to below $1000 (Again). We will discuss why I do not agree that this is the time to be going short. NATGAS remains interesting and OIL and Energy Stocks continue to have my attention too, so First lets look at a few other charts.
SPX - The markets stalled at the 200sma and a down trend line that I mentioned earlier. We could drop to the 50sma, but timing wise, we are due to go higher soon.This may be a pause before breaking above that 200sma.
The USD has been strong , but it may be due for a rest. Yesterday was a short term topping or reversal candle, but it is not a strongly reliable one. If the dollar is due for a rest, what might that do for the commodities that are now being heavily shorted?
Read MoreThe Markets always have that Ebb and Flow action where they pull back and push forward. We have been in the timing for some change as mentioned in the weekend report, and today we did get those winds of change blowing through. lets take a look...
In the weekend report the SPX chart pointed out possible turning points, seen here.
Here I am pointing out the action in the SPY, the day ended with 117 million. We are in the timing for a DCL (Daily Cycle Low, so I do believe that today was a DCL. If this pop drops ( to the 50sma?), I think support will hold. This is a buy with a stop below the 50 sma.
Read MoreThis week various sectors actually made some moves that could affect the short and longer term outlook. Lets dig right in and review what has happened.
SPX - Expecting a pullback with resistance at former highs, this is wedge was posted and a possible channel could form.
SPX - The channel has been broken, but thats not bearish by itself yet. The SPX tagged the 38% retrace. We could even fall further this week to the purple dotted trend line for a back test. This is also the 50% retrace and the 50sma is there, so good support could be found just below current price. I do expect a bounce soon.
This is not bearish at this point, but let me show you something a little more concerning here...
Read MoreAs I begin writing this report, it looks like OIL may be ready to bounce here. I wanted to take this time to examine the evidence and discuss my recent expectations in the Oil markets.
WTIC - Nov 11 this was our picture of OIL. Please note the $42.58 . Oil was not acting the way that it should early in a 2nd daily cycle and the high volume selling was noteworthy.
Now lets take a closer look on Nov 12 and discuss the implications.
Read MoreI wanted to discuss OIL a little later in this report this morning, since it is acting a little weaker than expected. We'll start with our market review.
We expected a small pull back in the markets, and this chart showed where the Fib #'s would be. There was also a channel included.
We have reached that lower channel line and the 20sma. That could act as support, but the above chart also has the 38% Fib # at 2022 and we also see the 50sma and the purple break out in that area. That means the selling may not be over yet.
Read MoreThere was no significant change in most of what was covered in yesterdays report. Draghi is scheduled to speak in London this morning, could his speech change things? It has in the past. For now, lets just do a review of what we've been looking for.
With a pullback due in the SPX, I drew this possibility yesterday. We could Tag the 50sma and lower trend line.
A reversal yesterday doesn't change the idea that we will still pull back, so I've added the fib #'s. We could bounce & still drop to the 50sma
Read MoreAs mentioned in the weekend report, Gold & Silver have been selling off at a very rapid rate, and I think that they should be due for at least a bounce. I want to take a look at that idea in this report, but first a review of the markets.
The markets don't look bearish, but this possible rising wedge formed by Nov 4.
SPX currently- This does not have to drop too far, it could even go sideways.
Read MoreFrom the time of the Fed Meeting to the Jobs report Friday, we have had a lot of action in the markets. Action in the markets is what draws our charts, and we have an interesting mixture of charts to examine this weekend, so lets get to the 36 charts that I have prepared 🙂
Lets start with the $USD WKLY. Nov 4 this looked too legit to quit, but we had to wait for Friday to see if out Dollar break out was real.
$USD - legitimate break out. This could have major implications.
Lets look at the Dollar on a daily basis...
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