MESMERZING !
It gets mesmerizing & hypnotic if you stare at it too long. Yes, the picture above, but also the Metals and miners markets. I wanted to just pop in intra-day and address a few thoughts, I am getting some "Concerns" about Miners dropping even lower here. Yes, GDX is lower and Miners look weak, but in a drop to a daily cycle low...that is what fools everyone. Let me show you 3 charts that can help us to gain confidence.
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Comfortable- But Never Overly Relaxed
Right now I am comfortable with the present information indicating that we did see an ICL in Early November. It also appears that when we look at Gold and Miners, they have moved forward in what is likely going to be a "Right Translated" daily cycle. There is no way to KNOW this ahead of time, but what This means is that it "Peaks" its highest point in that Daily Cycle more than halfway through it. That also means that it will break to new highs once it has found its daily cycle low and reverses higher. So while I am comfortable that things are still lining up properly... I never like to get Overly Comfortable. The markets can do anything , so we stay alert . Lets examine what the Gold/ Silver/ Miners are looking like after last week, and then discuss a few other things.
Gold On Friday after the jobs report ended like this -
Notice this important fact about Gold ...
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Jobs Report
Today we get the Friday Jobs Report. Yes...FRIDAY! If you've followed my reports for the past 4 Fridays, it has been a day for GOLD shake outs. This is GOLD as I start writing, we might as well expect some shaking . Looking at this chart , however, You can see that a drop below the bottom trend line (& later a recovery) would just be more noise.
We are also anticipating a Daily Cycle Low, so a drop in GOLD and Miners is possible, but should lead to a higher low. REMEMBER - Daily Cycles can last 20 + days ...
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I Think Its Time
After looking at a few thousand charts yesterday , I am thinking that it might just be time to take some positions if you dont have one. Though we "COULD" dip down into a daily cycle low, I again have to wonder if that SMACK DOWN last Friday-Monday was the end of a short daily cycle. THAT would mean we are in the 2nd DCYcle. Also looking at charts of many Miners yesterday, they look like good set ups , some have very little downside risk vs what could be a nice %-Gain to the upside. Take a look with me and see what you think.
GOLD 4 hr chart this morning. Looks pretty bullish as I write (7:00 A.M.)
SO I mention above a possible future DCL with the Jobs report Friday, but this cup & Handle also looks like it could POP higher for a couple of days. IF a DCL is still ahead, it THEN may only drop to a DCL that isnt much lower than right here if break out of this cup/handle soon. LOOK AGAIN at GOLD WKLY as of yesterday...
Read MoreObservations and Notes on an Ugly Core vs a Healthy Core
Today I wanted to mention a couple of observations in the Metals markets and the Dollar. Also - you may want to re-read yesterdays report, it came out late in the day and really not much has changed. I am still trying to figure out if that HUGE move by GOLD & SILVER Monday indicates the end of a short first daily cycle , and the start of a new one? If so GOLD would likely POP higher soon (Jobs report? ) Or, As mentioned, was that strong slam down & reversal just putting in a daily cycle high and now we drift down to a daily cycle low. THIS chart was posted to show that idea in GDX 2008 lows.
You want to be in for the second leg up
Some have stated that the recent surge in the DOLLAR (And it continues overnight) shows extremely bullish conditions and they fear that GOLD will crumble as the Dollar plows higher.
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THAT WAS BULLISH
Dec 2, 2014
The move made by GOLD & SILVER was very bullish in my opinion. Any pullback from here will be monitored, but likely as BUY opportunities. The set up is great because it confirmed what I had been mentioning from Nov 7th, that an ICL (Those meaningful trade-able lows) was in place. We witnessed MANY shake outs each Friday along the way and FRIDAY, ( That 1/2 day light volume day? yeah right) ... SHOOK THE FOUNDATIONS, but the RECOVERY was just as breathtaking if not more so. Lets examine what it means going forward. This was what happened Before the SWISS VOTE on Gold and what happened AFTER the VOTE was "NO".
GOLD - The shake out / Recovery was an explosive bull move.
Gold is currently down $13 as I write...is that concerning? ...
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DID YOU SEE ‘IT’ THIS TIME?
Nov 25 PART 1 This first part of this report I wrote at Noon time Tuesday.
AUDIO LINK click here / then click 'download' - then click "open" & return here to follow charts when you hear the audio
Follow my thinking on this one : Earlier I discussed the SWISS BANK REFERENDUM and how some may be cautious going into the weekend with that on the table. Anyone who has entered trades in the Gold & Silver markets may be planning on Selling Friday, especially if they didn't buy near the lows and cant take a possible "Gap Down" Monday after the vote. I have pointed out that for the past 3 Fridays People are nervous holding metals positions into the weekend. I see on several Blogs each week, "I am NOT holding Miners into the weekend" and then Friday there is a sell off in GOLD only to see that later it closes GREEN . Interesting .
Could selling this week be "The Final Shake Out / Leave many behind move" before a nice break out higher? Break out? Yes, above the 50sma on $GOLD $GDX $GDXJ
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Things To Be Aware Of
Nov 25, 2014 AUDIO HERE http://www.screencast.com/t/X77Ul4hyP
We have a light volume / Holiday shortened trading week in the U.S. Mkts this week , so In todays report I just wanted to point out a few things that are Noteworthy.
BRIEFLY let me just mention that the SWISS Referendum. It is a vote that takes place on Nov 30 deciding 2 things actually. 1. Whether or not the Swiss National Bank should be barred from further selling of their gold reserves. 2. It also would mandate that they need to more than Double current reserves! THIS VOTE takes place .....................SUNDAY. Its important to note because it may influence how you are positioned going into the weekend. I believe the vote could be a "catalyst" for strong POP in Gold Monday or possibly even a sell off into a somewhat early Daily cycle low. If you want my opinion, I think a NO VOTE is expected and so its already baked in. A YES vote would cause a strong rally , because there are bullish implications ( Swiss Bank Cant sell Gold / Swiss Bank must begin buying / Accumulating Gold (they currently hold 8% of assets in Gold and the vote would mandate accumulating and holding at least 20% over time). There is more , but that's enough to know for now. Here is how I am looking at GOLD from day to day.
GOLD Please notice the "NOISE" zone. (Click chart)
It seems that when GOLD drops only $5- $8 , I get emails asking for an update. I am told that accumulation is lightening and this is apparently bearish, etc. Realistically, GOLD cannot stand at 1 price all week, it has to be allowed to rise & fall...to fluctuate (likely that could occur until that NOV 30 vote). Please notice this GOLD NOISE ZONE in the chart above . Gold in this area need no update, its acting normally. A break out or break down might need to be addressed.
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It seems that when GOLD drops only $5- $8 , I get emails asking for an update. I am told that accumulation is lightening and this is apparently bearish, etc. Realistically, GOLD cannot stand at 1 price all week, it has to be allowed to rise & fall...to fluctuate (likely that could occur until that NOV 30 vote). Please notice this GOLD NOISE ZONE in the chart above . Gold in this area need no update, its acting normally. A break out or break down might need to be addressed.
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Am I Comfortable In Shorts Here?
Nov 23 Weekend report (Sunday 5 p.m.)
Someone asked me to let them know when I'm comfortable shorting the Gold/Silver market in the next few days, especially since The $USD Popped Friday. I'm glad you asked! While there always may be some 'short term' success in a short position from day to day... I still believe that it will end badly for stubborn shorts in the next few weeks. If you have been reading my reports for the past 2 weeks then you know what my thinking has been. Not only does it remain the same, but I believe we could get an accelerated move upside after a few minor dips in the coming weeks and I would NOT want to be caught in shorts out in those waters. Let me show you why...
Recall that In this Friday Nov 7th report here - http://www.chartfreak.com/2014/11/07/scary-yet-beautiful/ ( And the following wkend report) I called the GOLD lows Pre-Market.
( Audio link here : Nov 23 wkend report - Click the link, click "Download" then click "OPEN" & return here to follow along )
SO 2 weeks later, with those LOWS still in place, I want you to note this $GOLD / $USD CHART last May 2014 :
Once the GOLD lows were in, In MAY the dollar popped and GOLD resisted.
DID you notice that on Friday this week the $USD popped, and $GOLD went up too?
Notice also on the above chart what Going short on a reversal after the lows lead to pain. Also ...
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Once the GOLD lows were in, In MAY the dollar popped and GOLD resisted.
DID you notice that on Friday this week the $USD popped, and $GOLD went up too?
Notice also on the above chart what Going short on a reversal after the lows lead to pain. Also ...
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